دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 22 1 2011 05 22 Synoptic analysis of sever, late and widespread frost in April 2009 تحلیل سینوپتیک یخبندان شدید، دیرهنگام و فراگیر فروردین ماه 1388 1 14 18481 FA قاسم عزیزی دانشیار اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران علی حنفی کارشناسی ارشد اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران محسن سلطانی کارشناسی ارشد اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران موسی آقاجانی کارشناس جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2016 06 14   Synoptic analysis of sever, late and widespread frost in April 2009         Gh. Azizi ( * ) ,  Associate Professor of Climatology, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.   e-mail: ghazizi@ut.ac.ir     A. Hanafi, M. A. of Climatology, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.     M. Soltani, M. A. of Climatology, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.     M. Aghajani, Graduated in Physical Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.   Received: 10 May 2010 / Accepted: 14 Desember 2011, 1-4 P       Extended abstract   1- Intro duction   Frost identified as one of the most catastrophic natural disaster accompanied by usually plentiful losses and damages. Freezing and frost play a significant role on plants phenology for agriculture crops, as if occur, resulting in production limit (Alijani and Hajbarpour 2007). Freezing refers to conditions that the air temperature at a height of about two meters from ground reaches to zero or below zero degrees Celsius (Azizi, 2004). From the viewpoint of agricultural meteorology, frost occurred in extreme low temperatures that resulting to plant tissue damage. This type of freezing is different for each product according to the critical temperatures (Mohammadi, 2004).     Generally we can say that freezing caused to restriction in growth, activity or decrease in function.     2- Methodology   In order to synoptic analyses the frost of 12th to 15th April 2009 periods and its effects on vast country of Iran, the relevant meteorological data including mean surface pressure hPa and temperature (degC) mean geopotential height hPa streamlines fields – u & v wind components (m/s-1) and 850 hPa and 500 hPa were selected from NCAR/NCEP data and produced by GrADS and then were analyzed. In this study, 500 hPa and temperature have been used as a representative of middle atmosphere, especially moisture and wind in 850 hPa were used for analysis moisture of system and SLP used for studying the position of low pressure and high pressure systems. For this purpose, synoptic maps for SLP, 850 and 500 hPa producted by GrADS software and analyzed.     3- Discussion   The mean sea level pressure indicates a ridge of large scale anticyclone centered over Black Sea extends southwards and prevails over northern Iran on 12 April 2009 resulted in cold advection from high latitudes over northern half of Iran. Simultaneously, a low center (1014 hPa) located above latitude 50o N over Siberia area influenced the study area to some extent. In the northern half of Iran the circulation is characterized by a remarkable intensification of the pressure gradient, due to the presence of a deep trough positioned over Caspian Sea with its axis oriented along the northwest-southeast direction field . As a result of being meridian the circulation patterns over the northwest parts of the country resulted in the cold air influx from Polar Regions into Iran. At the level of 500 hPa, a low center established on latitude 55o N and longitude 70o E over the Russia resulted in a deep trough across the southwest – northeast and Iran located in front of the trough. The wind direction is eastwards and the temperature varies from -12 oC to -27oC in Iran. In majority of the country the relative humidity values are between 30% - 50% apart from a small section over the northwest, in which is more than 80% caused snowfall in some stations. A cut-off low generated in the cold system center as a result of being existing the meridian circulation, which it has a huge difference temperature as compared to the adjacent air. The average temperature decreased to less than -5 oC in the low center. The low system cells displaced towards southeast and it was provided a very suitable pressure gradient over the northern border of Iran (on 13 April). The cold system, on the next day, left the study area towards east and its great influence weakened and as a result, the temperature began to increase (on April 14). Besides, at the isobaric level of 850 hPa, most parts of the country surrounded by northerly flows in consequence of the anticyclone activity over the latitude 50o N and longitude 24o E caused cold air advection from high latitudes into Iran, as most stations under study experienced under zero temperature (–0oC). Moreover, at the level of 500 hPa a huge trough as a result of a large scale cyclone centered over Russia extended southwards and entirely predominated whole Iran on April 14, resulted in cold air advection from high latitudes over more than 70% of Iran in particular north and northwest regions of the country highly were affected by the cold system as compared to other sections. On the contrary, northeast divisions of Iran recorded a more chilly temperature because of the cold system eastward displacement on the next day in the meantime the western half of Iran was experienced a rise in temperature gradually (on 15 April).     4- Conclusion   As mentioned above, during 12th – 15th April 2009 episode a chilly system had been affected by approximately whole Iran resulted in a sensible and considerable drop in temperature and some snowfall over most regions of the country, which identified as an exceptional late frost phenomenon within a couple of recent years. Synoptic pattern of meteorological charts of 12 April 2009 indicated that a high system accompanied by two isobaric centers nearly 1029 hPa and 1014 hPa over Black Sea and Russia (Siberia zone) were located, which its vortex was extended by approximately southern half of Iran. In this research have been distinguished the western high – over Black Sea – played a significant role on advective, or air mass frosts over Iran resulting from displacing eastwards and cold advections from high latitudes. On next day, the mentioned anticyclone had not a considerable displaced. A cut-off low was formed in center of the high system in consequence of a great pressure gradient because of being meridian the contours, resulted in a dramatically fall in temperature as compared to its own adjacent surroundings. Consequently, the mean temperature value was dropped in less than -5oC in the low center. On 14th April, the high cell was created a very suitable pressure gradient in north half of the country as it was displacing southeastwards, which resulted in to intensify the instabilities over north half of Iran, as a result on this day, most stations were recorded minus temperatures zero 0oC nationwide except for the southern border of country. Eventually, the temperature slightly increased in most stations over western half of the country, meanwhile the temperature values kept going to drop in to some extent in eastern stations, followed by eastwards displacement of the high system. As well as, in order to indicate the cold system track over the country and the occurred frosts during the examined period, the min temperature values interpolated by using GIS. The results indicated well the cold system’s entrance, activity and going out of the country.   Key words : Synoptic, sever Frost, Regionalization, April, Iran.     References   Alijani., B. & Hajbarpour, GH. (2007). Synoptic analysis of frosts in Ardabil province, geography and development magazine, Zahedan University, Iran.   Azizi, GH. (2004). Synoptic assessment of vernal extensive frosts in western half of Iran, quarterly journal of teacher training University, Tehran, Iran , No. 81. pp 99-115.   Azizi, Gh., & habibi nokhandan, M. 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Analysis and forecasting frost in Azerbaijan. PhD thesis, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran, Iran.   NOAA, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), 2010. Available at: www.cdc.noaa.gov/cdc/data.ncep.reanalysis.pressure.html   Nohi, K. et al. (2007). Investigation and analysis of begin and end dates of radiation-advective frosts in northwest Iran, national journal of researches on cultivation and agriculture, ministry of agriculture, Tehran, Iran. . No. 75, Summer 2007.   Rahimi, M. (1999). An investigation of occurrence probability of vernal late frosts and autumn early in central Alburz, M.S. thesis, faculty of geography, university of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.   Rosenberg, N. J. And Myers, R. E. (1962). The nature of growing Season Frost in Nebraska. Monthly Weather Reviwe, 90.   Serafin, S., Betro. M., & De Franceschi. R. (2003). 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Monthly Weather Reviwe, 86.         در این پژوهش به منظور بررسی الگوی سینوپتیکی یخبندان شدید و دیر هنگام دوره 23 تا 26 فروردین ماه 1388، نقشه‌های هواشناسی میانگین فشار سطح دریا، 850 و 500 هکتوپاسکال بررسی شده است، و با استفاده از نقشه‌های همدیدی، موقعیت و جابجایی سیستم‌های جوی همچون: سیکلون‌ها، آنتی سیکلون‌ها و میدان‌های باد مطالعه شده است. نتایج نشان دهنده آن است که فعالیت سامانه پرفشاری در شمال دریای خزر سبب ریزش هوای سرد عرض‌های بالا به کشور شده به طوری که باعث وقوع یخبندان در بیشتر ایستگاه‌های کشور شده است. و میدان باد ترازهای پایین، نقش مهمی در تغذیه رطوبتی سامانه‌های جوی داشته است که طی دوره فعالیت این سامانه الگوی مناسب میدان باد ترازهای پایین، سبب تغذیه رطوبتی قابل ملاحظه‌ای به کشور شده، به طوری که در برخی ایستگاه‌ها ریزش برف مشاهده شد. همچنین نتایج حاصل از پهنه بندی مقادیر حداقل دمای 24 ساعته، نشان داد که طی این دوره، بخش‌های غربی و جنوب غربی کشور نسبت به دیگر نواحی یخبندان‌های شدیدتری را تجربه کرده‌اند.    https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_18481_9a945a61627d565fe68ddbf25009720c.pdf

دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 22 1 2011 05 22 Investigation of topographic thresholds and analysing role of surface materials on gully development in the hillslope of semi arid areas.Case study: Shoorchay بررسی آستانه‌های توپوگرافیکی وتحلیل نقش نوع سازندهای سطحی در توسعه خندق‌ها در دامنه‌های کوهستان‌های نواحی نیمه خشک مطالعه موردی: حوضه شورچای 15 34 18482 FA مریم بیاتی‌خطیبی دانشیار ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران معصومه رجبی دانشیار ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران فریبا کرمی استادیار ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران Journal Article 2016 06 14   Investigation of topographic thresholds and analysing role of surface materials on gully development in the hillslope of semi arid areas.Case study: Shoorchay     M. Bayati Khatibi. ( * ),   Associate Professor of Geomorphology, university of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.   e mail: m_bayati@tabrizu.ac.ir     M. Rajabi.   Associate Professor of Geomorphology, university of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.     F. Karami.  Assistant Professor of Geomorphology, university of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.   Received: 21 Desember 2009 / Accepted: 17 August 2010, 5-8 P     Extended abstract   1- Introduction   In the surface of semiarid regions, erotion accures severe and rapidly. Liner erosion, specially gully erosion –as a hazardous erosion type ,is important factor for delivery materials into runoff and flood plains. This erosion type is formed in semi arid mountains that is not covered by plants. In intensive erosion, many factors are interference, but magnetude of erosion on suitable materials or erosible materials is very high. In shoorchay catchement on Eastern slope of Sahand (located from 36˚ 05́ to37˚ 20́ N and from 46˚ 42́ to 47˚ 15́ E)     Big gully is developed on the hillslope of silt and clay. In this article have been effects of factors on studied gully formation and development many indices, such as V and TCI. The results of this study show that in many parts of Shorchay Basin, slope and surface materials have important role on development of gullies.     2- Metodology   In this article, was investigated linear erosion factors by V and TCI indices. River gradient, flow velocity, time concentration and power erosion of rivers, have been studied and computed as creation and development factors. TC (time concentration) was related to physiographic characteristics, eg., surface property, shape of basin, lengh and slope of reaches, relief, type of plant covers, soil texture. Therefore these factors were presented erosion potential of basin. TC was estemited using Willimas methods. Rn, C, T, FN indices have been used in this study, as morphometery indices.   3- Discussion   In the shoorchy as a sub basin of Garangoo Basin, rate of sediment is very high. Unstable materials, unstable slope on course of river,unprotect slope and salt dom which don’t have suitable plant covers, are main causes of intensive erosion in Shoorchay basin. In the gentle parts of basin, erosion is higher than slope. Mentioned site of basin, in spite of presence sustainble materials on surfaces, rate of erosion is low. These land are farmlands.     4- Conclusion   The rate of TCI is high in Northern and Western part of Shoorchay Catchement. these results also were sugessted that these sites have very high potential for gulling processes. In most site of Shoorchay catchement, when lengh of slope is increasing, the rate of TCI also is increasing. This result show affect of gathering water on erosion. The rate of V at up parts of catchement was high and was decreasing in the midle and down parts of catchement. Most of gullies were made and developed on the sites with marn and silt. Results showed that V and TCI were not conformed in many parts of catchement. The analysis of used indices in many parts of study area showed that numurical data were higher than limit of thresholds .These results show that potential of slope for liner erosion is high   Key words : liner erosion, gully erosion, topographical factors, surface materials eastern slope of Sahand muntain.       References   Amsler, L. M., C, G. Ramonell & H, A. Toniolo. (2005). Morphologic changes in the Parana river channel in the li ght of the climate variability during the 20the century, Geomorphology, 65, p 56-70.   Battagli, S. a., L. Leoni & F. Sartori. (2002). Mineralogical and grain size composition of clays developing calanchi and biancane erosional landforms,Geomorphology, 49, 153–170 .   Boardman, J., A. J. Parsons & R. Holland., P. J. Holmes, Washington. (2003). Development of badlands and gullies in the Sneeuberg, Great Karoo, South Africa, Catena, 50, 165– 184.   Casalı, J., J. Loizu, M.. Campo, L.. De Santisteban & J. A´ lvarez-Mozos. (2006). 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Effect of vegetation cover on soil erosion in a mountainous watershed.Catena.75, p 319-325.         <span style="font-family: 'B Lotus'; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;" lang="FA" dir="RTL">در سطوح دامنه‌های مناطق<br />نیمه خشک انواع فرسایش و با شدت‌های متفاوت فعال است. فرسایش خطی بویژه فرسایش<br />خندقی در بین انواع فرسایش مهمترین عامل تخلیه و ورود مواد دامنه ای به دشت‌های<br />سیلابی وآب‌های جاری محسوب می‌شود. این نوع فرسایش در محدوده‌های کوهستانی نواحی<br />نیمه خشک که دامنه‌هابه خوبی توسط پوشش گیاهی محافظت نمی‌شوند، بیشتر دیده می‌شود.<br />در تشدید فرسایش عوامل مختلفی دخیل هستند، اما سرعت تشکیل عوامل مختلفی دخیل از<br />پدیده‌های مربوط به فرسایش، به ویژه خندق‌ها در سطوح شیبدار متشکل از سازندهای<br />سطحی مستعد به فرسایش خطی قابل ملاحظه است. در حوضه شورچای واقع در دامنه‌های شرقی<br />کوهستان سهند (واقع در موقعیت جغرافیایی از</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">́</span><span style="font-family: 'B Lotus'; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;" lang="FA" dir="RTL"> 05</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;" lang="FA" dir="RTL">˚</span><span style="font-family: 'B Lotus'; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;" lang="FA" dir="RTL"> 36 تا</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">́</span><span style="font-family: 'B Lotus'; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;" lang="FA" dir="RTL"> 20 </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;" lang="FA" dir="RTL">˚</span><span style="font-family: 'B Lotus'; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;" lang="FA" dir="RTL">37 عرض<br />شمالی واز</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">́</span><span style="font-family: 'B Lotus'; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;" lang="FA" dir="RTL"> 43 </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;" lang="FA" dir="RTL">˚</span><span style="font-family: 'B Lotus'; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;" lang="FA" dir="RTL"> 46 تا</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">́</span><span style="font-family: 'B Lotus'; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;" lang="FA" dir="RTL"> 15</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">́</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;" lang="FA" dir="RTL">˚</span><span style="font-family: 'B Lotus'; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;" lang="FA" dir="RTL"> 47<br />طول شرقی )بر روی دامنه‌های متشکل از سازندهای سطحی متشکل از مارن، سیلت و رس حضور<br />خندق‌های عمیق ودر حال توسعه در بخش‌های مختلف حوضه، بویژه در شیب‌های منتهی به<br />رودخانه اصلی بیشتر دیده می‌شود. در این مقاله با استفاده از شاخص‌ها وضرایب مختلف<br />مانند شاخص‌های </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">V</span><span style="font-family: 'B Lotus'; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;" lang="FA" dir="RTL"> و </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Lotus'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">TCI</span><span style="font-family: 'B Lotus'; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;" lang="FA" dir="RTL"> عوامل تشکیل<br />وتوسعه این پدیده بررسی و تحلیل شده. نتایج حاصل از این بررسی‌ها نشان می دهد که<br />در بخش‌های مختلف حوضه شورچای، شیب و نوع سازندهای سطحی دامنه‌ها نقش اولیه را در<br />فراهم نمودن زمینه لازم برای تشکیل خندق‌ها ایفا نموده است. تحلیل مقادیر حاصل از<br />به کارگیری شاخص‌ها در بخش‌هایی از محدوده مورد مطالعه نشان می دهد که در مواردی<br />مقادیر حاصل از حد آستانه‌ها تجاوز نموده است، که این امر از پتانسیل بالای دامنه‌های<br />محدوده مذکور برای فرسایش خطی، حکایت می‌کند</span> https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_18482_6b06eb261277dc18853a19e18be595b9.pdf

دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 22 1 2011 05 22 Zoning of climate changes rate base on agriculture approach in future climatic period (case study Khorasan Razavi province) پهنه‌بندی میزان تغییرات اقلیمی از دیدگاه کشاورزی در دوره اقلیمی آینده مطالعه موردی: استان خراسان رضوی 35 52 18483 FA رضا اسماعیلی دانشجوی دکتری اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد نجف آباد، نجف آباد,ایران امیر گندمکار استادیار اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد نجف آباد، نجف آباد، ایران حسنعلی غیور استاد هیدرولوژی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران Journal Article 2016 06 14   Zoning of climate changes rate base on agriculture approach in future climatic period (case study Khorasan Razavi province)     R. Esmaile. ( * ),  PhD student of climatology, Islamic Azad University of Najaf Abad, Najaf Abad, Iran.   email: esmaili_1384@yahoo.com     A. Gandomkar. Assistant professor of climatology, Islamic Azad University of Najaf Abad, Najaf Abad, Iran .     H. A. Ghayoor. Professor of Hydrology , University of Isfahan , Isfahan , Iran .   Received: 21 Desember 2009 / Accepted: 17 August 2010, 9-12 P       Extended Abstract   1- Introduction   The trend analysis of the historical data and the output of Global Climate Models (GCMs) show that climate change is inevitable.   According to the current trend, world population would be increased twice during in the one hundred futures. Climate change has most important in agriculture aspect because the agricultural section provides food for people and climate change influence the safety food. One of the climate changes is boundary replacement of forest and agricultural areas toward north.     According to the report of Intergovernmental panel of climate change (IPCC), the most important results of climate change will be as follow:   - Intensifying climatic cricis   -Warming of high latitudes,   - Decreasing of available water resource and   - Development of monsoon rainfall toward the poles.   Thus, the clear characteristic of climate change should be explored in studying critical phenomena spatially in agriculture which is more important. In this research, the changes of eight indices effective on agriculture have been investigated for future climatic period (2010- 2039). In the next step, spatial analysis has been done for anomaly of each index as separately and together .     2- Methodology   In this research, the changes of variables such as temperature, rainfall, growth season length, freezing season length, coefficient of variations (CV)for rainfall, number of rainy days and heavy rain frequency (over 10 mm) were investigated in the last period (1964-2005) and future period (2010-2039). In this research, have been used 8 synoptic stations. Three stations including Mashhad, Torbat-e Heydariyeh and Sabzevar are located into Khorasan Razavi province.   The future climate conditions have been predicted using the output of GCM ECHO-G model and A1 scenario. In the next step, the data has been downscaling using LARS WG model on the daily scale. Then, the changes of each variable which mentioned above have been calculated in the last and future period.   Ultimately, the anomaly map for each index was drawn by GIS software.     3- Discussion   According to the obtained results of this research, the temperature would be increased for 0.5 degree centigrade in the future period (2010-2039). The amounts of temperature increased for Mashhad, Sabzevar and Torbat-e Heydariyeh would be 0.38, 0.46 and 0.36 degree centigrade respectively.   Amount of changes for rainfall is not unique. For example, the amount of rainfall in two stations including Mashhad and Torbat-e Heydariyeh have been increased 20.7 and 12.5 millimeter respectively while Sabzevar station has been experienced the decreasing trend of 8 millimeters. Also, the change of growth season length was very considerable. The growth season length would be increased 17 days in total of Khorasan Razavi province. But freezing season length and the number of freezing days would be decreased 14.7 and 14 days respectively.   While the average rainfall would be increased in the future period, the results of this research showed that the number of rainy days would be decreased. The increase of heavy rainy days frequency and unsuitable distribution of rainfall might have the negative effects in the agricultural section.     4- Conclusion   The Results of this research showed that variables such as temperature and precipitation would be increased during future 30 years (2010-2039). This increasing for temperature and precipitation were calculated 0.5 degree centigrade and 7 millimeter respectively. Also the amount of growth season length, the number of heavy rainy days and rainfall variations coefficient would be increased. The mount of indices such as freezing period, freeze season length and number of rainy days would be decreased. Based on spatial analysis on all of the GIS layers of the anomaly maps showed that the rate of climate changes would be nearly between 46-65 percent. The most changes would be occurred in Mashhad plain and the northern region of Khorasan Razavi province and central regions such as Torbat-e Heydariyeh would have the less change.   Key words: Climate Changes, Statistical downscaling, LARS WG Model, Climatic critical indices, Climate models.     References   Arnon, I. (1999). principal of agriculturein dry regions, evaz kochaki and afshen soltani, amozeshekheshavarz publisher,first edition   Esmaili, reza. (2007). An Analysis of Spring frost And its Impact in Agriculture: An Synoptic-statistical Perspective Case study: Mahvelat Region, The dissertation of m. sc. In physical geography and (climate in environmental planning), the university of sistan and baluchestan Gradute school   Esmaili, reza., majed habibinokhandan & gholam abas fallah ghalhari. (2011). the changes assessment of growth season length and freezing due to climate fluctuation, case study khorasanrazavi province , Journal of physical geographical research, issue 73, PP.69.   Babaiyan, iman & raheleh modireyan and maryam karimi. (2008). The assessment of climate change in Iran between 2070-2100 using the précis climate model. Third conference of water management in Iran, Tabriz   Nameless. (2005). Investigation of global climate model results and determination of suitable model for Iran, Planning and Research Institute of Agricultural Economics. Management of research & findings.   Behzad, barzgar & afshen, soltani. (2007). the effect of climate change on face pea operation in the North West Iran, the second of Iran ecology national congress.   Pedram, Mojdeh. (2008). Investigation of the changes of Non-Frost Length and Numbers of Frost Days in West and East Azerbaijan Provinces. Isfahan University Science Journal. issue3   Jafar, baiglo & Zahra bobaraki. (2009). The Estimation of saffron-growing areas in Ghazvin province by analytic hierarchy presses, physical geography research quarterly, issue, 66, pp 101-109   Jafari moghadam, majed, Afshen soltani and Ebarahim zainali. (2007). the prediction of the global climate change on future climate in khorasan razavi province. The second nation congress of the agricultural and Iranian ecology   Shaemibarzaki, akbar & majid habibi nokhandan. (2009). Global Warming Biological and Ecological Impacts, tarjemankherad publisher, mashhad, first Edition   SedaghatKerdar, Abdullah Rahimzade, Fatimah. (2008). the changes of Growth Season Length in Second Half of 20 Century in Iran. Investigate in Constructiveness Quarterly.isuee 75.   Fallah ghalhari, gholamabbas & mohhamad mosavi baigi and maid habibi nokhandan. (2009). the comparative of obtain results Mamedani FIS and artificial neural network for season rainfall, Iranian water resource journal, issue 14   F.i, wood ward. (1998). the ecological consequences of global climate change, translated by Kochaki, evaz and hamid reza sharifi and eskandar zand, jahaddaneshgahi, publisher   Malchowiski, yachk. (2006). geography information system and analytic hierarchy presses , translate by ali akbar parhezkar and ata ghafari gelandeh, samt publisher, first edition   mohamadi, hossen & mahdikazimi and nafesehgodarzi. (2007). The Estimation of saffron-cultivation inisfahan province by GIS, Investigate in Constructiveness Quarterly.isuee issue, 76   Masoodian, abolfazl, & mohama drezakaviani (2007). Climatology of Iran, isfahan university publisher.   Mahdi m ontaziri & hedayat fahmi. (2003). the impact of climate change on water resurce in iran, third regionally conference of the climate change   Momeni, mahdi. (2003). the impact of climate change on instability ecology in iran, third regionally conference of the climate change   Mir Mohammad Meybodi, Mohammad Ali TorkeshEsfahani, Saied. (2004). The Management of Cold Stresses and Frost of Agricultural and Rebellious Plants. JahadeDaneshgahi Publishers. Isfahan Industrial Branch   Hemati, rasoul and esrafil golmohamadi and azim nasiri & Ali dolat mehri. (2006). Study of climate change role in Increased or reduced atmospheric and climatic disasters in Ardebil province .      در این تحقیق سعی شده است تغییرات دما و بارش و همچنین بعضی از شاخص‌های حدّی موثر بر بخش کشاورزی در دوره اقلیمی 1418-1389 در سطح استان خراسان رضوی ارزیابی گردد. با استفاده از داده‌های آب وهوایی که توسط مدل GCM ECHO-G سناریوی A1 برای دوره آینده برآورد شده است، میزان تغییرات 8 شاخص موثر، نسبت به میانگین دوره گذشته محاسبه شده است. نتایج حاکی از افزایش متوسط درجه حرارت (5/0 درجه سلسیوسی)، طول دوره رشد(17روز)، میانگین بارندگی(7 میلیمتر)، تعداد بارش‌های سنگین(یک روز) و ضریب تغیرات بارندگی (5/1 درصد) و همچنین کاهش در طول دوره یخبندان(7/14روز)، تعداد روزهای یخبندان(15روز) و تعداد روزهای همراه با بارندگی (9روز) را در دوره اقلیمی آینده نشان می دهد. نتیجه تحلیل فضایی که از ترکیب هشت لایه میزان تغییرات شاخص‌ها در محیط GIS صورت گرفته، نشان می دهد، میزان تغییرات اقلیمی در سطح منطقه مورد مطالعه بین 46 تا 65 درصد خواهد بود. (از حداقل 0 تا حداکثر100درصد). نواحی عمده استان میزان تغییراتی بین 50 تا 60 درصد را تجربه خواهند کرد. بیشترین و شدیدترین تغییرات در مناطق شمالی استان خراسان رضوی و دشت مشهد رخ خواهد داد. https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_18483_bd05591e02c08836ab180bd66cb87a0a.pdf

دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 22 1 2011 05 22 Investigation of Displacement of Minimum Temperatures Temporal and Spatial Cores in West and Northern West of Iran مطالعه جابه جایی هسته‌های زمانی و مکانی دماهای حداقل در غرب و شمال غرب ایران 53 68 18484 FA بهلول علیجانی استاد اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه تربیت معلم، تهران، ایران پیمان محمودی دانشجوی دکتری اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران علی پناهی کارشناس ارشد هوا شناسی، مرکز تحقیقات هواشناسی کاربردی، سنندج، ایران Journal Article 2016 06 14     Investigation of Displacement of Minimum Temperatures Temporal and Spatial Cores in West and Northern West of Iran    B. Alijani.   Professor of climatology, Tarbiat Moallm University, Tehran, Iran.     P. Mahmoudi. ( * ), PhD student of climatology, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.   email: paymanasia@yahoo.com     A. Panahi .  M.A. of climatology, Applied Meteorology Research Centre, Sanandaj, Iran.   Received: 26 October 2009 / Accepted: 17 August 2010, 13-16 P     Extended Abstract   1- Introduction   One of the prominent challenges in current century is climate changes. Among weather parameters, temperature changes as the most basic element of the weather in every district have special importance.   The west and the north-west of Iran, where is a mountainous region and full of snow, consider as water sources for great rivers and also underground water supply.   Therefore, every climatic change in these parts particularly in a cold season,     not only causes changes in a hydrology cycle also in a rainfall regime, soil moisture regime, cultivation pattern, increase or decrease of climatic crisis.   So, recognition and enquiry of changes and fluctuations in different climatic parameters according to different intervals can provide a very noticeable outlook for future programs.   As a result, 2 goals which this research has been pursuing are   · To appoint temporal and spatial cores of severe colds in the west and the north-west of Iran.   · Understand a process of replacement of temporal and spatial cores of severe colds in the west and the north-west of Iran.       2- Methodology   For investigation a replacement of temporal and spatial cores of minimum temperatures in the west and the north-west of Iran and for achieving the aims of this study, data related to absolute minimum temperatures in November to May for 30 years (1976-2005) were collected from 11 select stations from Meteorological organization of Iran.   Cold indicator waves were extracted in related to factors such as, set at least four stations in one group that have the lower minimum temperature and also 2 days intervals exist between elected heads and a group in former stations. The number of collected heads was 283.After appointing cold waves wavelength was defined for all of them based on the number of days and timely core. The coldest station that had the lowest temperature in every group was specified according to the maximum stations in one day in every single head and timely core.   For recognizing the spatial displacement of cold cores, have been divided the study into three interval subgroups during 10 years and changes of spatial cores of annual cold were computed in every interval subgroups and by using” SURFER” and kriging method changed them to maps and then movements of spatial cores were interpreted using maps. Also computed timely movements of coldness cores by using regression method.       3- Discussion   Investigation of displacement of spatial cores of annual indicator heads indicated that the principal place for cold cores is” Nozhe Hamedan” station which showed 6 times frequency in the first decade.   In second decade this place changed from Nozhe Hamedan to Ardebil with 6 times frequency and in third decade from Ardebil to Saghez with 5 times frequency.   So, we can see that one movement in coldness cores happened from approximately 35 degree latitudes to higher than 36 degree ones.   For analyzing the timely displacement of cold cores, consider “years” as independent variable and “a day of happening” as a dependent variable.   Consequences from this analysis show that one displacement in temporal cores cause severe cold in the west and the north-west of Iran. In a way that temporal cores of annual indicator show displacement from early February and late January to late December. It should be mention that this displacement in a 5 percent possible level is not definite.     4- Conclusion   The result of this study showed that one displacement in spatial cores of cold indicator heads in a duration of study (1976-2005) is observable in away that this displacement is from 35 degree geographical latitudes to higher than 36 ones.   Also consequences of analysing the process of temporal cores of indicator heads indicate one movement in temporal cores that cause a severe colds in the west and the north-west of Iran in a manner that temporal cores of annual indicator show displacement from early February and late January to early January and even late December.   It should be mention that these displacements in 5 percent possible level are not definite.   Another point that also originates from the research is when displacement of spatial and temporal cores of cold indicator heads in the west and the north-west of Iran happen, the temperature of indicator heads becomes decreases, which means become colder.   Key words : temporal core of cold- spatioal core of cold, West and Northwest Iran, climate change, Cold wave       References   Alijani, A., M. R. Kaviani (2006). Principles of Climatology. SAMT Organization, Tehran, Iran.   Alizadeh, A., GH. Kamali (2002). Effect of climate change of agricultural water use in Mashhad valley. Geographical Research, (2-3) (65-66)): 189-201.   Azizi, Gh (2004). Climate Change. Ghoomes Publishing Company Ltd, Tehran, Iran, 264p.   Azizi, Gh., M. Roushani (2008). Using Mann-Kendall test to recognize of climate change in Caspian Sea southern coasts. Geographical Research Quarterly, 40(64): 13-28.   Barati, Gh., S. Sh. Mosavi (2005). The displacement position of heat waves during winter in Iran. Geography and Development, 3(5): 41-52.   Barati, Gh., I. Haidari (2003). Classification of humidity resources of Iran western precipitation (184-1985). Proceeding of the 3rd regional conference on climate change, Isfahan, Iran.   Bidokhti, A., A. A. Ranjbar, A. Sa'adat Abadi (2003). Study of climatic effect of heat Island of Tehran. Proceeding of the 3rd regional conference on climate change, Isfahan, Iran.   Domroes, Manfred. And Attia El-Tantawi (2005). Recent Temporal and Spatial Temperature Changes in Egypt. International journal of climatology, Vol 25, Issue 1, Pages 51-63.   Ebrahimi, H., A. Alizadeh, S. Javanmard (2006). The study of temperature variation in the plain of Mashhad as the index of climate change in the region. Geographical Research, 20(4(79)): 5-18.   Jahanbakhsh, S., S. Torabi (2004). Review and prediction of temperature and precipitation in Iran. Geographical Research, 19(3(74)): 104-125.   Javari, M. (2001). Climate changes of temperature and precipitation in Iran. PhD Thesis. Tehran University.   Leite. S. M., and J. P. Peixoto., (1996). The Autoregressive Model of Climatological Time Series: an Application to the Longest Time Series in Portugal. International journal of climatology, Vol 16, Issue 10, Pages 1165-1173.   Masoudian, S. A. (2004). Temperature trends in Iran the last half century. Geography and Development, 2(3): 89-106.   Mohammadi, H., F. Taghavi (2005). Trends in indices of temperature and precipitation extreme in Tehran. Geographical Research Quarterly, 37(53): 151-172.   Nader sefat, M. H. (1996). Quaternary Geography. Payam Noor University Press.   Ragasakthi. S., Sundarvel. U., (2003). Anthropogenic Induced Climate Change in India. Proceeding of the International Symposium of Climate Change (ISCC). Beijing: China.   Rasouli, A. A. (2002). Preliminary time series analysis of Tabriz air temperatures. Nivar, No 46 and 47, 7-26.   Turkes, M., U. M. Sumer, and G. Kilic (1996) Observed changes in Maximum and Minimum temperatures in Turkey. International journal of climatology, Vol 16, Issue 4, Pages 463-477.   Winkler, J. A., and J. P. Palutikof. J. A. Andresen., and C. M. Goodess., (1997) the Simulation of Daily Temperature Time Series from GCM Output. Part II: Sensitivity Analysis of an Empirical Transfer Function Methodology. Journal of Climate, Vol 10, Issue 10, Pages 2514-2352.   WHO (2003). Climate Change and Human Health – Risks and Responses.Summery.http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/cchhsummary/en/   Zandi, A (2005). Climate change and extreme colds in Iran. MSc thesis, Razi University.   Zhao Zong, Sumi Akimasa, Harada Chikako, Nozawa Toto (2003). Projections of Extreme Temperature over East Asia for the 21st Century as Simulated by the CCSR/NIES2 Coupled Model Proceeding of the International Symposium of Climate Change (ISCC). Beijing: China.        تغییر آب و هوا، یکی از چالش‌های برجسته سده جاری است. در این میان تغییرات دما به عنوان پایه ای ترین عنصر آب و هوایی هر ناحیه از اهمیت ویژه ای برخوردار است. در این مطالعه، فرضیه جابه جایی هسته‌های زمانی و مکانی موج‌های هوای سرد در قالب پایین ترین دماهای ماهانه برای ناحیه کوهستانی غرب و شمال غرب ایران بررسی شد. در جهت دستیابی به این هدف، داده‌های پایین ترین دماهای ثبت شده ماه‌های نوامبر تا می برای یک دوره 30 ساله (2005-1976) برای 11 ایستگاه منتخب از سازمان هواشناسی کشور دریافت گردید. سپس با انتخاب موج‌های شاخص سرماهای سالانه که بر پایه معیارهایی همچون حداقل چهار ایستگاه در قالب یک گروه دارای پایین ترین دماهای حداقل و همچنین دو روز فاصله میان موج انتخاب شده با گروه ایستگاه‌های قبل، جابه جایی‌های زمانی و مکانی موج‌های سرما و روند تغییرات آنها بررسی شد. نتایج حاصل از این تحقیق نشان می دهد که: یک جابه جایی در هسته‌های مکانی موج‌های شاخص سرما در طول دوره مورد مطالعه (2005-1976) از عرض‌های جغرافیایی حدود 35 درجه به سمت عرض‌های جغرافیایی بالاتر از 36 درجه انجام شده است. همچنین نتایج حاصل از تحلیل روند هسته‌های زمانی موج‌های شاخص نیز نشان دهندۀ از یک جابه جایی در هسته‌های زمانی وقوع سرماهای شدید در غرب و شمال غرب ایران است؛ بدین صورت که هسته‌های زمانی شاخص سالانه ازاوایل ماه فوریه و اواخر ماه ژانویه به سوی اوایل ماه ژانویه و حتی اواخر ماه دسامبر جابه جایی نشان می دهند، اما شایان ذکر است که این جابه جایی‌ها در سطح احتمالاتی 5 درصد تأیید نشده است. نکته دیگری که از این پژوهش منتج گردیده، این است که با توجه به جابه جایی هسته‌های مکانی و زمانی موج‌های سرماهای شاخص در غرب و شمال غرب ایران، دمای موج‌های شاخص روندی کاهشی داشته‌اند؛ یعنی به سمت سردتر شدن سوق پیدا کرده‌اند.    https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_18484_1f8556d01c4160389b3a59b93cacc813.pdf

دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 22 1 2011 05 22 Tourism development in rural areas of karganrud based ontourists opinions امکان سنجی توسعه گردشگری در نواحی روستایی از دیدگاه گردشگران(بخش کرگانرود شهرستان تالش) 69 84 18485 FA سید حسن مطیعی‌لنگرودی استاد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران ماهره نصرتی کارشناس ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2016 06 14   Tourism development in rural areas of karganrud based ontourists opinions     S. H. Motiee Langrudi. ( * ),  Professor of Geography and Rural Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.   email: shmotiee@ut.ac.ir     M. Nosrati. M. A of Geography and Rural Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.   Received: 2 June 2009 / Accepted: 19 October 2010, 17-19 P     Extended Abstract   1- Introduction   The development of tourism in rural areas brings more jab opportunities, higher income and also decreasing poverty as well as its cultural and ecological advantages.   Never the less, weakness of efficient planning is a problem to develop tourism.   The purpose of this research is investigation of tourism development in Karganrud rural areas location in Talesh city.     2- Methodology   Methodology of research was based on analytical – descriptive methods using questionnaires needed data have been achieved.     According to the lack of tourism numbers, to questionnaires were completed during spring and summer (peak season of tourism). The data were analyzed by spss software and pearson correlation coefficient and Likert spectrum.     3- Discussion   Whenever the international and national implications prevent tourism development, internal development, especially in undevelopment areas can plays a main role in the development. Nowadays, most of the rural areas with attractive environments attract tourism annual holidays.   Dynamism of the economical activities is necessary for the rural economical development. Tourism is one of the fundamental elements for rural development.   It provides the seasonal and part time employment, develops communication networks, electric power and pipe water foundation, etc which are need for tourism activities. The above advantages led to the development of habitable areas of villages. The rural development is challenged by decrease of economical recession and the lowering villager's income, emigration of young population. So the village economy seems to be an important issue. If tourism development i designed perfectly, will extend cultural diversity and rural development.     4- Conclusion   Studied area, in spite of high potential about tourism attractions, does not develop in agricultural and economical aspects.   The results show that there is a meaningful co relation between the natural landscapes attractions, historical places, fundamental facilities, clinics, restaurants, security, affairs and the number of tourists who visited the district, and the possibility of tourism development in the area is affected by the mentioned. At the same time other social and cultural factors don't have any meaningful effects on the number of tourists. There are any culture and social attractions in karganroud district. Managers can consider cultural attractions to develop tourism.   Key words : possibility, tourism planning, rural development, karganroud district .     References   Biekmohamadi, H. (1379). New trends on the economic effects of tourism development on Iran political economic information, No 157-158.   Ghaderi, Zahed. (1383). the basic concepts of the programming of tourism development of rural development, the national organization of manipulations and rural rulers publication, 1st edition, Tehran.   Gilan province, the organization of management and programming(1378-79). geographical information, gilan region, the information of agriculture and villages of gilan province GIS and volume.   Javan, Jafar& saghaee, mahdi. (1383). the role of rural tourism on regional development, the rural management, , the seasonal publications entitled geography and regional development, No 2, Mashad Ferdowsi university.   Jmehpor, Mahmod. (1378). stable development, the role of co- operation in management and utilization of natural resources the essays collection in natural resources seminar, development and co- operation, national jungles and pastures organization, Tehran.   Mahdizadeh Javad. (1379). tourism development, by considering the urban and regional programming, the manipulation and rural rulers publication, No 15,Tehran.   Motiee langrudi, seyed Hassan. (1379). cultural tourism, a way of nation relation and civilizations talk, the essays of international culture and geography seminar, Mashad Ferdowsi University .   Motiee, langrudi seyed Hassan. (1375). the goals of tourism in Khorasan province geographical researches seasonal publications, No 41, Razvi Ghodse Astane publication .   Motiee langrudi, seyed Hassan. (1382). rural programming in Iran, 1st edition Jahad Daneshgahi publication, Mashhad.   Rezvani, Ali Asghar. (1380). ecotourism and its role in Bio- environment protection economical and political information, No 173-174.   Rezvani, Ali Asghar. (1374). Geography and tourism industry, P.N.U   Publication, second edition, Tehran.   Rezvani, Ali Asghar. (1380). city and village interactions in Iran P.N.U publication, 4st edition, theran.   Sharply, Richard, Jullia. (1380). rural tourism, translated by Rahmatulla, Manshizadeh, Fatem Nasiri, Monshi publication, 1st edition, Tehran.   Tayeb, A. (1379). cultural issues and the programming of tourism development political and economical information, No, 157-158.   The center of statistics. (1385). Iran the general census of population and housing the city of Talesh.   Tourist consulate advisors, 1351, the general plan of development of tourism in Iran, the policies, priorities and facilities the budget and program organization Tehran.   The gilan organization of management and programming. (1383). the map of Gilan province villages and towns.   Aslihan Aykac. (2005). contemporary patterns of labor transformation evidence from Turkish tourism industry.   Butler Richard Hall,C.Michael,&, Jenkins Jhon 1998, tourism and recreation in rural areas.   Briedenhann, J and Wickens. E. (2004). Tourism Routes as a Tool for the Economic Development of Rural Areas- Vibrant hope or Impossible Dream. Tourism management available on the www.elsever .Com/locate/ tourist man   Chol, Hwan- Suk (2003). measurement of sustainable development progress for managing community tourism, admission submitted the office of graduate studies of   Texas A & M university for the degree of doctor of philosophy.   Yolanda M.Leon (2004). community impacts of coastal tourism in The Dominican republic.   Djekic, Snezana. (2007). Some structures and principles of sustainable rural tourism available on Ceeol. Com / aspx/ get document. aspx? Logid = 5& id288 aaebe-4192-43b1-9627.   Sharpley,Richard (2002). Rural tourism and the challenge of tourism diversification: the case of Cyprus tourism Management 23.        توسعه گردشگری در روستاها، گسترش فرصتهای شغلی، ایجاد درآمد اضافی و فقرزدایی را در مناطق روستایی به ارمغان می آورد، و مزایای فرهنگی و زیست - محیطی نیز به دنبال دارد، اما همواره خلأ برنامه ریزی کار آمد، در سیاستهای توسعه روستایی برای فراهم آوری، یا یک پارچه کردن گردشگری، احساس می شود. هدف این پژوهش، امکان سنجی توسعه گردشگری در نواحی روستایی بخش کرگانرود شهرستان تالش بوده و روش تحقیق، توصیفی- تحلیلی است. داده‌های تحقیق از طریق پرسشنامه و مستندات آماری و نقشه ای حاصل شده است. از آن جا که در مورد تعداد گردشگرانی که سالانه به بخش کرگانرود وارد می شوند، هیچ گونه آماری در دسترس نیست، برای این منظور، طی چند مرحله در فصل گردشگری(تابستان و عید نوروز) تعداد 70 پرسشنامه توسط گردشگران تکمیل گردید. نتایج این پژوهش نشان می دهد که بین جاذبه‌های طبیعی و یادمانهای تاریخی، میزان پذیرش گردشگران از سوی مردم بومی و امکان توسعه گردشگری در بخش کرگانرود رابطه معناداری وجود دارد، اما بین دیگر جاذبه‌های فرهنگی و اجتماعی و امکان توسعه گردشگری در بخش کرگانرود، رابطه معناداری وجود ندارد. به لحاظ این که بخش کرگانرود از توان جاذبه‌های فرهنگی و اجتماعی برخودار است، مسؤولان و مدیران منطقه با به روز کردن این توان‌ها در توسعه گردشگری منطقه می‌توانند بسیار مؤثر باشند.    https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_18485_5a5d31b4bc6325377e8814e26fec624f.pdf

دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 22 1 2011 05 22 Application of fuzzy system and fuzzy clustering in climatology (temperature zoning of Chaharmahal&Bakhteyari province) کاربردسامانه و مجموعه‌های فازی در پهنه بندی دمایی (استان چهارمحال و بختیاری) 85 96 18486 FA داریوش رحیمی استادیار اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران قدیر ولی‌پور دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران حجت‌اله یزدانپناه استادیار اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران Journal Article 2016 06 14   Application of fuzzy system and fuzzy clustering in climatology (temperature zoning of Chaharmahal&Bakhteyari province)     D. Rahimi. ( * ),  Assistant professor of climatology, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.   email: dariush111353@yahoo.com     G. Valipoor.  M.A. student of climatology, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.     H. Yazdanpanah.   Assistant professor of climatology, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.   Received: 21 Desember 2009 / Accepted: 13 October 2010, 23-26 P     Extended Abstract   1- Introduction   Zoning techniques, including point and linear are spatial data analysis methods. Classification systems typically measure the distance and rely on probability theory should be . Classification is done using numerical techniques ( zero and one binary logic ) and non- numerical ( symbol processing field and fuzzy logic fuzzy set ). Temperature of the portion of solar radiation energy is absorbed to the surface effects and energy is converted to heat. This article has been tried using the system and fuzzy sets are determined temperature zone Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari province .     Case study: A study area of Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari is an area of 16,403 kilometers (Figure 1).The province with the average height of 2153 m and 3600 m elevation difference from sea level is considered a mountainous region that has a significant temperature differences .   Material: Data are used , including an annual average temperature data stations Province (Table ( 1). These data were measured and recorded in the period 1976-2005 . Table ( a) shows the average height and temperature stations province .     Table 1- station temperature profile   of e Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari .   Station   Height   Average temperature   Average Max   Average Min   ImamGhaes   2400   10.3   18.7   2   Broujen   2197   9.1   18.8   2.8   Beheshtabad   1670   13.7   22.2   5.2   Dezak abad   2150   9.8   17   2   Solegan   2170   11.5   19.3   3.5   Shahrekord   2061   11.8   20.2   3.4   Avergan   2440   9.3   16.8   2.2   Dezak   2280   10.6   19.3   1.8   Kohrang   2285   8.35   19   2.6   Lordegan   1570   15.2   24.1   6.2   Marghmalek   860   20.1   27.4   12.7   Monj   1430   16.1   26.7   8.1   2-Methodology   Methods used in this article are based on fuzzy logic, multi-value method, nearest neighbor classification, indicators of class membership and the amount of members in the categories overlap. For nearest neighbor classification method has been used in the Euclidean distance fuzzy logic (Function 1):       Fuzzy Membership Function indicators are calculated using the following Function:     (2)   FBF z(x)=1 / { 1+(Z (X) – b1—d1/d1)}ifz(x)< (b1+d1)     (3)   FBFz(X) = IF(b1+d1) z(x) (b2-d2)     (4)   FBFZ(x) =1/{1+(Z(x) – b2 –d2/d2}Ifz(x)> (b2-d2)     Functions 2, 3 and 4 are marked degree of membership (FMF) Edit in clusters. With the help of these functions can be created between users and insert the terms of their membership in a state of optimal and possible.     3- Discussions   Fuzzy inference rules package (Rule Base) created is the most important step in the use of fuzzy logic. Therefore, based on certain principles of physics, was created using the correlation relationship between temperature and its effective factors such as altitude, relative humidity, latitude, longitude and precipitation depending on fuzzy inference rules. Set of fuzzy inference rules include: If the increased latitude then the temperature will be relatively low. If the increase of longitude then the temperature will be relatively low. If the increased of height then reduce temperature extreme. If the increases of relative humidity, then adjust the temperature.   Inference rules based on closed FBF index and temperature are three groups in the province of Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari. Figure 1 shows the temperature groups based on FBF Other factor affecting the temperature is classified index ASW. This indicator shows the influence of different groups on each other. So the index value (ASW) in the group is equal 0.559, 0.0189, 0.5176 and the average index equal to 0.335 in the province. Figure (2) shows the temperature groups in Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari.   .       Figure 1- The temperature groups based on FBF.       Figure 2- The temperature groups based on AWS.       4- Conclusion   The results show that in chahar mahal&bakhteari province three different temperature zones including: Shahrekord with average temperature 11-13 (c0), (cold zone), Koohrang with average temperature 8-11(c0) (very cold), and Lordegan with average temperature 14-20 (c0) (temperate and semi-warm).The first zone with ASW and area of 0.559 and 18.89%. Including Borojen and Pol-e-zamankhan,the second one with ASW and area of 0.018 and 53.97% including: Kohrang ,Imamgees,Solegan,Oregan and Dezak ,and the last zone with ASW and area of 0.517 and 27.13%inculoding Lordegan, Monj, Marghak, Beheshtabad and Barz.   Key words: Temperature, classification, fuzzy logic, fuzzy, fuzzy clustering, Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari Province       References   Alborzi, Mahmoud. (1999). Introduction to Neural Networks, Second Edition, Sharif University of Technology.   Ghaffari, Ali. (1999). Fuzzy Thinking, Khaje Nasir Toosi University.   Ramesht, Mohammad Hussein. (1999). fuzzy geography and natural systems, Journal of Geographical Research, 52, and 53 195 Serial to 206.   Zahedi, Morteza. (1999). Fuzzy Set Theory and its application – Nashreh aneshgahi.   Zahydy Reza. (1380). uses fuzzy logic, neural networks - ISIRAN Institute.   Plan and Budget Organization. (1985). Master Plan Air and climatology section Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari Province.   Meteorological Organization. (1952-2001). Statistical Yearbook of Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari stations   Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari Regional Water Company. (1966-2000). Planning and Studies Department Publishers.   Alijani, Bohlole. (1995). climate in Iran, Payam Noor University Publishers.   Alijani Bohlo and Kaviani, Mohammad Reza. (1992). Fundamentals of climate studies - Samt publication.   Ghayoor Hasanali and, Seyed Abolfazl Masoodian. (1997). Principles of Geographic Information Systems, University of Isfahan Publishers.   BjarneK.hansen &Denis Riordan. (2001). Weather Prediction Using Case based reasoning &Fuzzy Set Theory   BrianP.Mackey. (2004). Anon –liner fuzzy set technique for combing precipitation forcasts, 20thconferenceon Meteorological and Forecasting.   Burrough, P.A. (1989). Principles of geo graphical information systems for land resources assessment. Oxford University Press.   Burrough, P. A. (1989). Fuzzy mathematical methods for soil survey and land evaluation.Journal of soil science. No 40   Denis Riordan&BjarneK.Hansen. (2002). A Fuzzy Case_Based Model For Casting.        روش سامانه‌ها و خوشه بندی فازی، یکی ازتکنیک‌های نو در شناخت پدیده‌های است که با تاکید بربیان متغیرهای زبانی و شاخص‌های میزان درجه عضویت اعضای، میانگین و عرض همپوشانی به کمک قوانین استنتاج فازی انجام می پذیرد. این سامانه که بر پایه نقش تمامی اجزای یک سیستم در شکل گیری یک پدیده استوار است، هدف اصلی نشان داده مرزهای در فضای خاکستری در خصوص جداسازی جوامع از یکدیگر دارد.لذا دما به عنوان یک عنصر افلیمی که دارای پیوستگی آثار خارج از منطق دو دویی است، انتخاب شده و البته، استان چهارمحال و بختیاری به عنوان یک پهنه متنوع اقلیمی با نمودهای خاص و قابل توجه انتخاب شده است. در این مطالعه به منظور شناخت پهنه‌های دمایی، استان چهارمحال و بختیاری با استفاده از روش مجموعه‌ها و خوشه بندی فازی طبقه بندی شده است.بررسی‌ها در این استان با استفاده از روش فازی و خوشه بندی آن بر اساس فاصله اقلیدسی حکایت از وجود سه گروه دمایی شهرکرد با متوسط دمایی 13-11 درجه سانتیگراد(ناحیه سرد)، کوهرنگ با متوسط دمایی 11-8 درجه سانتی گراد(بسیار سرد)، وگروه لردگان با متوسط دمایی 20-14 درجه سانتی گراد(معتدل و نیمه گرم) دارد. این تنوع دمایی در محدوده استان منجر به واحدهای ارضی متعدد،توان اکولوژیک متنوع سرزمین و پوشش گیاهی متفاوت شده است. https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_18486_cde91984962d6f6833003950e5df840d.pdf

دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 22 1 2011 05 22 Study of Ecological Capital with EF Index: Case Study, Iran بررسی پایداری منابع بوم شناختی با استفاده از شاخص جای ‌پای بوم‌شناسی: مورد ایران 97 106 18487 FA محمدحسین سرایی دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران* عبدالحمید زارعی فرشاد دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری ، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران Journal Article 2016 06 14   Study of Ecological Capital with EF Index: Case Study, Iran   M. H. Saraei. ( * ),  Associate Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.   Email: msaraei@yazduni.ac.ir     A. Zareei.   M. A. student of Geography and Urban Planning, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.   Received: 21 Desember 2009 / Accepted: 13 October 2010, 27-29 P     Extended Abstract   1- Introduction   The Ecological Footprint (EF) is an impact assessment tool of human on nature. This index, measures population requires to absorb wastes.   The ecological footprint provides a comprehensive comparison of natural resources demand. The EF compares the actual geographic area or footprint of a region (e.g., city, country, etc.) with the virtual footprint that would be required for that region to be sustaining Region.   The management of natural capital including its ability to renew itself represents a core aspect of sustainability. The ecological footprint is now a widely accepted indicator of sustainable development.     With the Ecological Footprint, countries, cities or organizations can assess their sustainability performance. Many EF estimations have been performed on global, national and sub-national levels.   Reducing the Ecological Footprint of a population or an organization fundamentally relate to changes of behavior. A reduction in the Ecological Footprint of a particular activity or person may be achieved through. Changes in several cases, such as, consumed resources waste materials type of consumed food.   These footprints variations is caused by between countries in different stages of economic development and geographic characteristics .     2- Methodology   Generally, two complementary approaches have to calculate EF: deduction methods.   - In the deduction method, which developed by Wackernagel and Rees, the EF calculates using a consumption-land use matrix consisting five major consumption categories and six major land use categories. Consumption categories include food, housing, transportation, consumer goods, services, and wastes. Land use categories extracted from human economy activities include cropland and pasture land (for production of food and goods), built-up land (to support infrastructure), forest (for the production of wood products), sea land (food production), and Energy land.   - In the reduction-based method, the EF values calculate for certain activities using appropriated data for each considered regions. The land categories originally proposed by Wackernagel and Rees .   In the studies global/national levels usually applied compound deduction methodology, whereas in the municipal, household, and individual levels studies have been applied a component-based reduction approach .     3- Discussion   In this study, have been assessed Iran ecological capitals consume for years of 1357 until 1380. In this study have been used five agents: energy land, sea land, built-up land, crop land and pasture land. With increase of the population country in 23 recent years (1977-2000), population reached to 68/9 million in 2000. Therefore capital consumes of country has been increased 2000.   The bio capacity of Iran is 0.8 ha per capita in 2000 year. Whereas capital consumes was equal with 2.38 ha. So capital consumes of Iran is about three fold bio capacities. Therefore were determined consume of Iran.     4- Conclusion   Total Ecological Footprint for the Iran population was increased after 1977 year quantity was in 2000 with 2.38 ha. And so few quantity is in 1978 with 1.55ha that highest. Therefore with lasting time, population growth and increasing demand in social, the Ecological Footprint quantity of Iran has been increased.   In this study, was survied Iran Ecological capital after the Islamic revolution until 2000. With studying and so statistics was determined that Ecological Capital in Iran is unstable.   Keyword: The Ecological Footprint Index, Sustainable Development, Ecological Capital, Iran     References   Arjmandnia, Asgar. (2001).” Ecological Footprint new pattern in assessment of Ecology“,Journal of city management, 6. Tehran.   Asayesh, Hossein. (2002). “Principals and methods of the rural planning” Pyam Noor Press.3. Tehran.   Barrett, J & Cherret, N & Birch, R. (2001). Exploring the Application of the Ecological Footprint to Sustainable Consumption Policy. University of York, 234-247.   Braun, L & other. (1990). “World nearby 2000” Translated by Mehrsima Falsafy, Sorosh Press, Theran.   Costanza, R. (2000). Forum: the ecological footprint. Ecological Economics, 32, 341-344.   Hammond, Geoffrey. (2005). ‘People, Planet and Prosperity’: The Determinants of Humanity’s Environmental Footprint. Natural Resources Forum, 1-29.   Herendeen, R.A. (2000). 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World Wildlife Fund for Nature   World Wide Fund for Nature. (2006). Living Planet Report 2006.   WWW. EcoFootprint. org   Zhang, Ying. (2005). the Change of Ecological Footprint and Its Effect on Sustainable Development in Beijing of China. Chinese Business Review, 4, No.10, 1-13.       جای‌پای بوم‌شناختی یک ابزار ارزیابی میزان ارتباط انسان با طبیعت است. این شاخص، کیفیت نیازهای یک گروه انسانی را که با مقدار مشخصی از سطح زمین و آب، به تولید منابع مصرفی و دفع مواد زائد حاصل از زندگی خود اقدام می‌کند، اندازه‌گیری می‌نماید. جای پای بوم شناختی، مقایسه جامعی از تقاضا و مقدار عرضه منابع طبیعی ارائه می‌دهد. در ارزیابی‌های جای‌پای بوم‌شناختی، جای‌پای بوم‌شناختی واقعی یک منطقه(مانند: شهر، کشور و غیره) با جای‌ پای بوم شناختی بالقوه‌ای که برای پایداری آن منطقه مورد نیاز خواهد بود، سنجیده می‌شود. مدیریت منابع طبیعی به توانایی و سرعت تجدید آن منابع در راستای توسعه پایدار مربوط می‌شود. هم اکنون جای‌پای بوم‌شناختی به عنوان یک شاخص توسعه پایدار به طور گسترده پذیرفته شده است. کشورها، شهرها یا سازمان‌ها با سنجش مقدار جای‌پای بوم‌شناسی شان می‌توانند پایداری فعالیت‌هایشان را ارزیابی کنند. تاکنون تخمین‌های بسیاری از مقدار جای‌پای بوم‌شناختی در سطوح مختلف جهانی، ملی و منطقه‌ای ارائه شده‌ است. کاهش جای پای بوم شناختی یک جمعیت یا سازمان اساساً به تغییر در رفتار افراد مربوط می‌شود. کاهش جای پای بوم شناختی یک شخص یا یک فعالیت ویژه، ممکن است به واسطه تغییر در مواردی، نظیر: منابعی که مصرف شده‌اند، چگونگی به وجود آمدن مواد زائد و نوع غذای مصرف شده باشد. چنین جای‌ ‌پای‌های بوم‌شناختی‌ ناشی از اختلاف بین کشورها در مراحل مختلف توسعه اقتصادی و خصوصیات جغرافیایی مختلف آنها است. ما در این پژوهش به دنبال این هستیم تا منابع بوم‌شناختی ایران را از انقلاب اسلامی تا سال 1380 بررسی کنیم. با بررسی‌های و همچنین آمارهای ارائه شده، مشخص گردید که منابع اکولوژیک در ایران به صورت ناپایدار استفاده شده است. https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_18487_2d7189c64f63eecec6e111ecaf2598a9.pdf

دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 22 1 2011 05 22 A Survey of Density Effect on the Vulnerability of Earthquake in Isfahan City (Fuzzy Approach) بررسی تأثیرات تراکم بر آسیب پذیری ناشی از زلزله در شهر اصفهان ( با رویکرد فازی ) 107 122 18488 FA صفر قائدرحمتی استادیار جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران ایمان باستانی‌فر دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران لیلا سلطانی دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران Journal Article 2016 06 14   A Survey of Density Effect on the Vulnerability of Earthquake in Isfahan City (Fuzzy Approach)     S. Ghaedrahmati. ( * ),  Assistant Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.   email: safarrahmati@yazduni.ac.ir     I. Bastanifar. PhD student in economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.     L. Soltani .  PhD student in Geography and Urban Planning, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.   Received: 15 May 2009 / Accepted: 13 October 2010, 31-34 P     Extended Abstract   1- Introduction   For few decades, the population of cities in developing countries, including Iran had a higher growth rate than the total growth rate of countries’ population. The cities in the developing countries have become areas of very high vulnerability to natural hazards such as earthquake. Analysis of urban density using statistical data has a crucial role in the urban geographic studies and urban planning. Based on studying type urban density can be measured by different models. While in developed countries, the development of the big cities began centuries ago and generally allows for     controlled and planned urban density, the opposite is the case in developing countries, where rapid urbanization's process is characterized by an unplanned urban density. The developing metropolitan cities have enormous difficulties in coping both with the natural population increase and the urban physical expansion. In fact, urbanization process increases the vulnerability through centralization of human and property. Because of unplanned urbanization, growth of land in vulnerable areas with a high level of hazard risk, inadequate urban management and unsuitable construction measures, third world cities transform into vulnerable centers.density in metropolitan such as Isfahan ,beside growing population ,without caring to economic, social, spatial ,aesthetic and the other urban planning effects ,has created many conflicts so has drown the urban planners attentions.       2- Methodology   This research has aimed to achieve a logic urban density model (land use, high and population density) and survey the effect of it on the Isfahan vulnerability of earthquake using fuzzy approach .This research is based on the density model based on the fuzzy logic and documentary in the way of data collecting   For mapping, measuring, and modeling the urban density in connection with active faults, various data on geology, seismology and demography of study were collected. These data was in form of map and census data. The study area is Isfahan city is located about 340 km south of Tehran and is the capital of Isfahan Province and Iran 's third largest city (after Tehran and Mashhad ). Isfahan city has a population of 1695789 and the Isfahan metropolitan area had a population of 3,430,353 in the 2006 Census, the third most populous metropolitan area in Iran after Tehran and Mashhad.     3- Discussion   Various disasters like earthquake are natural hazard that kill thousands of people and destroy billions of dollars of habitat and property each year. The rapid growth of the urban density and its increased concentration often in hazardous environment has escalated both the frequency and severity of natural disasters.   In research about earthquake hazard, Isfahan city is at high risk earthquake hazard. In this research, analysis relationship between urban density and earthquake vulnerability and the effects of urban centralization on earthquake vulnerability in Isfahan cities, was studied. With regard to historical earthquake, earthquake seismicity background and varieties faults, Isfahan cities are at high risk of earthquake hazard.   The seismic vulnerability of a region is determined by several factors. One of them is the level of seismic hazard, determined usually by identification of either active faults or seismic zone source, zones based on the historical location of earthquake epicenters .recent neotectonic studies consider that Isfahan had been developed on and close to six active fault basins. Isfahan's location between six active faults means it is subject to natural hazards like earthquake shaking, earthquake fault rupture and land deformation. As these active faults start to move, Isfahan will continue to be subject to earthquake-related hazards.In this research, analysis relationship between urban dencity and earthquake vulnerability, and use of documentary data. The effects of urban centralization on earthquake vulnerability in Hormozgan cities, was studied.     4- Conclusion   The results have showed that, in the survey of urban density, the relation between land use, high and population density should be considered also fuzzy approach in data normalization is one of the best approaches for solving this problem. The greatest coefficients of Vulnerability are land use, and population density.   In this way, without caring to the density distribution, urban compacting in the specific region and so citizen tendency for specific residency of the same region will increase the vulnerability of earthquake. Zone 3 and 6 in Isfahan city has the highest meaning ranking of are vulnerability than other zone .On the other hand these zones has the greatest amount of all land use, high and population density. So satiation of these zones in recent years and the historical texture of them need the changing of policy density more than before.   Key words: high density, population density, land use density, urban Vulnerability Fuzzy logic, Isfahan City.     Reference   Ahmady , Hasan and Mohamadreza ShikhKazem, (2006). "The role of planning for construction density in earthquake vulnerability decrease", the 2th international conference in crisis management and disaster.   Akbari , nematolah and Mahdi Zahedikwyvan, (2008). The use of ranking methods and indicators decision making, dehyariha and shardariha publication, 1th publich, Tehran.   Ambraseys, N.N.and Melville,C.P. (1982).A history of Persian earthquake, Cambridge earth science series .   Aryafar , Alireza (2002). 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Iranian code of practice for seismic resistant design of buildings, standard No.2800, 2nd edition, BHRC publication, Tehran.   Uitto , J.I, (1998). “The geography of disaster vulnerability in mega-cities” Vol 18, No 1.   Vojoodi , Mahdi and mahdi zareh, (2006)." Fuzzy deduction model for analysis of earthquake hazard "the 2th international conference in crisis manegment and disaster.   Waugh ,W,L, ( 2000 ). “Living with hazard: dealing with disaster”, an introduction to emergency management, New York, USA, M.E. Sharpe, Inc.   Zangiabadi , ali, jamal mohamadi, homayoun safayei and safar ghaedrahmati, (2008)." Vulnerability Indicators Assessment of Urban Housing against the Earthquake Hazard. (Case Study: Isfahan Housing)", geography and development journal, vole 12, sistan and balochestan university publication, zahedan.   Zeyari , keramatollah, (2002). Urban land use planning, Yazd university publication, first publish, Yazd.        وضعیت تراکم در شهرهای بزرگ از جمله اصفهان، با افزایش جمعیت و بدون توجه به آثار اجتماعی، اقتصادی، فضایی - کالبدی و زیبایی شناختی، مسایل و مشکلاتی را به وجود آورده که توجه برنامه ریزان شهری را به خود جلب کرده است. پژوهش حاضر به دنبال دستیابی به یک الگوی منطقی از تراکم ( کاربری، ارتفاعی و جمعیتی ) در شهر اصفهان و تأثیر آن بر آسیب پذیری ناشی از زلزله با رویکرد فازی صورت گرفته است. پژوهش از نوع کاربردی، روش پژوهش بر اساس مدل استنتاج فازی و روش جمع آوری داده‌ها به صورت اسنادی است. اهداف این پژوهش، شامل؛ شناسایی وضعیت تراکم جمعیتی، تراکم کاربری و تراکم ارتفاعی ( ساختمانی ) در مناطق شهر اصفهان و کشف ارتباط بین میزان تراکم‌های شهری و آسیب پذیری ناشی از زلزله در شهر اصفهان است. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که در بررسی وضعیت تراکم شهری، در نظر گرفتن رابطه بین سه نوع تراکم جمعیتی، ارتفاعی و کاربری الزامی است. همچنین، رویکرد فازی در نرمال سازی داده‌های مربوط به تراکم‌های شهری، یکی از بهترین رویکردها محسوب می‌شود. بیشترین ضریب در بخش آسیب پذیری لرزه ای به ترتیب مربوط به تراکم‌های کاربری و جمعیتی است؛ به عبارت دیگر، ادامه روند فشردگی شهر در مناطق خاص و نیز گرایش شهروندان به سکونت در همان مناطق، بدون توجه به توزیع متعادل، میزان آسیب پذیری لرزه ای را افزایش می‌دهد. در نهایت، مناطق 1 و 6 شهر اصفهان به ترتیب بالاترین میانگین رتبه تراکم را دارند؛ به عبارت دیگر، عمده تراکم‌های جمعیتی، کاربری و ارتفاعی در این مناطق است. https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_18488_26e2ca5adff2c6f68c75dc49a9a2a3d1.pdf

دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 22 1 2011 05 22 Synoptic analysis of heavy rain in South of Iran (case study: Heavy rain in the Dalaki river basin in period of 31 December 1984 - 4 January 1985) بررسی سینوپتیکی بارش‌های سنگین در جنوب ایران( مطالعه موردی بارش 31 دسامبر 1984 لغایت 4 ژانویه 1985 حوضه آبریز رودخانه دالکی) 123 136 18489 FA اکرم پرنده خوزانی کارشناسی ارشد اقلیم شناسی، اداره کل هواشناسی استان اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران حسن لشکری دانشیار اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2016 06 14   Synoptic analysis of heavy rain in South of Iran (case study : Heavy rain in the Dalaki river basin in period of 31 December 1984 - 4 January 1985)    A. Parandeh Khozani. ( * ),  Senior Expert of Climatology in Esfahan Meteorology Bureau   email: parandeh_153@yahoo.com     H. Lashkari.   Associate professor of climatology, Sahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.   Received: 18 May 2009 / Accepted: 10 March 2009, 35-37 P     Extended Abstract   1- Introduction   Heavy rain is the most common and widespread of all weather-related natural disasters that have caused considerable losses to the human throughout history.   In south of Iran and Dalaki river basin this damages are significant.   Thus, Diagnosis and Prediction of distractive heavy rains and its intensity in region is very important (essential).   The aim of this study is to recognize the synoptic pattern leading to distractive rain in Dalaki river basin located in south of Iran.     In order to prevent damages of these phenomena and water resource management, it is better to study heavy rain in different regions with synoptical method.     2- Metodology   In order to obtain this, Circulation pattern of the upper and lower and its advection during precipitation was investigated. At First, Daily synoptic maps from surface to 500 hpa levels of 48 hours before the occurrence of precipitation were investigated and finally considering their arrange, extension, direction of movement, the position of cyclones and anti-cyclones were analyzed. Furthermore, in upper levels trough lines were carefully traced and analyzed.       3- Discussion   Strengthing activity mentioned system has been influenced by following factors:   -The existence of an anticyclone on Oman Sea and the East of Arabestan provides enough moisture for feeding this system in the highest precipitation day.   -The Spread of Siberian anticyclone tongue over Iran and South of Iran, before the start of precipitation, causes the falling of cold weather from high latitude and increase the thermal gradian over the region.   -The existence of high Azores center at the levels of 500 and 700 Hectopascal that causes strengthening thermal gradian over the region by falling of cold weather from its East over the North of Africa and Meditranian Sea and also made Sudan heat low centers and Red Sea convergence zone to be active and become dinamic and termodinamic   -The existence of high Arabestan at the levels of 700 and 500 Hectopascal is need for transition of hot and humid weather into the system.     4- Conclusion   Synoptic analysis of heavy rain in Dalaki river basin Located in south of Iran , showed that in surface level ,heavy rain mainly is caused by Siberian anticyclone and high Azores and simultaneous merging of the Sudan heat low (SHL) system and Mediterranean frontal system (MFS). In upper levels of Atmosphere high Azores located in back of system and high Arabestan in front of system and deep Trough North Africa are the main factors that could intensify the heavy rain intensities over the basin.   Keywords: Synoptic analysis Heavy rain Dalaki river basin South of Iran     References   JAMAB Engineering Consulting (water) Company, with Ministry of Energy, Water Comprehensive Plan, Surface Water Resources, Shapour-Dalaki (Helleh) river basin, Volum1, Tehran, Iranian Ministry of Energy.   Arabi, Zahra. (1385). Synoptic Analysis of Precipitation in Period (21- 26) JUL (Tir) 1387 in Iran, Journal of Geographical Research, Number 56. Tehran.   Alijani, Bohlol. (1372). Precipitation Ascent Mechanisms in Iran, Journal Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Theacher Training University Tehran, Number 1, Tehran.   Lashkari, Hassan. (1375). Synoptic Pattern of Extreme Precipitation in South-Western in Iran, PHD Thesis, Ghaemi, Hooshang, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Tarbiat Modarres University.   Najarslygh, Mohammad. (1385). Mechanisms of Precipitation in South- East of Iran. Journal of Geographical Research, Number 55, Tehran.   Moradi, Hamid Reza. (1380). Synoptic survey of flood 21th Novamber(Aban)1375 the central regions of Mazandaran Province. Journal of Geographical Education Growth, N. 56, Tehran.   Synoptic Maps of the Country Meteorological Organization and Climatic Atlas of Russia.   Angel, J. K ., and J.Koeshover. (1992).“ Relation between 300-mb north polar vortex and equatorial SST, QBO, and sunspot number and the record contraction of the vortex in 1988-89”. J. Climate., 5, 22-29   Calena , G., Barbet, D., (1992). Influence of vegetation cover on flood hydrology in experimental basins if Mt. lozere. Hydrology Continental, 7: 1, 33-49   Divis, R. E., and S. R. Benkovic. (1992). “Climatological variations in the northern hemisphere circumpolar vortex in January ” Theor. APPL. Climatol., 46, 63-74.   Dunkerton, T. J., and D. P. Delisi. (1986). “evolution of potential vorticity in the winter stratosphere of January February (1979) ”Geophys. Res. Lett., 91, 1199-1208.     Harvey, V. L., and M. H. Hitchman. (2004). “a climatology of the Aleution High ” J. of the atmospheric sciences., Vol. 53. No. 14.   Robert A. Maddox, faya canova and L. ray Hoxi. (Nov 1980), meteorologyical characteristics of flash flood events over the western united stated. Monthly weather review Vol. 108.   Pierre camberlin. (1995). June – September rainfall in north easthern affrica and atmospheric signals over the tropics: A zonal prespetive. International journal of climatology vol.15.                 به منظور بررسی شرایط سینوپتیکی مربوط به بارش 31 دسامبر1984 تا 4 ژانویه 1985 رود خانه دالکی،الگوی گردش فوقانی وتحتانی ونحوه فرارفت آن در زمان بارش بررود خانه دالکی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. جهت بررسی این بارش ابتدا نقشه‌های روزانه سطح زمین و ترازهای 700 و 500 هکتوپاسکال از 48 ساعت قبل از وقوع بارش استخراج ومورد بررسی وتحلیل قرار گرفت ونتایج زیر حاصل گردید:بر روی نقشه سطح زمین، نقش اصلی و کنترل کننده باپر فشار سیبری،پر فشار دینامیکی آزور و حالت ادغام شده دو سیستم کم فشار سودان و مدیترانه می‌باشد. در ترازهای بالاتر نیز سیستم‌های اصلی کنترل کننده، مرکز ارتفاع زیاد آزور در پشت سیستم و مرکز ارتفاع زیاد عربستان در جلو سیستم و تراف عمیق شمال آفریقا می‌باشد.نتایج این مطالعه می‌تواند درپیش بینی بارش‌های سنگین و سیل زا وهمچنین پیش آگاهی برای برنامه ریزی و مدیریت بهترمنابع آب منطقه به کار برده شود. https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_18489_0d7999fdc705d88455576cb7d91d3d85.pdf

دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 22 1 2011 05 22 Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation changes of Shiraz during the Period of 1951-2005 تحلیل تغییرات سریهای دما و بارش شیراز طی دوره 2005-1951 137 152 18490 FA اشرف اسدی دانشجوی دکتری اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران علی حیدری استادیار جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج، ایران Journal Article 2016 06 14   Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation changes of Shiraz during the Period of 1951-2005     A. Asadi. ( * ),  PhD student of climatology, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran   email: ashraf_asadi@yahoo.com     A. Heydari.   Assistant Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Yasuj, Yasuj, Iran  Received: 6 July 2009 / Accepted: 17 August 2010, 39-42 P     Extended Abstract   1- Introduction   Climate change nowadays is considered as one of squabbles scientific and even political –social prevalent, indeed isn’t new squabble. On basis climatic models forecast anticipated that increased precipitation measure in world, but not possible sound precipitation trend forecast in different regions. Likely monthly precipitation increased in latitudes high however whatever occurred in mid and tropical latitude depend to special climatic models and produce and dispersion matter pollution viewpoints.     2- Methodology   The moving mean, time series regression, correlation coefficient Pearson, β test, Mann-kendall, s test were used to analyze temperature and precipitation changes of Shiraz station.According to the normal distribution of temperature, linear regression coud use for analysis of temperature trend. But to determin existence or nonexistence trend and its direction must be use β test. Since some climatic series like precipitation doesn’t subordinate normal distribution, thus for trend analysis could use Mann-Kendall test .This test examined hypothesizes in below:   H0: Observations without increasing and decreasing trends.   H1: Steady trend in time length.   In this paper for temperature studying, have been used linear regression test and β test and for precipitation analyzing were applied linear regression test and Mann-Kendall test.       3- Discussion   Changes temperature analyses do annually and seasonally.   In Shiraz synoptic station is mean annually temperature 17.75o centigrade in term of 1951-2005.With linear regression test it trend has increase with correlation coefficient 0.64 and rate 1.9oC in term of discussion. β test in confidence level 95% do in this station and show that increased temperature in this term. Ho confirm in this parameter. Changes analysis mean seasonally temperature show increasing trend in 4 season .But temperature increasing is obviously in spring and summer.   For exact survey, variation trend of precipitation using fitting polynomial regression line to 5 year moving mean utilized time was categorized to two periods. The first period be 1951 until 1982 and second period be from 1983 until 2005.The first period has show decreasing trend and second period shown increasing trend .In the first period rankly correlation level of time-precipitation (Mann-Kendall test) is -0.048. Therefore confirm H1 and series time data has show decreasing trend. In second period rankly correlation level of time-precipitation (Mann-Kendall test) is +0.162. Therefore confirm H1 and series time data has show increasing trend .   In the winter rankly correlation level of time-precipitation (Mann-Kendall test) is +0.094. Therefore confirm H1 and series time data has show increasing trend. In spring rankly is correlation -0.147 and series time data has decreasing trend. Summer has rankly correlation +0.012 and series time data has increasing trend. In autumn season is rankly correlation +0.001 and series time data has low increasing trend.     4- Conclusion   In this paper, changes of rate and trend of temperature and precipitation was studied with utilized time series regression, Z. Score, moving mean, independent and homogeneity tests, Beta test and Mann-Kendall ,s test techniques of shiraz during 55 year periods between 1951 to 2005. The results were obtained the temperature during this period shows an increasing trend and it observed in four seasons. The annual precipitation average shown a decrease trend and the seasonal precipitation average observed in all season exception winter.   In this station, precipitation and temperature annual increasing trend followed a inverse trend, it means is that with incrasing temperature precipitation was decreasing. 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Journal of hydrology. 279: 144-1 5 0 .        در مطالعه حاضر، همبستگی، میزان و روند تغییرات عناصر دما و بارش ایستگاه شیراز طی دوره آماری 2005- 1951 در مقاطع سالانه و فصلی با استفاده از روشهای رگرسیون سری‌های زمانی، شاخص استاندارد زی اسکور و روش میانگینهای متحرک، آزمونهای استقلال و همگنی، بتا( β ) و مان ـ کندال بررسی شده است. بررسی عنصر دما نشان می‌دهد که متوسط دمای سالانه دارای روند افزایشی به میزان9/1 درجه سانتیگراد در طی دوره مورد مطالعه است و این افزایش تقریباً در هر چهار فصل نیز قابل مشاهده است، اما متوسط بارش سالانه بر عکس متوسط دمای سالانه در کل یک روند کاهشی از خود نشان می‌دهد و از نظر فصول سال نیز این روند کاهشی به غیر از فصل زمستان در سایر فصول مشاهده می‌شود. با توجه به ضریب همبستگی رتبه‌ای مان ـ کندال روند مشخصی در آماره بارش سالانه ایستگاه همدید شیراز یافت نشد.    https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_18490_c01f82f58c3371e66094aa7c7202e111.pdf