دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 36 3 2025 09 23 A Multidimensional Assessment of Vulnerability of Rural Areas to Natural Hazard Risks (Case Study: Rural Regions of Marivan County) ارزیابی چندبعدی سطح آسیب‌پذیری نواحی روستایی در برابر ریسک مخاطرات طبیعی (مطالعه موردی: نواحی روستایی شهرستان مریوان) 185 214 30087 10.22108/gep.2025.146080.1739 FA عبدالمجید احمدی استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران سوران منوچهری دانش آموخته دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران Journal Article 2025 07 27 Abstract Reducing vulnerability is a fundamental principle in the risk-management approach to enhancing the resilience of human settlements. Achieving this requires a comprehensive assessment of the factors influencing vulnerability followed by targeted planning based on the identified vulnerability levels within communities. This applied research was conducted in the rural areas of Marivan County, Kurdistan Province, by using a descriptive-analytical methodology and an inductive approach. The study evaluated exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity—key components of vulnerability in the selected villages—and generalized the vulnerability levels across the entire county using GIS spatial-statistics tools, such as Inverse-Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation, kriging density, and Moran’s spatial autocorrelation, focusing on two primary hazards: earthquakes and land subsidence resulting from prolonged drought and excessive water extraction. The status of settlements was assessed across economic, social, natural, and physical variables defined through consensus in a Delphi group and corroborated with input from villagers in the sample communities. The findings revealed that vulnerability levels in the eastern rural settlements significantly differed from those in the central and western regions of the county. This disparity reflected greater distance from the city center, smaller population sizes, a center-periphery development pattern, low adaptive capacity, and limited economic diversity. Inequalities and spatial variations in vulnerability exhibited a clustered pattern, indicating a spatial bipolarity between areas of high and low vulnerability. Keywords: Spatial Analysis, Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptation, Natural Hazard Risks, Rural Villages, Marivan County. Introduction Vulnerability to natural hazards is a persistent and multifaceted challenge impacting rural development, especially in areas where ecological fragility intersects with infrastructural deprivation. In the rural districts of Marivan County located in Iran’s Kurdistan Province, a convergence of seismic instability, prolonged droughts, excessive groundwater extraction, and land subsidence has created a landscape of chronic risk. Here, vulnerability exceeds mere exposure to hazards; it is amplified by systemic deficiencies in social, economic, environmental, and institutional domains. This paper conceptualized vulnerability through a triad of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, drawing on global frameworks, such as the United Nations’ Hyogo and Sendai strategies, and informed by theoretical insights from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The research posited that risk transforms into disaster only when it intersects with the susceptibility of a population, which is contingent upon how communities adapt, cope, and recover. In Marivan, these vulnerabilities exhibited spatial layering, revealing clusters of rural settlements that were either increasingly resilient or perilously exposed. The central and western districts of the county benefiting from richer ecological resources and proximity to trade and tourism possessed comparatively greater adaptive capacity. In contrast, the eastern regions—particularly Sarshiv, Golchidar, and Komasi—remained developmentally marginalized, structurally fragile, and highly susceptible to cascading environmental threats. By employing a spatially differentiated and theoretically grounded approach, this research aimed to elucidate how localized vulnerabilities corresponded with broader patterns of underdevelopment and policy neglect, ultimately providing an evidence-based foundation for targeted interventions. Materials & Methods Given the complexity and sensitivity of the border region under study, traditional data collection methods presented significant challenges. Many official datasets were either unavailable or intentionally withheld due to the strategic nature of the county’s location. To address these limitations, the research employed a hybrid methodology that combined participatory evaluation with geospatial modeling. A key component of this methodology was the establishment of a Delphi panel consisting of 18 local experts, including geographers, sociologists, agricultural specialists, and rural development practitioners. This panel conducted a 3-round consensus-based evaluation of selected sample villages across all rural districts. Village headmen also contributed data through structured questionnaires addressing the realities of exposure, sensitivity, and resilience on the ground. Villages were scored on a 5-point scale across multiple indicators relevant to each component of vulnerability. For exposure, indicators included proximity to active fault lines, susceptibility to drought, and signs of subsidence due to groundwater depletion. Sensitivity was assessed through demographic profiles, economic dependence, land use patterns, and ecological degradation. Adaptive capacity was evaluated based on infrastructure access, presence of functional cooperatives, involvement of women in economic activities, and institutional responsiveness. Negative indicators, such as unemployment or excessive water extraction, were inverted in scoring to reflect an increase in vulnerability. In instances where quantitative data were absent, qualitative proxies and triangulated responses from local administrators were utilized. Scores were further validated and refined through group deliberations and feedback loops within the Delphi panel. To extrapolate findings to non-sampled villages, the study applied Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation and employed Moran’s I statistic to assess spatial autocorrelation in vulnerability distribution. Kernel density maps were generated to visualize areas of concern. The final vulnerability index was calculated using the formula of Vulnerability = (Exposure + Sensitivity) – Adaptive Capacity, highlighting how resilience could mitigate the impacts of hazards even in areas with significant exposure. Research Findings The results revealed a layered and spatially uneven picture of vulnerability in Marivan County. Regarding exposure to earthquakes, 38% of villages—primarily in the eastern zone—were located within one kilometer of active fault lines. These villages exhibited the weakest infrastructure and the least access to emergency services. A separate yet equally alarming finding pertained to groundwater depletion and subsidence risks, which were concentrated in the western and central regions due to excessive agricultural water usage, illegal wells, and poorly regulated tourism developments. Nearly 40% of villages were classified as vulnerable to these hydro-ecological threats. Sensitivity displayed a similarly troubling pattern. Approximately 42% of villages representing 44% of the rural population exhibited high sensitivity. These communities were characterized by fragile livelihoods, fragmented landholdings, aging populations, and degraded natural resource bases. Many villages lacked diversified income sources and relied heavily on traditional agriculture or grazing, which had long surpassed ecological thresholds. Adaptive capacity, the third and perhaps most critical pillar, revealed the deepest disparities. Nearly half of all villages were poorly scored with limited access to schools, clinics, piped water, and paved roads. Women’s economic participation was minimal in most settlements with only a single handicrafts workshop identified throughout the county. However, some western zones, such as Zaribar and Khaw-Mirabad, stood out as exceptions. These areas demonstrated greater resilience bolstered by border trade, tourism growth, and better integration into urban supply chains. Residents reported more diversified livelihoods and actively participated in local decision-making processes. When synthesizing all three dimensions of vulnerability, significant spatial clustering emerged. Approximately 43.2% of villages, primarily in the central and western zones, exhibited relatively low vulnerability, while 41.7% fell into high-risk categories, particularly in eastern districts. Villages with populations under 200 residents showed disproportionately high vulnerability, reflecting both their isolation and lack of service provision. Moran’s Index confirmed a strong spatial autocorrelation, with vulnerability clustering around administrative and ecological fault lines. Kernel density estimations reinforced this finding, illustrating the concentration of low-resilience areas in the east and pockets of relative resilience in the west. This analysis revealed a distinct east-west divide—a dichotomy in development and risk exposure that threatened long-term spatial equity. Discussion of Results & Conclusion The analysis revealed significant spatial and structural disparities between the eastern rural districts (Komasi, Sarshiv, Golchidar) and the western and central districts (Khavmirabad, Sarkal, Zaribar). Continuation of this trend threatened to further disrupt development and livelihoods in the region. To mitigate vulnerability, it is crucial to enhance infrastructure and diversify the economy—particularly by promoting tourism, medicinal plant cultivation, and a semi-industrial livestock sector. Supporting educated youth and developing growth hubs in medium-sized villages will contribute to a more balanced spatial development. Furthermore, the regional crisis management system should transition from a reactive approach to one that emphasizes risk management, focusing on reducing vulnerability, prevention, and resilience building. Forward-looking planning that incorporates multi-risk assessments with clearly defined roles for government and local institutions will be a significant step toward ensuring the long-term sustainability of rural communities. The findings of this study highlighted the structural asymmetries and developmental contradictions inherent in the rural landscape of Marivan County. Vulnerability is not merely a reaction to external threats; it is a product of entrenched inequalities regarding access to resources, infrastructure, and institutional support. The stark contrast between the fragility of the eastern districts and the resilience of the western districts exemplified a broader spatial injustice rooted in decades of uneven policy attention and investment. The eastern districts were trapped in a debilitating cycle of poverty, ecological degradation, and socio-economic exclusion. Despite their proximity to strategic water reservoirs, such as the Garan and Azad dams, these communities lacked formal water rights and the necessary infrastructure to benefit from this closeness. Their economies remained narrowly focused on low-yield livestock farming and manual labor, resulting in high rates of youth outmigration and land abandonment. In contrast, the western districts showcasing how diversified economic activities—such as trade, tourism, and agriculture—could help buffer communities against vulnerabilities, even in the face of similar environmental threats. Importantly, the middle-tier villages characterized by moderate vulnerability emerged as potential pivot points. With targeted support, these settlements could transform into resilience hubs, facilitating skill transfer, technological diffusion, and community mobilization. Such a polycentric development approach could provide a strategic alternative to the long-standing central-periphery model that had failed rural Kurdistan. This study made a compelling case for adopting a multidimensional, multi-hazard approach to regional planning. Moving from crisis-reactive models to proactive risk management required not only technical solutions, but also institutional transformation. The governance paradigm had to shift from siloed hazard responses to integrated vulnerability reduction rooted in local contexts. Practical recommendations include enhancing adaptive infrastructure in the eastern districts, investing in vocational training and gender-inclusive enterprises, enforcing water regulations to mitigate subsidence risks, and promoting stakeholder co-management of natural resources. Furthermore, there is a pressing need to redefine regional development logic—shifting from an urban-centric growth model towards a more spatially balanced and socially just framework that prioritizes resilience and sustainability. Ultimately, this research emphasizes that vulnerability is not inevitable; it can be mapped, understood, and addressed if there is the political will and community agency to do so. In the rural districts of Marivan, the path forward lies in recognizing that risk is not solely a technical challenge, but also a moral one. Only by emphasizing spatial justice and ecological stewardship can the region escape its vulnerability trap and build a more resilient future. چکیده کاهش آسیب‌پذیری، اصل اساسی در رویکرد مدیریت ریسک مخاطرات به‌منظور تاب‌آوری سکونتگاه‌های انسانی است. در این ارتباط، نیاز است که در وهله نخست، ارزیابی جامع و تفکیکی از مؤلفه‌های مؤثر بر آسیب‌پذیری انجام شود و سپس بر مبنای سطوح آسیب‌پذیری، برنامه‌ریزی‌های مرتبط با کاهش آن در سکونتگاه‌ها صورت پذیرد. پژوهش کاربردی حاضر نیز با این هدف در نواحی روستایی شهرستان مریوان استان کردستان با روشی توصیفی‌تحلیلی و با رویکردی استقرایی مبتنی بر سنجش در معرض‌بودن، حساسیت و ظرفیت سازگاری به‌عنوان مؤلفه‌های اصلی آسیب‌پذیری در روستاهای نمونه و تعمیم سطح آسیب‌پذیری به کل شهرستان با ابزارهای آمار فضایی GIS دربرگیرنده درونیابی (IDW)، تراکم کریجینگ و خودهمبستگی فضایی موران در برابر دو مخاطره اصلی زلزله و فرونسشت زمین ناشی از تداوم خشکسالی و برداشت بی‌رویه منابع آبی، صورت پذیرفت. تعیین وضعیت سکونتگاه‌ها در متغیرهای اقتصادی، اجتماعی، طبیعی و کالبدی تعریف‌شده برای هر مؤلفه آسیب‌پذیری (شاخص) با اجماع گروه دلفی مبتنی بر راستی آزمایی و هماهنگی با دهیاران روستاهای نمونه انجام شد. یافته‌های به‌دست‌آمده نشان دادند که سطح و میزان آسیب‌پذیری در سکونتگاه‌های روستایی شرقی شهرستان به نسبت مرکز و غرب آن دارای تفاوت معنی‌داری است که بازتابی از دوری از مرکز شهرستان، جمعیت کمتر، الگوی توسعه‌ای مرکز - پیرامون و نازل‌بودن ظرفیت‌های سازگارانه و به‌ویژه تنوع اقتصادی است. همچنین، ناعدالتی و تفاوت فضایی شکل‌گرفته در میزان آسیب‌پذیری مبتنی بر الگوی خوشه‌ای و در مسیر شکل‌گیری دوقطبی فضایی دربرگیرنده نواحی دارای مطلوبیت (کاهش) و عدم مطلوبیت (افزایش) آسیب‌پذیری در شهرستان است و تنها در مؤلفه در معرض‌بودن است که این دو منطقه دارای وضعیت کیفی متفاوت هستند.

https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_30087_c2ec4d4905e45eb4cd5b2eeee06cae4b.pdf