University of IsfahanGeography and Environmental Planning2008-536226420160220The assessment of social capital components in the Ameri neighborhoodof Ahvaz cityThe assessment of social capital components in the Ameri neighborhoodof Ahvaz city12020775FAMasoudSafaie Pourshahid chamran universityHadiAlizadehshahid chamran universitySafiyehDamanbaghshahid chamran universityJournal Article20161126The main objective ofthisstudy is to assessthe status ofsocial capital components in theAhwazneighborhoodof Ameri, withtwosubs - goals of identifying ameasure of realization and measure of prioritytothese components by theviewpoint of experts and neighborhoodresidents hasbeen carried.Components proposed for measuring and evaluating social capital condition in the Ameri neighborhood in the three dimensions of within groups(Bonding social capital), inter-group(Bridging social capital) and cross-group(Linking social capital) are set.In this regard, research methodology is"descriptive – analytic", that data collected based on survey method and the form of questionnaire.So firstly, from the opinions of 15 experts for determinetorealization measure the components of social capital in the Ameri neighborhoodand then to form of randomly based on neighborhood population, from opinions of 322 neighborhood residents to determine social capital components priority measure in the Amery neighborhood was used. For data analysis to adaptive of research purposes, to model of fuzzy AHP (FAHP) for evaluatingof experts opinions and T-test examination for the evaluation of views of neighborhood residents in the form of SPSS software was used.The results show that bonding social capital indicator, adapting to the view of experts to measure of 0.474 fuzzy weighted other than dimensions the neighborhood is better achieved.assessment components of social capital priority from the view of neighborhoods citizens show thatbinding social capital between the eigenvalues ââobtained and the bottom out of -0.63the T-test examination have greater priority for payment is to improve condition the Ameri neighborhood.The main objective ofthisstudy is to assessthe status ofsocial capital components in theAhwazneighborhoodof Ameri, withtwosubs - goals of identifying ameasure of realization and measure of prioritytothese components by theviewpoint of experts and neighborhoodresidents hasbeen carried.Components proposed for measuring and evaluating social capital condition in the Ameri neighborhood in the three dimensions of within groups(Bonding social capital), inter-group(Bridging social capital) and cross-group(Linking social capital) are set.In this regard, research methodology is"descriptive – analytic", that data collected based on survey method and the form of questionnaire.So firstly, from the opinions of 15 experts for determinetorealization measure the components of social capital in the Ameri neighborhoodand then to form of randomly based on neighborhood population, from opinions of 322 neighborhood residents to determine social capital components priority measure in the Amery neighborhood was used. For data analysis to adaptive of research purposes, to model of fuzzy AHP (FAHP) for evaluatingof experts opinions and T-test examination for the evaluation of views of neighborhood residents in the form of SPSS software was used.The results show that bonding social capital indicator, adapting to the view of experts to measure of 0.474 fuzzy weighted other than dimensions the neighborhood is better achieved.assessment components of social capital priority from the view of neighborhoods citizens show thatbinding social capital between the eigenvalues ââobtained and the bottom out of -0.63the T-test examination have greater priority for payment is to improve condition the Ameri neighborhood.https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_20775_f21e9f9c7c50de36fcebc6e0084ac668.pdfUniversity of IsfahanGeography and Environmental Planning2008-536226420160220The Synoptic and three-dimensional Survey of Cyclone Activity over Iran in 1372The Synoptic and three-dimensional Survey of Cyclone Activity over Iran in 1372214020776FASaeidMovahediuniversity of isfahan, IranMohammadBaratiuniversity of isfahan, IranJournal Article20161126n this study investigated the synoptic and 3-d dimensional cyclone and cyclogenesis centers in different levels at theatmosphere in 1372. Improvement forecast of climatic systems for preventing of damages and disease cause of them and or better planning for use of precipitation, necessities for the identifying cyclone centers and which cyclones that included our country.The cyclones identified and detected through the designed algorithms. Case study area included -30 western degree, 80 eastern degrees and 0 to 80 northern degrees. For this purpose used of reanalyzed NCEP/NCAR data, 6-hour intervals(00, 06, 12, 18z) and 2.5*2.5 degrees of spatial resolution for detection of cyclones that affected in the middle east and Iran regions. Grads software was used for the spatial detection of cyclones. Matlab, Surfer and Excel software was used for the analysis and map designing. Results show that in 500 and 1000 hpa levels had more cyclones than 925, 850, 700 and 600 hpa levels. Autumn season had the highest cyclone except 500 hpa level through all level studied. Summerseason had the lowest cyclone through all levels was studied. Also, main cyclogenesis centers were located in the Gulf of Genoa , Southern Italy, and Spanish-Portugal.n this study investigated the synoptic and 3-d dimensional cyclone and cyclogenesis centers in different levels at theatmosphere in 1372. Improvement forecast of climatic systems for preventing of damages and disease cause of them and or better planning for use of precipitation, necessities for the identifying cyclone centers and which cyclones that included our country.The cyclones identified and detected through the designed algorithms. Case study area included -30 western degree, 80 eastern degrees and 0 to 80 northern degrees. For this purpose used of reanalyzed NCEP/NCAR data, 6-hour intervals(00, 06, 12, 18z) and 2.5*2.5 degrees of spatial resolution for detection of cyclones that affected in the middle east and Iran regions. Grads software was used for the spatial detection of cyclones. Matlab, Surfer and Excel software was used for the analysis and map designing. Results show that in 500 and 1000 hpa levels had more cyclones than 925, 850, 700 and 600 hpa levels. Autumn season had the highest cyclone except 500 hpa level through all level studied. Summerseason had the lowest cyclone through all levels was studied. Also, main cyclogenesis centers were located in the Gulf of Genoa , Southern Italy, and Spanish-Portugal.https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_20776_44cdd247bfbbee358cff1f525e128f14.pdfUniversity of IsfahanGeography and Environmental Planning2008-536226420160220An investigation on the role of effective factors in the formation of sinkholes on the karstic formation with using multivariate linear regression model, GIS, and SPSSAn investigation on the role of effective factors in the formation of sinkholes on the karstic formation with using multivariate linear regression model, GIS, and SPSS416220777FAMousaAbediniUniversity of Mohaghegh ArdabiliMasumeKamraniUniversity of Mohaghegh ArdabiliMohammadrezaEghbalKarazmi university of TehranJournal Article20161126karstic zones in dealing with diversity and complexity factor and their mechanisms in related to each otherØ with respect to their roles in the evolution and karstification sensitivity are avery different reaction. Therefore today’s led to Special pay attention in the initial studies and preparing karstification maps on the environmental planning to theresearcher. The study zone with karst formations is the part of the folded limestone formations and tectonic crushed zones and that is very prone to formation of various karstic landforms. The main purpose of study factors in the development of karst sinkhole and Zoning emphasizing talent development and sensitive karst area Inscription based on the effects of these factors. Therefore, all data layers were processed using Arc GIS software and the relationships between variables and their effect on the dependent variable using multivariate linear regression analysis was conducted in SPSS. The results of the regression equation and multivariate linear regression and influence of regression coefficients on the data matrix variables due to thePotential occurrence of sinkholes indicated the spectral coefficients are obtained numerically positive and negative. Positive numbers indicate the suitable conditions for karst development and negative indicated unsuitable conditions for the development of karst. The numerical range of the spectrum, the three-class quality, including low talent, talent, and more talent into the medium. Interpretation of the coefficients and the results of this study showed that lithology is the most important roles in karst development and then the layers faults, rainfall, elevation, temperature, dip and dip direction, the next levels are important.karstic zones in dealing with diversity and complexity factor and their mechanisms in related to each otherØ with respect to their roles in the evolution and karstification sensitivity are avery different reaction. Therefore today’s led to Special pay attention in the initial studies and preparing karstification maps on the environmental planning to theresearcher. The study zone with karst formations is the part of the folded limestone formations and tectonic crushed zones and that is very prone to formation of various karstic landforms. The main purpose of study factors in the development of karst sinkhole and Zoning emphasizing talent development and sensitive karst area Inscription based on the effects of these factors. Therefore, all data layers were processed using Arc GIS software and the relationships between variables and their effect on the dependent variable using multivariate linear regression analysis was conducted in SPSS. The results of the regression equation and multivariate linear regression and influence of regression coefficients on the data matrix variables due to thePotential occurrence of sinkholes indicated the spectral coefficients are obtained numerically positive and negative. Positive numbers indicate the suitable conditions for karst development and negative indicated unsuitable conditions for the development of karst. The numerical range of the spectrum, the three-class quality, including low talent, talent, and more talent into the medium. Interpretation of the coefficients and the results of this study showed that lithology is the most important roles in karst development and then the layers faults, rainfall, elevation, temperature, dip and dip direction, the next levels are important.https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_20777_2abe891dc765f30eb34cee7af96c0015.pdfUniversity of IsfahanGeography and Environmental Planning2008-536226420160220Assessment and zonation of downfall hazard using by VIKOR model (cause study: Aqlaqhan Chay basin) Extended AbstractAssessment and zonation of downfall hazard using by VIKOR model (cause study: Aqlaqhan Chay basin) Extended Abstract638020778FAAghilMadadiuniversity of Mohaghegh ArdabiliAtaGhffariuniversity of Mohaghegh ArdabiliElnazPirooziuniversity of Mohaghegh ArdabiliJournal Article20161126 1- Introduction :
Slope instability and falls are main risks in mountainous areas . Rock falls refers to abrupt or instantaneous movements of loosend blocks or complexes of solid rocks detached from steep rock walls (Chau et al 2004, 385). Rock falls occur mainly on the steep slopes above the vertical walls of the cliff and rocky reef areas without vegetation (Nader sefat 2006, 63). Due to the risk of these movements to human communities, one has to control them. In order to control mass movements, different aspects of the movements should be studied in detail.
The Aghlaghan chay catchment area with 166 square kilometer area, bounded by lat 38, 10-38, 44N and long 47, 46-48 E. this catchment area is located in northwestern of Iran and southwesternslope of Sabalan Mountain. Aqlaqhan Chay catchment by having mountain face and the geological, lithologic and climate conditions is sustainable for the production of falling movements. These phenomena every year causing damage to lives and property in residential areas, road destruction and widespread creation and filling of reservoir sediment and riverbed sediment is Yamchi dam. Therefore, zonation of catchment area in view of sensibility to Rock fall is very necessary . 1- Introduction :
Slope instability and falls are main risks in mountainous areas . Rock falls refers to abrupt or instantaneous movements of loosend blocks or complexes of solid rocks detached from steep rock walls (Chau et al 2004, 385). Rock falls occur mainly on the steep slopes above the vertical walls of the cliff and rocky reef areas without vegetation (Nader sefat 2006, 63). Due to the risk of these movements to human communities, one has to control them. In order to control mass movements, different aspects of the movements should be studied in detail.
The Aghlaghan chay catchment area with 166 square kilometer area, bounded by lat 38, 10-38, 44N and long 47, 46-48 E. this catchment area is located in northwestern of Iran and southwesternslope of Sabalan Mountain. Aqlaqhan Chay catchment by having mountain face and the geological, lithologic and climate conditions is sustainable for the production of falling movements. These phenomena every year causing damage to lives and property in residential areas, road destruction and widespread creation and filling of reservoir sediment and riverbed sediment is Yamchi dam. Therefore, zonation of catchment area in view of sensibility to Rock fall is very necessary .https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_20778_6d07d006d986b1787d80c5484fc3d84f.pdfUniversity of IsfahanGeography and Environmental Planning2008-536226420160220Analysis of Moisture Flux Convergence and moisture sources for precipitation in the southern coasts of Caspian SeaAnalysis of Moisture Flux Convergence and moisture sources for precipitation in the southern coasts of Caspian Sea819620779FAHamidNouriMalayer UniversityAlirezaIldoromiMalayer UniversityJournal Article20161126Extended Abstract 1- Introduction Moisture flux convergence (MFC) is some moisture in and moisture convergence terms. The function is calculated on the basis special humidity and wind vectors and it is used to forecast the thunderstorms and heavy precipitations. It is a term theatmosphere that moves from side to another side. It combines from advection humidity in the conservation of water vapor equation and was first calculated in the 1950s and 1960s as a vertically integrated quantity to predict rainfall associated with synoptic-scale systems. MFC was eventually suggested for use in forecasting convective initiation in the midlatitudes in 1970, but practical MFC usage quickly evolved to include only surface data, owing to the higher spatial and temporal resolution of surface observations. Since then, surface MFC has been widely applied as a short-term (0–3 h) prognostic quantity for forecasting convective initiation, with an emphasis on determining the favorable spatial locations for such development. This research investigates moisture flux convergence in convective, non-convective, super-heavy and heavy precipitation events in the southern coasts of Caspian Sea. It studies therole of each humidity resources to occur precipitation in different regions in the north of Iran. 2- Methodology: On the basis of daily precipitations in seven stations during 1961 to 2008, with regard to 25 and 50 percent probability, precipitation events are divided into heavy and super heavy precipitations. The events are also grouped into convective and non-convective precipitations based on the clouds synoptic codes. The moisture sources are distinguished using moisture flux convergence and humidity advection in different level pressures from 1000 to 500 hpa over the past 2 days. Moisture sources are distinguished for precipitations in the north of Iran. 3– Discussion Figure1 shows that there is the most frequency of moisture flux convergence in the west area in compare with the east and mountainous regions. There are the maximum functions at 06:00 GMT for different precipitation regions. Figure 2 indicates that the functions are in the convective group more than thenon-convective group and super-heavy than heavy precipitation events. There are the maximum functions at 06:00 GMT for different precipitation groups. Fig.1. Moisture flux convergence mean in different precipitation regions in 1000hpa level(gr/kgs) 18 12 06 00 Observational times Precipitation regions 10 12 16 12 west region, super heavy group 5 8 12 9 West region, heavy group 8 10 14 11 Mountainous region, super heavy group 4 8 12 6 Mountainous region, heavy group 6 8 8 6 East region, super heavy group 4 8 8 6 East region, heavy group Fig.2. Moisture flux convergence mean in different precipitation groups in 1000hpa level(gr/kgs) 18 12 06 00 Observational times Precipitation groups 6 15 18 12 Convective and super heavy precipitation 6 9 12 8 Nonconvective and super heavy precipitation 4 8 12 7 Convective and heavy precipitation 2 6 11 5 Nonconvective superheavy precipitation 4– Conclusion The difference between heavy and super-heavy precipitation in terms of moisture flux convergence is more in convective than non-convective events. The frequency of moisture sources is more in super-heavy precipitation than heavy precipitation. However, the Caspian Sea is the first supplier moisture sources for the precipitation in the north of Iran, the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea are the second supplier sources respectively in super-heavy and heavy precipitation.
Extended Abstract 1- Introduction Moisture flux convergence (MFC) is some moisture in and moisture convergence terms. The function is calculated on the basis special humidity and wind vectors and it is used to forecast the thunderstorms and heavy precipitations. It is a term theatmosphere that moves from side to another side. It combines from advection humidity in the conservation of water vapor equation and was first calculated in the 1950s and 1960s as a vertically integrated quantity to predict rainfall associated with synoptic-scale systems. MFC was eventually suggested for use in forecasting convective initiation in the midlatitudes in 1970, but practical MFC usage quickly evolved to include only surface data, owing to the higher spatial and temporal resolution of surface observations. Since then, surface MFC has been widely applied as a short-term (0–3 h) prognostic quantity for forecasting convective initiation, with an emphasis on determining the favorable spatial locations for such development. This research investigates moisture flux convergence in convective, non-convective, super-heavy and heavy precipitation events in the southern coasts of Caspian Sea. It studies therole of each humidity resources to occur precipitation in different regions in the north of Iran. 2- Methodology: On the basis of daily precipitations in seven stations during 1961 to 2008, with regard to 25 and 50 percent probability, precipitation events are divided into heavy and super heavy precipitations. The events are also grouped into convective and non-convective precipitations based on the clouds synoptic codes. The moisture sources are distinguished using moisture flux convergence and humidity advection in different level pressures from 1000 to 500 hpa over the past 2 days. Moisture sources are distinguished for precipitations in the north of Iran. 3– Discussion Figure1 shows that there is the most frequency of moisture flux convergence in the west area in compare with the east and mountainous regions. There are the maximum functions at 06:00 GMT for different precipitation regions. Figure 2 indicates that the functions are in the convective group more than thenon-convective group and super-heavy than heavy precipitation events. There are the maximum functions at 06:00 GMT for different precipitation groups. Fig.1. Moisture flux convergence mean in different precipitation regions in 1000hpa level(gr/kgs) 18 12 06 00 Observational times Precipitation regions 10 12 16 12 west region, super heavy group 5 8 12 9 West region, heavy group 8 10 14 11 Mountainous region, super heavy group 4 8 12 6 Mountainous region, heavy group 6 8 8 6 East region, super heavy group 4 8 8 6 East region, heavy group Fig.2. Moisture flux convergence mean in different precipitation groups in 1000hpa level(gr/kgs) 18 12 06 00 Observational times Precipitation groups 6 15 18 12 Convective and super heavy precipitation 6 9 12 8 Nonconvective and super heavy precipitation 4 8 12 7 Convective and heavy precipitation 2 6 11 5 Nonconvective superheavy precipitation 4– Conclusion The difference between heavy and super-heavy precipitation in terms of moisture flux convergence is more in convective than non-convective events. The frequency of moisture sources is more in super-heavy precipitation than heavy precipitation. However, the Caspian Sea is the first supplier moisture sources for the precipitation in the north of Iran, the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea are the second supplier sources respectively in super-heavy and heavy precipitation.
https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_20779_307cbc8f67013362997d3ba58c01bbb4.pdfUniversity of IsfahanGeography and Environmental Planning2008-536226420160220Modeling urban development using statistical preprocessing techniques and Artificial Neural Network: The case of Tehran metropolisModeling urban development using statistical preprocessing techniques and Artificial Neural Network: The case of Tehran metropolis9711820780FAPeymanHeydarianUniversity of Shahid ChamranKazemRangzanUniversity of Shahid ChamranSaeedMalekiUniversity of Shahid ChamranAyobTaghi ZadehUniversity of Shahid ChamranJournal Article201611261-Introduction:
In late 2011, the world’s population surpassed the 7 billion and it is currently growing by an additional 78 million persons every year. Most of the future population growth will occur in developing countries, particularly in less developed countries (United Nations, 2011: 7). This increasing population pressure is leading to unregulated growth (Maithani, 2009: 364), Sprawl, horizontal spread of urban areas, rapid changes in land use and increasing trend of environmental degradation (Dewan and Yamaguchi, 2009: 390). In order to alleviate ,adverse effects of urbanization on the environment and maintain optimal ecosystem function (Fang et al., 2005: 295), spatial and temporal patterns of land use and land cover changes (LULC), and subsequently the factors affecting these changes(Serra et al., 2008: 190), are important in developing rational economic, social and environmental policies (Long et al., 2007: 351 Dewan and Yamaguchi, 2009: 390). Also, the advent of satellite images and geospatial technologies has paved new dimension for assessing and monitoring land use/ cover changes (Mussie et al., 2011: 2149). Encountered to these severe negative impacts, there is an urgent need for urban planners to develop predictive models of urbanization. These models not only provide an understanding of the urban growth process but also provide realizations of the numerous potential growth scenarios taken by urban area in future (Maithani, 2010: 36). Despite enormous researchers on urbanization, modeling using intelligent methods is still obscure issues such as the ordering importance and number of input data in this field is required. Thus, due to lack of a systematic method to find the best combination of input parameters, we have on the way we have introduced amethod to fill this gap. The present study was aimed to model development of metropolitan Tehran using Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network model and Ordinary Least Squares regression (OLS) for preprocessing the input parameters to the model. 2- Methodology To satisfy end of the present study, at first, effective criteria in the urbanization process were collected from associated organizations, analyze, and prepared. Land use map for the study period (2006-1995) was extracted from the Landsat images and was improved using AutoCAD data and available map. Then, accuracy assessment of maps and change detection were performed and based on these changes, in order to avoid the trial and error method for choosing the best combination of input parameters to the model, using OLS pre-processing was performed according to criteria. Then, given to output method of OLS, the independent variables were chosen as input to the model. Finally, using Multi-layer Perceptron algorithm of Artificial Neural Network, transition potential modeling for each criterion undertaken, and the Markov chain method the land use map for the year 2017 was predicted. 3- Discussion In the present study, Ordinary Least Squares regression (OLS) and Multi-layer Perceptron algorithm of Neural Network were used to identify and improve our understanding of the social-economic, physical and land use forces that affecting urbanization, as well as finding the unequal impact of these factors and the most likely location for future urban development of metropolitan Tehran. Due to the large number and variety of factors affecting in the process and research results it can be notedthat RS and GIS technology allow us to generate and analyze large amounts of spatial and spatial data and output with a high degree of accuracy in the shortesttime. The advantage of this study compared to previous studies, is to use OLS method on input independent variables to the preprocessed model. Previous studies did not refer to preprocessing on input variables to the model, and if so, trial and error method is used. Among them, research conducted by Tayebi et al and Kamiab et al (1390 year) on predicted urbanization of Gorgan city and that Karam and Yaghob Nezhade Asl (1392 year) on thephysical development of Karaj city are substantial. Also, surveys field and remotely sensed results showed that the predictions compared to previous studies are closer to the ground realities and follows the available development trend. 4- Conclusion Results of the present study show that most urbanization trends of metropolitan Tehran for theprospect of the year 2017 will be concentrated in the eastern and western parts. These results indicate the validity of the model, fully consistent with the facts and can be implemented as a model in planning for the future prospects of metropolitan Tehran. However, to upgrade and increase the reliability of the model more efficiently, future studies can be used in a promising manner such as property, land prices and commercial centers, that due to restrictions available are not used here, and the urbanization process of metropolitan Tehran can be very influential. Keywords: modeling urban development, statistic preprocessing, least squares regression, neural network, RS, GIS. -United Nations, (2011), Department of Economic and Social Affairs - Population Division, World population prospects. -Maithani, S, (2009), A Neural Network based Urban Growth Model of an Indian City, J. Indian Soc. Remote Sensing, 37, 363–376. -Dewan, A.M, Yamaguchi, Y, (2009), Land use and land cover change in Greater Dhaka, Bangladesh: Using remote sensing to promote sustainable urbanization, Applied Geography, 29, 390–401. -Fang, Sh, Gertner, G.Z, Sun, Zh, and Anderson, A.A, (2005), The impact of interactions in thespatial simulation of the dynamics of urban sprawl, Landscape and Urban Planning, 73, 294–306. -Serra, P, Pons, X, Saur, D, (2008), Land-cover and land-use change in a Mediterranean landscape: A spatial analysis of driving forces integrating biophysical and human factors, Applied Geography, 28, 189–209. -Long, H, Tang, G, Li, X, and Heilig, G.K, (2007), Socio-economic driving forces of land-use change in Kunshan, the Yangtze River Delta economic area of China, Journal of Environmental Management, 83, 351–364. -Maithani, S, (2010), Application of Cellular Automata and GIS Techniques in Urban Growth Modelling: A New Perspective, Institute of Town Planners, India Journal, 7, 36 – 49. -Mussie, G, Tewolde, Cabral, P, (2011),Urban Sprawl Analysis and Modeling in Asmara, Eritrea, Remote Sensing, 3, 2148-2165.1-Introduction:
In late 2011, the world’s population surpassed the 7 billion and it is currently growing by an additional 78 million persons every year. Most of the future population growth will occur in developing countries, particularly in less developed countries (United Nations, 2011: 7). This increasing population pressure is leading to unregulated growth (Maithani, 2009: 364), Sprawl, horizontal spread of urban areas, rapid changes in land use and increasing trend of environmental degradation (Dewan and Yamaguchi, 2009: 390). In order to alleviate ,adverse effects of urbanization on the environment and maintain optimal ecosystem function (Fang et al., 2005: 295), spatial and temporal patterns of land use and land cover changes (LULC), and subsequently the factors affecting these changes(Serra et al., 2008: 190), are important in developing rational economic, social and environmental policies (Long et al., 2007: 351 Dewan and Yamaguchi, 2009: 390). Also, the advent of satellite images and geospatial technologies has paved new dimension for assessing and monitoring land use/ cover changes (Mussie et al., 2011: 2149). Encountered to these severe negative impacts, there is an urgent need for urban planners to develop predictive models of urbanization. These models not only provide an understanding of the urban growth process but also provide realizations of the numerous potential growth scenarios taken by urban area in future (Maithani, 2010: 36). Despite enormous researchers on urbanization, modeling using intelligent methods is still obscure issues such as the ordering importance and number of input data in this field is required. Thus, due to lack of a systematic method to find the best combination of input parameters, we have on the way we have introduced amethod to fill this gap. The present study was aimed to model development of metropolitan Tehran using Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network model and Ordinary Least Squares regression (OLS) for preprocessing the input parameters to the model. 2- Methodology To satisfy end of the present study, at first, effective criteria in the urbanization process were collected from associated organizations, analyze, and prepared. Land use map for the study period (2006-1995) was extracted from the Landsat images and was improved using AutoCAD data and available map. Then, accuracy assessment of maps and change detection were performed and based on these changes, in order to avoid the trial and error method for choosing the best combination of input parameters to the model, using OLS pre-processing was performed according to criteria. Then, given to output method of OLS, the independent variables were chosen as input to the model. Finally, using Multi-layer Perceptron algorithm of Artificial Neural Network, transition potential modeling for each criterion undertaken, and the Markov chain method the land use map for the year 2017 was predicted. 3- Discussion In the present study, Ordinary Least Squares regression (OLS) and Multi-layer Perceptron algorithm of Neural Network were used to identify and improve our understanding of the social-economic, physical and land use forces that affecting urbanization, as well as finding the unequal impact of these factors and the most likely location for future urban development of metropolitan Tehran. Due to the large number and variety of factors affecting in the process and research results it can be notedthat RS and GIS technology allow us to generate and analyze large amounts of spatial and spatial data and output with a high degree of accuracy in the shortesttime. The advantage of this study compared to previous studies, is to use OLS method on input independent variables to the preprocessed model. Previous studies did not refer to preprocessing on input variables to the model, and if so, trial and error method is used. Among them, research conducted by Tayebi et al and Kamiab et al (1390 year) on predicted urbanization of Gorgan city and that Karam and Yaghob Nezhade Asl (1392 year) on thephysical development of Karaj city are substantial. Also, surveys field and remotely sensed results showed that the predictions compared to previous studies are closer to the ground realities and follows the available development trend. 4- Conclusion Results of the present study show that most urbanization trends of metropolitan Tehran for theprospect of the year 2017 will be concentrated in the eastern and western parts. These results indicate the validity of the model, fully consistent with the facts and can be implemented as a model in planning for the future prospects of metropolitan Tehran. However, to upgrade and increase the reliability of the model more efficiently, future studies can be used in a promising manner such as property, land prices and commercial centers, that due to restrictions available are not used here, and the urbanization process of metropolitan Tehran can be very influential. Keywords: modeling urban development, statistic preprocessing, least squares regression, neural network, RS, GIS. -United Nations, (2011), Department of Economic and Social Affairs - Population Division, World population prospects. -Maithani, S, (2009), A Neural Network based Urban Growth Model of an Indian City, J. Indian Soc. Remote Sensing, 37, 363–376. -Dewan, A.M, Yamaguchi, Y, (2009), Land use and land cover change in Greater Dhaka, Bangladesh: Using remote sensing to promote sustainable urbanization, Applied Geography, 29, 390–401. -Fang, Sh, Gertner, G.Z, Sun, Zh, and Anderson, A.A, (2005), The impact of interactions in thespatial simulation of the dynamics of urban sprawl, Landscape and Urban Planning, 73, 294–306. -Serra, P, Pons, X, Saur, D, (2008), Land-cover and land-use change in a Mediterranean landscape: A spatial analysis of driving forces integrating biophysical and human factors, Applied Geography, 28, 189–209. -Long, H, Tang, G, Li, X, and Heilig, G.K, (2007), Socio-economic driving forces of land-use change in Kunshan, the Yangtze River Delta economic area of China, Journal of Environmental Management, 83, 351–364. -Maithani, S, (2010), Application of Cellular Automata and GIS Techniques in Urban Growth Modelling: A New Perspective, Institute of Town Planners, India Journal, 7, 36 – 49. -Mussie, G, Tewolde, Cabral, P, (2011),Urban Sprawl Analysis and Modeling in Asmara, Eritrea, Remote Sensing, 3, 2148-2165.https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_20780_b4994904be9651215469a7f5dd8eef8b.pdfUniversity of IsfahanGeography and Environmental Planning2008-536226420160220Contribution of Coastal Plains of Southern Iran in Climatic Dust GenerationContribution of Coastal Plains of Southern Iran in Climatic Dust Generation11913420781FAAfsanehBaranipouruniversity of isfahanAmirMahmodzadehuniversity of isfahanJournal Article20161126The occurrence of dust phenomenon is connected to some new serious climatic conditions and an increase in its frequency in some of the cities in southern coastal regions of Iran like Khuzestan and Bushehr provinces have generated serious problems in transportation, social health and promotion of certain diseases etc. Up to now, four main sources of dust origin have been the concern. Iraq, Syria, Arabia and interior zoneØ, although as a whole, the cause of such occurrences’ severity is related to climatic changes, fundamental changes in the shallow marshes and the recent droughts. The prevailing addressed issue is: the change in frequency and differences in the transformed particle nature indicate facts other than what is known. By considering the analysis on frequency and magnitude of dusty days in Iran and the morphoscopy and granulometry procedures, the samples taken from Mahshahr, Genaveh, Ahwaz and Behbahan cities are analyzed to evaluate the source and determine the share of each source and the causation of such phenomenon in the above mentioned coastal regions. - More than 58% of the dusty days in the study zone have coastal sources and are not inclined on the foreign dust particle generating centers. - The civil operations of coastal developments in specific and most of all coastal bay-road constructions are the main factors contributing to dust particles’ distribution in these two coastal provinces. - Stoppage of lunar and solar absorptions and prevention of water coverage(tide) on coastal lands are the main contributors in providing the grounds to produce dust particles in these regions. Key Words: ebb and Flow, dust particle, climatic changes, coastal connecting routesThe occurrence of dust phenomenon is connected to some new serious climatic conditions and an increase in its frequency in some of the cities in southern coastal regions of Iran like Khuzestan and Bushehr provinces have generated serious problems in transportation, social health and promotion of certain diseases etc. Up to now, four main sources of dust origin have been the concern. Iraq, Syria, Arabia and interior zoneØ, although as a whole, the cause of such occurrences’ severity is related to climatic changes, fundamental changes in the shallow marshes and the recent droughts. The prevailing addressed issue is: the change in frequency and differences in the transformed particle nature indicate facts other than what is known. By considering the analysis on frequency and magnitude of dusty days in Iran and the morphoscopy and granulometry procedures, the samples taken from Mahshahr, Genaveh, Ahwaz and Behbahan cities are analyzed to evaluate the source and determine the share of each source and the causation of such phenomenon in the above mentioned coastal regions. - More than 58% of the dusty days in the study zone have coastal sources and are not inclined on the foreign dust particle generating centers. - The civil operations of coastal developments in specific and most of all coastal bay-road constructions are the main factors contributing to dust particles’ distribution in these two coastal provinces. - Stoppage of lunar and solar absorptions and prevention of water coverage(tide) on coastal lands are the main contributors in providing the grounds to produce dust particles in these regions. Key Words: ebb and Flow, dust particle, climatic changes, coastal connecting routeshttps://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_20781_0821eb171ad0eda088d614b04edc4d12.pdfUniversity of IsfahanGeography and Environmental Planning2008-536226420160220Evaluation of the ecological potential for sprawl city using Fuzzy logic and AHP models (Case Study: Sarein)Evaluation of the ecological potential for sprawl city using Fuzzy logic and AHP models (Case Study: Sarein)13515020782FAVakilHeydari SarebanEbrahimBeheshti Javidmohaghegh universityMohamad HoseynFathimohaghegh universityJournal Article20161126Today, natural and rural areas on the periphery of cities are used as a space for urban development. Unthought of land where the quality of ground and loss of ecosystems is critical. Natural features of the surrounding residential areas, especially in the urban and physical planning is very important Because of a phenomenon resulting decision is the best choice. This research led to the development of physical development and Sarein using two models of fuzzy logic and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was evaluated. The fuzzy logic model for three different values of the gamma function (0.7, 0.8, 0.9) was used for the preparation of zoning maps and compare them with the existing design and development of existing residential areas, favorable and unfavorable, it was found that gamma 0.8 has the highest compliance & About 34 percent of the city In the land and 33 percent of those with a high proportion of In the land was the average suitability & Only 7% of the physical development of land which includes a small proportion of the North, North East, and North West region is The construction beside the river and the fault takes in steep areas. The results obtained from AHP model, particularly in the northern parts of North West and North East fuzzy model is very different And these lands as lands with moderate to high fitness has been introduced. The study was conducted in two models, the results of which were the model of fuzzy AHP model gives more accurate results toward.Today, natural and rural areas on the periphery of cities are used as a space for urban development. Unthought of land where the quality of ground and loss of ecosystems is critical. Natural features of the surrounding residential areas, especially in the urban and physical planning is very important Because of a phenomenon resulting decision is the best choice. This research led to the development of physical development and Sarein using two models of fuzzy logic and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was evaluated. The fuzzy logic model for three different values of the gamma function (0.7, 0.8, 0.9) was used for the preparation of zoning maps and compare them with the existing design and development of existing residential areas, favorable and unfavorable, it was found that gamma 0.8 has the highest compliance & About 34 percent of the city In the land and 33 percent of those with a high proportion of In the land was the average suitability & Only 7% of the physical development of land which includes a small proportion of the North, North East, and North West region is The construction beside the river and the fault takes in steep areas. The results obtained from AHP model, particularly in the northern parts of North West and North East fuzzy model is very different And these lands as lands with moderate to high fitness has been introduced. The study was conducted in two models, the results of which were the model of fuzzy AHP model gives more accurate results toward.https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_20782_0861e1bb594f78f668888f071f751798.pdfUniversity of IsfahanGeography and Environmental Planning2008-536226420160220Evaluating Land Surface Temperature related to the Land use Change Detection by Satellite Image (Case study: Taleghan Basin)Evaluating Land Surface Temperature related to the Land use Change Detection by Satellite Image (Case study: Taleghan Basin)15117020783FAElaheAkbariHakim Sabzevari UniversityMajidEbrahimiHakim Sabzevari UniversityBakhtiarFiezizadehUniversity of TabrizHamidNezhadsoleimaniMashhad Azad UniversityJournal Article20161126Abstract The land surface is always changing because of natural disasters especially human factors. This event is resulted from lack of attention to the time scale at the time of exploiting the environmental base resources. The land surface temperature (LST) is a very important factor in the global studies especially the temperature change and balance. In this research, the time-based spatial dynamics of LST was analyzed for Taleqhan Basin in Alborz province by means of the Landsat satellite data in relation to land cover/ land use in the region. The temperature degree obtained from LST is very Similar to the data obtained from meteorology. The SEBAL method used to obtain LST from the ETM+ data has shown that the difference between the real temperature degree in Taleghan meteorology or Climate forecast station and the estimated temperature is less than two degrees. Using the LST data obtained from the satellite images is advantageous from this point of view that it covers the area or the region completely. Furthermore, we can consider each pixel in the time-based map of LST as a Virtual meteorological station to analyze the data obtained about temperature. The research results show that LST is very sensitive to the plant coverage and the soil humidity. Hence the land uses with a high plant coverage distribution have a lower LST. Then this method can be used to detect the changes in LULC in a particular period of time. However, LST is related to human actions, too. It can be predicted that the LST will be increased in Taleghan in future regarding the effects of land use changes especially urbanization, deforestation and soil erosion in this region. The land uses with a low temperature has decreased while the land uses with a high temperature has increased. The research results can be important for the decision-makers especially the government organizations such as Agriculture Ministry, Water organization, Natural Resources Managements and etc. And finally the managers cooperation and a help by all groups of people are essential to stop worse changes and dissertation and also to prevent global warming.Abstract The land surface is always changing because of natural disasters especially human factors. This event is resulted from lack of attention to the time scale at the time of exploiting the environmental base resources. The land surface temperature (LST) is a very important factor in the global studies especially the temperature change and balance. In this research, the time-based spatial dynamics of LST was analyzed for Taleqhan Basin in Alborz province by means of the Landsat satellite data in relation to land cover/ land use in the region. The temperature degree obtained from LST is very Similar to the data obtained from meteorology. The SEBAL method used to obtain LST from the ETM+ data has shown that the difference between the real temperature degree in Taleghan meteorology or Climate forecast station and the estimated temperature is less than two degrees. Using the LST data obtained from the satellite images is advantageous from this point of view that it covers the area or the region completely. Furthermore, we can consider each pixel in the time-based map of LST as a Virtual meteorological station to analyze the data obtained about temperature. The research results show that LST is very sensitive to the plant coverage and the soil humidity. Hence the land uses with a high plant coverage distribution have a lower LST. Then this method can be used to detect the changes in LULC in a particular period of time. However, LST is related to human actions, too. It can be predicted that the LST will be increased in Taleghan in future regarding the effects of land use changes especially urbanization, deforestation and soil erosion in this region. The land uses with a low temperature has decreased while the land uses with a high temperature has increased. The research results can be important for the decision-makers especially the government organizations such as Agriculture Ministry, Water organization, Natural Resources Managements and etc. And finally the managers cooperation and a help by all groups of people are essential to stop worse changes and dissertation and also to prevent global warming.https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_20783_89a6851bef0216fb5a9774f9ddb786ac.pdfUniversity of IsfahanGeography and Environmental Planning2008-536226420160220Forest Wildfire Potential Zoning Using Multi-criteria Decision Making MethodsForest Wildfire Potential Zoning Using Multi-criteria Decision Making Methods17119820784FAMortezaAhmadi Ardakaniuniversity of tehranMohammadRajabiuniversity of tehranAliSarkargar Ardakaniuniversity of emam hosseinJournal Article20161126
Forests are one of the main natural resources on which human life depend. Nowadays, forests are going through the process of deforestation and many parts of them are destroyed for various reasons such as the global warming effect, carelessness of tourists, and "Slash and Burn". Increasing the water permeability rate and soil retention capacity, preventing soil erosion, reducing air pollution and being home to different plants and animals species, are examples of the main benefits of forests. Obviously, lack of forests results in several problems for human life. In order to preserve this main and valuable resource, one should first prevent the forest wildfire as much as possible, and second, if it is on fire one must stop its expansion and spread. Prevention of fire and controlling it when it happens, require recognition of the areas with thehigh potential for fire and taking necessary preventive measures for its spread. There are different studies on how to prepare risk zone maps. The final maps have been compiled through aweighted linear combination of the factors involved and good results have been achieved. In this research, high-risk zones are predicted using multi-criteria decision making along with spatial analysis. Analytic Hierarchy Process method (AHP) is a most widely weighting method and widely used because this is simple and break down thecomplexissue for simple and calculate weights using thepairwise comparison of criteria. In this paper, Analytic Hierarchy Process method (AHP) used to weighting criteria and two methods of fuzzy and OWA with linguistic quantifiers was used for overlay layers and result of those compare with quality sum method. The best QS is obtained through AHP_OWA for α4 where many percentages of fires occurred in the high or very high-risk zones, QS of this method shows ahigher value than gamma fuzzy method that shows better separation between risk zones and thus prepares risk zone maps with higher precision.
Forests are one of the main natural resources on which human life depend. Nowadays, forests are going through the process of deforestation and many parts of them are destroyed for various reasons such as the global warming effect, carelessness of tourists, and "Slash and Burn". Increasing the water permeability rate and soil retention capacity, preventing soil erosion, reducing air pollution and being home to different plants and animals species, are examples of the main benefits of forests. Obviously, lack of forests results in several problems for human life. In order to preserve this main and valuable resource, one should first prevent the forest wildfire as much as possible, and second, if it is on fire one must stop its expansion and spread. Prevention of fire and controlling it when it happens, require recognition of the areas with thehigh potential for fire and taking necessary preventive measures for its spread. There are different studies on how to prepare risk zone maps. The final maps have been compiled through aweighted linear combination of the factors involved and good results have been achieved. In this research, high-risk zones are predicted using multi-criteria decision making along with spatial analysis. Analytic Hierarchy Process method (AHP) is a most widely weighting method and widely used because this is simple and break down thecomplexissue for simple and calculate weights using thepairwise comparison of criteria. In this paper, Analytic Hierarchy Process method (AHP) used to weighting criteria and two methods of fuzzy and OWA with linguistic quantifiers was used for overlay layers and result of those compare with quality sum method. The best QS is obtained through AHP_OWA for α4 where many percentages of fires occurred in the high or very high-risk zones, QS of this method shows ahigher value than gamma fuzzy method that shows better separation between risk zones and thus prepares risk zone maps with higher precision.
https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_20784_3e5b75a91b3295e793dafbc2ddb65449.pdfUniversity of IsfahanGeography and Environmental Planning2008-536226420160220Land Suitability Evaluation for Rice Cultivation Using AHP-TOPSIS Methods Based on FAO Model in GIS Environment (Case study: Zanjan province)Land Suitability Evaluation for Rice Cultivation Using AHP-TOPSIS Methods Based on FAO Model in GIS Environment (Case study: Zanjan province)19921820785FAHosseinSoleymaniTarbiat modares universityMohammadTaleaiK.N.Toosi UniversityJournal Article20161126Land suitability evaluation for agricultural products is one of the important initial works for sustainable development, prevent land degradation and biological resources conservation for the future. With respect to theimportance of rice as a strategic product in the country, this paper presents a land suitability evaluation model based on FAO framework in Zanjan province using of Geographic Information System (GIS) and multi-criteria decision-making. In this study, 4 environmental parameters (water resources, climate, soil, topography) and 5 social-economic parameters (human and machine labor, distance from roads and markets, the number of cooperatives) were used for land suitability evaluation. AHP and TOPSIS method were used respectively for determining the relative weight of factors and their aggregation. Next, the resulted map was classified based on FAO framework and a class as constraints area. According to the results, from environmental perspective 114.36 km2 (0.51%), and after removing unsuitable environmental areas, from thetotal suitable area, from socio-economic perspective 73 km2 (0.33%) were identified as ahigh suitable class (S1). The overall accuracy of the first and final map compared to land use map 74.7% and 89.3% was obtained. According to our finding, most important parameters in land suitability evaluation for rice cultivation are water resources, climate, soil, machinery labor and topography and also the lack of water and soil salinity are the main obstacles to rice cultivation in the province.Land suitability evaluation for agricultural products is one of the important initial works for sustainable development, prevent land degradation and biological resources conservation for the future. With respect to theimportance of rice as a strategic product in the country, this paper presents a land suitability evaluation model based on FAO framework in Zanjan province using of Geographic Information System (GIS) and multi-criteria decision-making. In this study, 4 environmental parameters (water resources, climate, soil, topography) and 5 social-economic parameters (human and machine labor, distance from roads and markets, the number of cooperatives) were used for land suitability evaluation. AHP and TOPSIS method were used respectively for determining the relative weight of factors and their aggregation. Next, the resulted map was classified based on FAO framework and a class as constraints area. According to the results, from environmental perspective 114.36 km2 (0.51%), and after removing unsuitable environmental areas, from thetotal suitable area, from socio-economic perspective 73 km2 (0.33%) were identified as ahigh suitable class (S1). The overall accuracy of the first and final map compared to land use map 74.7% and 89.3% was obtained. According to our finding, most important parameters in land suitability evaluation for rice cultivation are water resources, climate, soil, machinery labor and topography and also the lack of water and soil salinity are the main obstacles to rice cultivation in the province.https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_20785_5f977cc7d8adbde612076017963a2fef.pdfUniversity of IsfahanGeography and Environmental Planning2008-536226420160220Climatic-Synoptic Classification of Circulation Patterns conducive to pervasive frost in IranClimatic-Synoptic Classification of Circulation Patterns conducive to pervasive frost in Iran21924620786FAPeymanMahmoudiUniversity of Sistan and BaluchestanMahmoodKhosraviUniversity of Sistan and BaluchestanSeyed AbolfazlMasoodianUniversity of IsfahanBohlolAlijaniTarbiat Moallem UniversityJournal Article20161126Frost, which results from temperature variations at the time, is among the significant phenomena under study in climatology. The current research is intended to identify the mechanisms responsible for Iran’s pervasive frosts through classification of synoptic patterns associated with this phenomenon. Thus, based on a spatial principle, the days when 65% or larger percent of Iran’s surface area underwent zero or below zero (Ì C) temperatures were selected as pervasive frost days in Iran. Total number of such days reached 835 during the total duration of the present study. Accordingly, the average daily data of geo-potential height (sea surface pressure) were extracted for the respective domain and Principle Component Analysis was performed on their matrix in order to identify and investigate the circulation patterns of 500 hPa level (sea surface pressure). Results of this analysis indicated that, using 15 components, it would be possible to explain 89.6% of geo-potential height changes as well as 84.9% of sea surface pressure changes at the times of Iran’s pervasive frosts. Then, to detect the circulation patterns related to Iran’s pervasive frosts, outputs of Principle Component Analysis were used as the inputs of cluster analysis, and finally, five patterns were introduced for geo-potential height of 500 hPa level and 3 patterns were identified for sea surface pressure. The research findings revealed the fact that a deep ridge needs to be formed at 500 hPa level around the Black Sea, and also, there should be an eastward spread of high-pressure European tongue or a westward spread of high-pressure Siberian tongue for occurrence of pervasive frosts in IranFrost, which results from temperature variations at the time, is among the significant phenomena under study in climatology. The current research is intended to identify the mechanisms responsible for Iran’s pervasive frosts through classification of synoptic patterns associated with this phenomenon. Thus, based on a spatial principle, the days when 65% or larger percent of Iran’s surface area underwent zero or below zero (Ì C) temperatures were selected as pervasive frost days in Iran. Total number of such days reached 835 during the total duration of the present study. Accordingly, the average daily data of geo-potential height (sea surface pressure) were extracted for the respective domain and Principle Component Analysis was performed on their matrix in order to identify and investigate the circulation patterns of 500 hPa level (sea surface pressure). Results of this analysis indicated that, using 15 components, it would be possible to explain 89.6% of geo-potential height changes as well as 84.9% of sea surface pressure changes at the times of Iran’s pervasive frosts. Then, to detect the circulation patterns related to Iran’s pervasive frosts, outputs of Principle Component Analysis were used as the inputs of cluster analysis, and finally, five patterns were introduced for geo-potential height of 500 hPa level and 3 patterns were identified for sea surface pressure. The research findings revealed the fact that a deep ridge needs to be formed at 500 hPa level around the Black Sea, and also, there should be an eastward spread of high-pressure European tongue or a westward spread of high-pressure Siberian tongue for occurrence of pervasive frosts in Iranhttps://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_20786_b953778fb3978e207604671f2c92699f.pdfUniversity of IsfahanGeography and Environmental Planning2008-536226420160220Modeling Animal Waste Management: A Case of Kermanshah ProvinceModeling Animal Waste Management: A Case of Kermanshah Province24726220787FAFatemePourghasemrazi universityAmirhosseinAlibaygirazi universityKumarsZarafshanirazi universityJournal Article20161126This qualitative study sought to investigate the improved animal waste management strategies among farmers in Kermanshah province. Using purposeful and snowball sampling, farmers with extensive experience who owned a large number of livestock participated in the study. Data was collected using focus group interview and direct observation. Grounded theory approach was used to analyze data. Results revealed that animal waste in the study region is mainly caused by inappropriate herd production, poor nutritional programming, weak maintenance, and nature of animal species. Overall, herdsmen used animal waste as a source of soil nutrient, handicraft, animal bedding, selling, propelling insects, and dumping. It is recommended that instead of dumping, farmers can use biological modification in waste products in order to produce biogas and compost.This qualitative study sought to investigate the improved animal waste management strategies among farmers in Kermanshah province. Using purposeful and snowball sampling, farmers with extensive experience who owned a large number of livestock participated in the study. Data was collected using focus group interview and direct observation. Grounded theory approach was used to analyze data. Results revealed that animal waste in the study region is mainly caused by inappropriate herd production, poor nutritional programming, weak maintenance, and nature of animal species. Overall, herdsmen used animal waste as a source of soil nutrient, handicraft, animal bedding, selling, propelling insects, and dumping. It is recommended that instead of dumping, farmers can use biological modification in waste products in order to produce biogas and compost.https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_20787_b055d7b18e4f0ace6a20e9cca04d4369.pdfUniversity of IsfahanGeography and Environmental Planning2008-536226420160220Urban Carrying Capacity and Sustainable Development Density in the ninth region of MashhadUrban Carrying Capacity and Sustainable Development Density in the ninth region of Mashhad26328620788FAShahrzadGholizade SarabiFerdowsi University of Mashhad (FUM)Mohammad-RahimRahnamaFerdowsi University of Mashhad (FUM)Journal Article201611261- Introduction
1- Introduction
The origin of the concept of carrying capacity is unknown. A number of biologists believed strongly that carrying capacity concept is rooted in biology. They define carrying capacity as a maximum population of a particular species that can be supported indefinitely in a specific environment without any sustainable damage on its life support systems` productivity and performance or reducing future capacity to support them. Looking at biological sciences, urban carrying capacity is equal to maximum load and pressure on theurban ecosystem that is mainly focused on the relationship between constraints and supply and demand pressure. Hence there is always a limit to the growth of biological populations that in thecase of its violation, both human and natural environment will be incredibly hazardous. As in retrogressed ecosystems like today metropolises, initial ecosystem structure and ecosystem process is impaired. Nowadays, in all cities, there is a very deep concern of nonrenewable resources, negative external effects of pollution and serious threat of irreversibility global ecosystems. Now, high volume of the urban population and severe metabolism in urban ecosystem forced thecity to tolerate a pressure more than refining capacity and its absorption capacity. Mashhad city is no exception for this rule. Today, the rapid growth of urban population in the metropolitan city of Mashhad affects largely not only urban making policies but also its consequences in the intensification of economic, social, management and biology issues and its concerns and worries make planners adopt measures in order to solve or control issues and crises raised from this phenomenon. Unfortunately, principles that are seen in setting management policies and planning in metropolitan of Mashhad are about meeting beneficiaries’ needs and requests and therefore what is unseen for this issue is environment tolerance thresholds and platform ecosystem capacity in facing with a great volume of material and energy and land usage change. In different studies, different approaches are presented for defining and determining urban carrying capacity. In this study, urban carrying capacity is formed by mixing two basic concepts support capacity and environment strength and it is a level of human activities and urban development density that while is guaranteed for human presentation threshold and different activities in the space includes the minimum damaging feedbacks. In this article, urban carrying capacity is determined as a range of minimum pressure that makes the least change and interference in platform ecosystem to the crisis pressure amount that disturbance in ecosystem performance is beyond that. It aims to integrate the concepts of environmental tolerance thresholds and platform ecosystem capacity with urban development management in order to control and survey urban ecosystem safety in constant management and planning process of Mashhad metropolises. 2 - Methodology In this paper, urban carrying capacity is formed by two basic concepts support capacity and critical capacity. Support capacity is a total sum of environmental facilities without regarding their interaction with each other and critical capacity is maximum load and pressure on theurban ecosystem that is measured based on pollution and in thecase of transition, biology community will face resistance. In order to determine the carrying capacity at first we estimate potential of productivity of each resource and performance loading of each urban facility in response to the real needs of urban dwellers and then based on the standards of environment and pollution-allowed thresholds that are gained through experiences, scientific evidence and legal requirements desired density of development is determined. Determinants of bed carrying capacity of this study will focus on municipal infrastructure capacity and seven factors of water supply, sewage treatment, waste treatment, energy, green areas, public transportation systems and roads. Population density index due to its direct relationship with the amount of pressure on each factor was used to determine intervals of the range and classification of pressure on the land, in which the upper bound and lower bound of each interval was determined based on production optimal per capita or consumption as well as based on targeted levels of services and actual demand for resources. This article study district isthe 9th region of Mashhad municipality located in the West of the city. 3 - Discussion According to the findings of this study, at this time, carrying capacity of more than 80 percent of city blocks of understudy region is passed allowable thresholds in terms of green areas, water supply, and wastewater treatment and they are in critical pressure range. In terms of energy, waste treatment, public transportation and roads, themajority of city blocks are in desirable and allowable thresholds and they are in good condition. Average of floor area ratio in terms of each seven factors of green areas, water supply, sewage treatment, waste treatment, energy, public transportation system and roads were calculated 119.4%, 90.6%, 450.8%, 310.3%, 243.8% and 216.5%, respectively that each of the components may vary depending on the area and so on. To assess the region carrying capacity, the results of the seven factors were combined and integrated by using GIS and based on Liebig’s Law of The Minimum. Results showed that more than 80% of city blocks in under study region were passed allowable thresholds, and they are in critical pressure range now. Later, floor area ratio was achieved equal to 90.6% for the region based on the minimum value obtained from among the determinants factors of carrying capacity that is very different with the situation in the region. 4 - Conclusion In this paper, the optimal thresholds of urban density were studied based on carrying capacity in 9th District of Mashhad and the results showed that the distribution of population and allocation of density development in this region is not based on the carrying capacity and no serious paying attention was made about it. In this study, unlike previous studies, two fundamental points will be focused: first, the number of people that can be sustained in a given area of land depends on their cultures because, in any land, it is people culture that determines their needs and lifestyles, and secondly, in accordance with change in technological levels and consumption over time, the goals and the demand for resources and also environment capabilities will be changed to meet the actual needs of the urban dwellers. As carrying capacity approach is only useful when the thresholds are set ahead of time so it is suggested that we need to use the concept of environmental tolerance capacity as a comprehensive tool for planning before negative effects of population pressure in urban` planning and management process and especially new development in Mashhad.
Keywords:environment, floor area ratio, sustainable development, urban carrying capacity.1- Introduction
1- Introduction
The origin of the concept of carrying capacity is unknown. A number of biologists believed strongly that carrying capacity concept is rooted in biology. They define carrying capacity as a maximum population of a particular species that can be supported indefinitely in a specific environment without any sustainable damage on its life support systems` productivity and performance or reducing future capacity to support them. Looking at biological sciences, urban carrying capacity is equal to maximum load and pressure on theurban ecosystem that is mainly focused on the relationship between constraints and supply and demand pressure. Hence there is always a limit to the growth of biological populations that in thecase of its violation, both human and natural environment will be incredibly hazardous. As in retrogressed ecosystems like today metropolises, initial ecosystem structure and ecosystem process is impaired. Nowadays, in all cities, there is a very deep concern of nonrenewable resources, negative external effects of pollution and serious threat of irreversibility global ecosystems. Now, high volume of the urban population and severe metabolism in urban ecosystem forced thecity to tolerate a pressure more than refining capacity and its absorption capacity. Mashhad city is no exception for this rule. Today, the rapid growth of urban population in the metropolitan city of Mashhad affects largely not only urban making policies but also its consequences in the intensification of economic, social, management and biology issues and its concerns and worries make planners adopt measures in order to solve or control issues and crises raised from this phenomenon. Unfortunately, principles that are seen in setting management policies and planning in metropolitan of Mashhad are about meeting beneficiaries’ needs and requests and therefore what is unseen for this issue is environment tolerance thresholds and platform ecosystem capacity in facing with a great volume of material and energy and land usage change. In different studies, different approaches are presented for defining and determining urban carrying capacity. In this study, urban carrying capacity is formed by mixing two basic concepts support capacity and environment strength and it is a level of human activities and urban development density that while is guaranteed for human presentation threshold and different activities in the space includes the minimum damaging feedbacks. In this article, urban carrying capacity is determined as a range of minimum pressure that makes the least change and interference in platform ecosystem to the crisis pressure amount that disturbance in ecosystem performance is beyond that. It aims to integrate the concepts of environmental tolerance thresholds and platform ecosystem capacity with urban development management in order to control and survey urban ecosystem safety in constant management and planning process of Mashhad metropolises. 2 - Methodology In this paper, urban carrying capacity is formed by two basic concepts support capacity and critical capacity. Support capacity is a total sum of environmental facilities without regarding their interaction with each other and critical capacity is maximum load and pressure on theurban ecosystem that is measured based on pollution and in thecase of transition, biology community will face resistance. In order to determine the carrying capacity at first we estimate potential of productivity of each resource and performance loading of each urban facility in response to the real needs of urban dwellers and then based on the standards of environment and pollution-allowed thresholds that are gained through experiences, scientific evidence and legal requirements desired density of development is determined. Determinants of bed carrying capacity of this study will focus on municipal infrastructure capacity and seven factors of water supply, sewage treatment, waste treatment, energy, green areas, public transportation systems and roads. Population density index due to its direct relationship with the amount of pressure on each factor was used to determine intervals of the range and classification of pressure on the land, in which the upper bound and lower bound of each interval was determined based on production optimal per capita or consumption as well as based on targeted levels of services and actual demand for resources. This article study district isthe 9th region of Mashhad municipality located in the West of the city. 3 - Discussion According to the findings of this study, at this time, carrying capacity of more than 80 percent of city blocks of understudy region is passed allowable thresholds in terms of green areas, water supply, and wastewater treatment and they are in critical pressure range. In terms of energy, waste treatment, public transportation and roads, themajority of city blocks are in desirable and allowable thresholds and they are in good condition. Average of floor area ratio in terms of each seven factors of green areas, water supply, sewage treatment, waste treatment, energy, public transportation system and roads were calculated 119.4%, 90.6%, 450.8%, 310.3%, 243.8% and 216.5%, respectively that each of the components may vary depending on the area and so on. To assess the region carrying capacity, the results of the seven factors were combined and integrated by using GIS and based on Liebig’s Law of The Minimum. Results showed that more than 80% of city blocks in under study region were passed allowable thresholds, and they are in critical pressure range now. Later, floor area ratio was achieved equal to 90.6% for the region based on the minimum value obtained from among the determinants factors of carrying capacity that is very different with the situation in the region. 4 - Conclusion In this paper, the optimal thresholds of urban density were studied based on carrying capacity in 9th District of Mashhad and the results showed that the distribution of population and allocation of density development in this region is not based on the carrying capacity and no serious paying attention was made about it. In this study, unlike previous studies, two fundamental points will be focused: first, the number of people that can be sustained in a given area of land depends on their cultures because, in any land, it is people culture that determines their needs and lifestyles, and secondly, in accordance with change in technological levels and consumption over time, the goals and the demand for resources and also environment capabilities will be changed to meet the actual needs of the urban dwellers. As carrying capacity approach is only useful when the thresholds are set ahead of time so it is suggested that we need to use the concept of environmental tolerance capacity as a comprehensive tool for planning before negative effects of population pressure in urban` planning and management process and especially new development in Mashhad.
Keywords:environment, floor area ratio, sustainable development, urban carrying capacity.https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_20788_05af7b4dc37ce5348a15ed14f66110ca.pdf