دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 37 1 2026 03 21 Analysis of Ecotourism Vulnerability to Global Warming (Case Study: Sorkheh-Hesar Protected Area) تحلیل آسیب‌پذیری اکوتوریسم در برابر گرمایش جهانی (مطالعه موردی: منطقه حفاظت‌شده سرخه‌حصار) 137 156 30702 10.22108/gep.2026.148731.1782 FA سعیده فخاری استادیار گروه گردشگری، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران مهری اکبری دانشیار گروه آب و هواشناسی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران نیلوفر احسانی دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد گروه گردشگری دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2026 04 28 Abstract Ecotourism as one of the key branches of sustainable tourism plays a significant role in environmental conservation and livelihoods of local communities. However, climate change and global warming have posed serious challenges to its long-term sustainability. The present study aimed to spatially assess the vulnerability of ecotourism in Sorkheh-Hesar Protected Area located in eastern Tehran under future climate change conditions. The main innovation of this research lay in proposing an integrated framework that combines statistical climate modeling with fuzzy logic-based spatial analysis, enabling the production of operational vulnerability maps for management planning. This study was applied-developmental in nature and followed a quantitative approach. Future climate changes were projected by using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) under the intermediate SSP2-4.5 scenario of the CMIP6 project based on meteorological data from the Doshan-Tappeh station for the historical period of 1995-2024. Subsequently, ecotourism vulnerability was zoned by using fuzzy logic through the integration of spatial layers including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), distance from surface water resources, slope, and land use. Climate modeling results indicated an increase of 1.8°C in mean annual temperature and a decline of 10-15% in annual precipitation over the coming decades. Spatial vulnerability analysis showed that parts of the eastern and southeastern sections of the study area fell within the "high vulnerability" category, mainly due to the sensitivity of vegetation cover and dependence on limited water resources under conditions of decreasing precipitation and rising temperature. These areas characterized by the concentration of agricultural lands and rangelands with fragile vegetation cover were expected to experience the greatest impacts of climate change. Overall, the study highlighted the necessity of prioritizing climate adaptation measures, including water resource management, vegetation restoration, and empowerment of local communities, particularly in the eastern and southeastern parts of the region. The integrated approach developed in this research can serve as a practical model for similar studies in other protected areas of the country. Keywords: Climate Change, Statistical Downscaling (SDSM), Ecotourism, Vulnerability, Sorkheh-Hesar Protected Area. Introduction Ecotourism is widely recognized as one of the most significant branches of sustainable tourism because it promotes responsible travel to natural areas, biodiversity conservation, environmental awareness, and livelihood support for local communities. However, the sustainability of ecotourism is highly dependent on ecosystem integrity, climatic suitability, landscape quality, and resilience of natural resources. In recent decades, climate change and global warming have emerged as major threats to tourism destinations worldwide, particularly nature-based destinations. Rising temperatures, declining precipitation, increasing drought frequency, ecosystem degradation, biodiversity loss, and growing water stress can directly undermine the attractiveness and carrying capacity of ecotourism areas. These impacts are expected to be more severe in arid and semi-arid environments. Iran, due to its predominantly dry climate and increasing environmental stress, is among the countries highly vulnerable to climate change. Within this context, the protected area of Sorkheh-Hesar located in eastern Tehran represents one of the most valuable peri-urban natural landscapes in Iran and requires scientific assessment of its ecotourism vulnerability under future climate conditions. The main objective of this study was to assess the vulnerability of ecotourism in Sorkheh-Hesar Protected Area to future climate change and develop an operational framework for adaptive planning and sustainable destination management. The originality of the study lay in integrating statistical climate downscaling, fuzzy logic modeling, and GIS-based spatial analysis in a unified framework capable of addressing both climatic uncertainty and spatial heterogeneity. The study followed an applied-developmental design with a quantitative approach. In the first stage, future climate conditions were simulated using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The observed climatic data, including daily minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation from the Doshan-Tappeh meteorological station for the baseline period of 1995-2024, were combined with large-scale atmospheric predictors derived from CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs). After calibration and validation of the model, the SSP2-4.5 intermediate emissions scenario was selected for the projection period of 2025-2055. Model evaluation results indicated high performance for temperature simulation and acceptable performance for precipitation, confirming the applicability of SDSM for local climate assessment in the study area. Research Findings Climate projections revealed that the mean annual temperature of the area was expected to increase by approximately 1.8°C by 2055 relative to the baseline period. Summer warming was projected to be more pronounced, leading to stronger heat stress, higher evapotranspiration rates, and reduced thermal comfort for visitors. At the same time, annual precipitation was projected to decline by around 10-15% with more uneven seasonal distribution. Rainfall concentration was expected to increase during colder months, while dry-season precipitation declined further. This dual pattern might intensify both prolonged drought conditions and sudden winter runoff or flash floods. Such climatic changes might significantly affect habitat quality, vegetation cover, water availability, biodiversity stability, and visitor satisfaction. In the second stage, ecotourism vulnerability was assessed by using fuzzy logic modeling. A set of environmental and spatial indicators, including elevation, slope, aspect, geology, soil type, land use, temperature, and precipitation, was selected. Each variable was transformed into fuzzy membership functions according to its characteristics and contribution to vulnerability. The fuzzy layers were then integrated using the fuzzy gamma operator within a GIS environment. The final output was a vulnerability zoning map with 3 categories: low, medium, and high vulnerability. This approach enabled the modeling of nonlinear interactions, uncertainty, and complex relationships among environmental variables. The spatial results showed that nearly 28% of the protected area fell into the category of high to very high vulnerability. These zones were mainly concentrated in the southern, southeastern, and some eastern parts of Sorkheh-Hesar, where lower elevation, higher temperature, gentle slopes, weaker vegetation cover, higher anthropogenic pressure, and dependence on limited water resources were evident. Agricultural lands, barren surfaces, and urban fringe areas were more common in these sectors, making them more sensitive to drought, soil erosion, vegetation decline, and reduced tourism attractiveness. In contrast, approximately 27% of the area mainly located in the northern and northeastern uplands exhibited low vulnerability. These sectors benefited from higher elevation, lower temperature, denser vegetation cover, and relatively stable ecological conditions, resulting in greater natural resilience. The remaining areas were classified as medium vulnerability. Discussion of Results & Conclusion The findings demonstrated that global warming was not merely a climatic issue, but a multidimensional threat to ecotourism through cascading impacts, such as water scarcity, ecosystem stress, increased wildfire risk, accelerated soil erosion, and deterioration of visitor experience. Moreover, the proximity of Sorkheh-Hesar to the metropolitan area of Tehran intensified vulnerability through urban heat island effects, pollution, infrastructure pressure, and high visitor flows. Therefore, future management of the protected area requires a place-based and adaptation-oriented strategy. Based on the results, the main management recommendations included vegetation restoration in critical zones, integrated water resource management, control of incompatible land uses and anthropogenic pressure, development of low-impact tourism routes, establishment of long-term climatic and ecological monitoring systems, visitor and community awareness programs, and incorporation of vulnerability maps into regional planning. Overall, the integrated framework developed in this study can serve as a practical model for other protected areas in Iran and arid regions of the Middle East. It contributes to the advancement of climate-resilient ecotourism planning and supports evidence-based management under increasing environmental uncertainty. چکیده اکوتوریسم به‌عنوان یکی از شاخه‌های کلیدی گردشگری پایدار، نقش مهمی در حفاظت از محیط‌زیست و معیشت جوامع محلی ایفا می‌کند؛ بااین‌حال، تغییرات اقلیمی و گرمایش جهانی پایداری آن را با چالش جدی مواجه ساخته‌اند. هدف: پژوهش حاضر با هدف ارزیابی فضایی آسیب‌پذیری اکوتوریسم در منطقه حفاظت‌شده سرخه‌حصار (واقع در شرق تهران) در مواجهه با تغییرات اقلیمی آینده انجام شده است. نوآوری اصلی این تحقیق در ارائه چارچوبی ترکیبی از مدل‌سازی اقلیمی آماری و تحلیل فضایی مبتنی بر منطق فازی است که امکان تولید نقشه‌های آسیب‌پذیری عملیاتی را برای برنامه‌ریزی مدیریتی فراهم می‌سازد. روش: پژوهش از نوع کاربردی-توسعه‌ای با رویکرد کمی بوده است. برای پیش‌بینی تغییرات اقلیمی، از مدل ریزمقیاس‌نمایی SDSM تحت سناریوی میانی SSP2-4.5 پروژه CMIP6 و داده‌های ایستگاه هواشناسی دوشان‌تپه در بازه تاریخی ۱۹۹۵–۲۰۲۴ استفاده شد. سپس آسیب‌پذیری اکوتوریسم با به‌کارگیری منطق فازی و تلفیق لایه‌های اطلاعاتی شامل شاخص پوشش گیاهی (NDVI)، فاصله از منابع آب سطحی، شیب و کاربری اراضی، پهنه‌بندی شد. یافته‌ها و تحلیل: یافته‌های مدل‌سازی اقلیمی حاکی از افزایش میانگین دمای سالانه به میزان ۱/۸ درجه سلسیوس و کاهش بارش سالانه بین ۱۰ تا ۱۵ درصد در دهه‌های آینده است. نتایج تحلیل فضایی آسیب‌پذیری نشان می‌دهد که بخش‌هایی از محدوده شرقی و جنوب‌شرقی منطقه در طبقه «آسیب‌پذیری زیاد» قرار می‌گیرند که عمدتاً به دلیل حساسیت پوشش گیاهی و وابستگی به منابع آبی محدود در برابر کاهش بارش و افزایش دماست. این نواحی به دلیل تمرکز کاربری‌های کشاورزی و مراتع با پوشش گیاهی شکننده، بیشترین تأثیرپذیری را از تغییرات اقلیمی خواهند داشت. نتیجه‌گیری: در مجموع، پژوهش حاضر بر ضرورت تمرکز اقدامات سازگاری با اقلیم از جمله مدیریت منابع آب، احیای پوشش گیاهی و توانمندسازی جوامع محلی در نواحی شرقی و جنوب‌شرقی منطقه تأکید دارد. رویکرد ترکیبی ارائه‌شده در این تحقیق می‌تواند به‌عنوان الگویی برای مطالعات مشابه در سایر مناطق حفاظت‌شده کشور استفاده شود.

https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_30702_0831a4ec1ab6b14da2d3dbd2b32af543.pdf