دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 35 3 2024 09 22 Identifying, Comparing, and Evaluating the Desirability of Social Indicators in Distressed and Inefficient Urban Areas (Case Study: Neighborhoods of Alavi, Fatemiyeh, and Nehzat Abad in Ahvaz Metropolitan) شناسایی، مقایسه و ارزیابی مطلوبیت شاخصهای اجتماعی در بافتهای فرسوده و ناکارآمد شهری (مورد مطالعه: محله‌های علوی، نهضت‌آباد و فاطمیه درکلانشهر اهواز) 1 34 28116 10.22108/gep.2024.135279.1546 FA بهروز شیری کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، واحد ماهشهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ماهشهر، ایران ‌ عباس معروف نژاد استادیار گروه‌ جغرافیا‌، واحد ماهشهر، دانشگاه‌ آزاد اسلامی، ماهشهر‌، ایران‌ 0000-0002-0940-2685 Journal Article 2022 10 16 Abstract Dynamic urban systems undergo constant change and as a result, certain areas of a city acquire a different appearance over time, bearing the marks of decline and decay. The present challenge lies in identifying these disconnected urban areas that have become inefficient. Therefore, the design of indicators for identification purposes should aim to minimize potential ambiguities by providing a robust assessment measure. This article primarily focused on investigating the introduced indicators for identifying different types of inefficient areas in the neighborhoods of Alavi, Nahzat Abad, and Fatemiyeh in Ahvaz Metropolis and developing applicable indicators (social belonging, social cohesion, social cooperation, social security, and social trust) for them. This research adopted an applied approach and employed a survey research method with a particular emphasis on questionnaires. The statistical population comprised residents of the three mentioned neighborhoods and the sample size was determined to be 377 individuals according to the Cochran formula. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was utilized to examine the normality of data distribution, while the sign test was employed to assess the status of research variables. Furthermore, the variables were weighted using the Shannon entropy model and the neighborhoods were ranked using the MABAK technique. The findings derived from the results of the sign test indicated that the neighborhood of Fatemiyeh exhibited a higher average impact coefficient of 0.23 across the five selected research components compared to the other two neighborhoods. Additionally, the results of ranking the selected social components in the three neighborhoods using the MABAK technique revealed that Fatemiyeh Neighborhood secured the top position with an Si value (component and indicator impact value) of 0.221 followed by Nahzat Abad Neighborhood with 0.127 and Alavi Neighborhood with 0.187 ranking second and third, respectively. Keywords: Social Indicators, Distressed and Inefficient Areas, MABAK Technique, Urban Neighborhoods, Ahvaz Metropolitan. Introduction One of the primary challenges in contemporary cities is the presence of distressed and inefficient urban areas, where insufficient attention is given to the concept of social issues or factors as vital components of vibrant neighborhoods. In many major cities, the traditional systems of communication and interaction have undergone significant transformations, resulting in a concerning decline in social connections among residents. Over the past three decades, the evolution of urban regeneration approaches has shifted from a focus on physical aspects to the recognition of social, economic, and cultural considerations, giving rise to community-based urban regeneration. This approach places emphasis on social interaction and recognizes the pivotal role of social groups. Furthermore, based on the outcomes of urban regeneration initiatives worldwide, it is evident that citizen trust and participation as essential elements for successful regeneration projects do not occur spontaneously but necessitate the involvement of various factors. This is where social issues can play a crucial role by actively engaging in the process of regeneration. Materials & Methods The methodology employed in this study was practical in nature with the primary objective being to utilize the survey research method, emphasizing the use of questionnaires. The analytical component of the research involved conducting a survey in the form of a questionnaire, which was administered to 377 residents from the three neighborhoods under investigation, utilizing a simple random sampling technique. To establish the validity of the questionnaire, the Delphi method was employed, involving a panel of experts and university professors, who provided their insights and recommendations, thus leading to necessary revisions of the questionnaire items. This process ensured that the questionnaire effectively measured the intended variables of the research. Reliability was assessed using Cronbach's alpha coefficient, which yielded a value of approximately 0.82, indicating satisfactory internal consistency. Descriptive and inferential statistics were employed to analyze the collected data. The data obtained from the questionnaire were processed using SPSS software, employing a multi-criteria questionnaire based on a 5-point Likert scale to evaluate 5 indicators and 36 variables pertaining to the level of citizen satisfaction within the studied neighborhoods, ranging from very high to very low values. To assess the normality of data distribution, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was utilized, while the sign test was employed to examine the status of the research variables. Additionally, variable weighting was conducted using the Shannon entropy model and ranking of the neighborhoods was determined using the MABAK technique. Research Findings Ahvaz Metropolis, spanning an area of 31,800 hectares, stands as the third-largest city in the country and encompasses multiple distressed areas across its eight urban districts. Within the metropolis, approximately 30 to 35% of the city's total area falls within legal limits and is classified as distressed areas or unauthorized settlements. Among the 124 neighborhoods in Ahvaz, more than 12 neighborhoods can be classified as distressed urban areas. In this study, 5 indicators (social belonging, social cohesion, social support, social security, and social trust) and 36 variables were selected to assess the performance of social factors within the three studied neighborhoods: Alavi, Nehzat Abad, and Fatemiyeh. These indicators were chosen based on previous research findings. The study aimed to address the issue of citizen trust and participation, which have been recognized as crucial factors for the success of urban regeneration projects worldwide. Such trust and participation do not arise spontaneously but require the involvement of multiple factors, including the aforementioned social issues (sense of social belonging, social cohesion, social security), which play a significant role in the process of regeneration. Discussion of Results & Conclusion With a deep understanding of the fifty-year history of government intervention in inefficient urban structures, contemporary approaches to urban intervention are now focused on adopting modern and diverse methods. It is evident that the failure of Iran's urban plans, particularly those aimed at rehabilitating distressed areas, can be attributed to the lack of attention given to social factors both in the past and present. The overall findings from the sign test indicated that Fatemiyeh Neighborhood with an average score of 3.02 exhibited a more favorable situation compared to the other two neighborhoods in terms of the research variables. Furthermore, the results obtained from the MABAK technique revealed that Fatemiyeh Neighborhood secured the top rank with an Si value (values dependent on the criteria of the options) of 0.221, while the neighborhoods of Nehzat Abad and Alavi respectively ranked second and third with Si values of 0.127 and -0.187 based on the five selected research indicators. One noteworthy aspect of this study, in comparison to previous research, was the recognition that bringing about improvements and modifications in the research variables within each of the studied neighborhoods, such as social and individual behaviors of residents, social relations among neighbors, social security, availability of service facilities, residents' cooperation and participation, trust and belief of neighborhood residents in each other and the government, and the interaction of service institutions with neighborhood residents, posed significant challenges. These challenges were rooted in the social conditions of these neighborhoods, which encompassed diverse ethnicities, low literacy rates, low-income classes, inadequate security measures, inadequate education, and high birth rates. Over the past few decades, these neighborhoods have developed specific social and cultural characteristics, leading to a resistance towards any form of change. سیستم پویـای شهر پیوسته در‌حـال تغییر و تحول است و در این میـان، با گـذشت زمان مشکلاتی مانند مسائل اجتماعی و ... چهرۀ برخی نقاط شهر را دگرگون کرده است و رنگ و بویی متفاوت از گذشته را که نشانه‌هایی از افول و زوال را در‌بر‌دارد، بر آنها نشانده است. مسئله‌ای که امروزه با آن روبه‌رو هستیم، شناسایی اینگونه بافت‌های شهری است که از چرخۀ متصل با شهر خارج و تبدیل به بافت‌هایی نا‌کارآمد شده است؛ بنابراین شناسایی شاخص‌ها باید به‌گونه‌ای تنظیم شوند که با ارائۀ میزانی برای سنجش، ابهام‌های ممکن را به حداقل رسانند. هدف از پژوهش حاضر بررسی شاخص‌های معرفی‌شده برای شناسایی بافت‌های نا‌کارآمد و تدوین شاخص‌هایی قابل استفاده (حس‌ تعلق‌ اجتماعی، انسجام اجتماعی، همیاری‌ اجتماعی، امنیت اجتماعی‌ و اعتماد اجتماعی) برای انواع بافت‌های ناکارآمد در راستای جبران نقصان‌های موجود در شناسه‌های به‌کار‌رفته در سه محلۀ علوی، نهضت‌آباد و فاطمیه در کلانشهر اهواز است. نوع پژوهش کاربردی و روش تحقیق، پیمایشی با تأکید بر پرسشنامه است. جامعۀ آماری شهروندان ساکن سه محله و حجم نمونه برحسب فرمول کوکران 377 نفر است. برای بررسی نرمال‌بودن توزیع داده‌ها از آزمون کلموگروف-اسمینروف و نیز برای بررسی وضعیت متغیرهای پژوهش از آزمون علامت استفاده شده است. همچنین، وزن‌دهی متغیرها با مدل آنتروپی‌شانون و رتبه‌بندی محله‌ها نیز با استفاده از تکنیک ماباک انجام شده‌ است. یافته‌های پژوهش حاصل از نتایج آزمون علامت نشان می‌دهد که محلۀ فاطمیه با میانگین ضریب تأثیر 02/3 در‌مجموعِ پنج مؤلفۀ انتخابی پژوهش به نسبت دو محلۀ دیگر بیشتر بوده‌ است. همچنین، نتایج حاصل از رتبه‌بندی مؤلفه‌های اجتماعی انتخاب‌شدۀ پژوهش در محله‌های سه‌گانه با استفاده از تکنیک ماباک نشان می‌دهد که محلۀ فاطمیه با مقدار Si (مقدار تأثیر‌گذاری مؤلفه و شاخص‌ها) 221/0 در رتبۀ اول و به‌ترتیب محلۀ نهضت‌آباد با 127/0 و محلۀ علوی با 187/0- در رتبه‌های دوم و سوم قرار گرفته است.

https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_28116_10124fd07a0f8dd844e3a2b88e0b7681.pdf

دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 35 3 2024 09 22 Examining Temporal and Spatial Variations of Soil Moisture in Iraq ارزیابی تغییرات زمانی-مکانی رطوبت خاک در عراق 35 64 28392 10.22108/gep.2024.140528.1629 FA مجید منتظری دانشیار آب‌و‌هواشناسی، دانشکدۀ علوم جغرافیایی و برنامه‌ریزی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران محمدصادق کیخسروی کیانی استادیار آب‌و‌هواشناسی، دانشکدۀ علوم جغرافیایی و برنامه‌ریزی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران حبیب الونیس کارشناسی ارشد آبوهواشناسی، آموزش و پرورش شهر ذی قار عراق Journal Article 2024 01 24 Abstract This study aimed to evaluate the temporal and spatial variations in surface soil moisture in Iraq, taking into account the influence of both natural fluctuations and human activities on environmental changes. Volumetric soil moisture data with a resolution of 0.25 degrees and daily intervals covering a thirty-year period (1991-2020) were obtained from the Copernicus climate database. Trend analysis was conducted to examine temporal and spatial trends in soil moisture levels. The results indicated a decrease in volumetric soil moisture during warm months and an increase during cold months, with the latter period exhibiting soil moisture values more than twice as high as the former. Furthermore, a declining trend in volumetric soil moisture during the cold months in Iraq was observed based on the evaluation of monthly time series. The average annual volumetric soil moisture in the country was estimated to be 0.164 m3/m3. The lowest soil moisture value was found in southern Iraq near the border with Kuwait (0.093 m3/m3), while the highest value was recorded in the northeastern mountainous region of Iraq (0.240 m3/m3). Notably, there was a gradual decrease in soil moisture from north to south in Iraq. The analysis of maps revealed that the most substantial decreasing trends occurred in January, February, and March, progressively diminishing as the warm season approached. These decreasing trends were predominantly observed along the rivers of Tigris and Euphrates, as well as around the Razazah Lake and the Tharthar Lake extending from northwest to southeast. The provinces of Diyala, Maysan, and Wasit, particularly Wasit, consistently exhibited decreasing trends in soil moisture in most months, indicating their vulnerability to soil moisture reduction. Keywords: Volumetric Soil Moisture, Trend Tests, Copernicus Climate Database, Iraq Introduction: Soil surface moisture is a crucial variable in hydrological processes that influence water and energy exchanges at the Earth's surface and in the atmosphere. Accurate estimation of temporal and spatial variations in soil moisture is vital for various environmental studies. In recent years, remote sensing techniques combined with satellite observations have enabled the measurement of soil surface moisture, providing valuable global-scale information for monitoring and drought prediction (Wang & Qu, 2009). Despite its relatively small quantity, soil moisture plays a significant role in the global water cycle (McColl et al., 2017). The land of Iraq with its ancient civilization owes its existence to the life-giving rivers of Tigris and Euphrates. Despite being located in an arid belt, these rivers have mitigated the adverse effects of the high-pressure desert climate, transforming the otherwise dry and arid land into a lush and vibrant region. However, human interventions in the environment, such as dam construction on the tributaries of the rivers, as well as the impacts of global warming leading to increased temperature and irregular rainfall patterns, have resulted in changes in soil moisture in Iraq. Consequently, extensive areas of the country, particularly along the rivers of Tigris and Euphrates, have experienced a significant decrease in soil moisture. Materials & Methods: In this study, soil moisture data obtained from the Copernicus database were utilized. The dataset covered the period from 1991 to 2020 and provided daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.25 x 0.25 degrees of latitude and longitude. The soil moisture data used in this research represented the volumetric soil moisture content measured in cubic meters of water per cubic meter of soil (m3/m3). To analyze the trend in the time series of soil moisture data, the Kendall test, a non-parametric method, was employed. The Mann-Kendall method initially introduced by Mann (1945) and further developed by Kendall (1970) was used as well. The null hypothesis of the Mann-Kendall test assumes randomness and the absence of a trend in the data series, while the alternative hypothesis (rejecting the null hypothesis) indicates the presence of a trend. A positive Z statistic indicates an upward trend in the data series, while a negative value indicates a downward trend. One notable advantage of this test is that it does not require the data to follow a normal distribution, making it robust in analyzing non-normal data. Research Findings: The average annual volumetric soil moisture in Iraq was 0.164 m3/m-3 with significant spatial variation ranging from 0.068 to 0.286 m3/m-3, indicating an uneven distribution across the country. The spatial variability coefficient was relatively high at approximately 23.6%. The southern regions of Iraq bordering Kuwait exhibited the lowest levels of volumetric soil moisture, while the highest levels were observed in Baghdad Province, gradually decreasing towards the surrounding areas. Overall, there was a northeast-southwest trend in volumetric soil moisture in Iraq with values decreasing from the northeast to the southwest. This pattern was influenced by the topography and geographical location of the rivers of Tigris and Euphrates. In the northeastern mountainous region of Iraq, the volumetric soil moisture was approximately 0.18 m3/m-3. Conversely, in the foothill region encompassing Sulaymaniyah, Kirkuk, Erbil, Dohuk, and the northern half of Nineveh Province, the moisture content exceeded 0.2 m3/m-3 and occasionally reached beyond 0.26 m3/m-3. Analyzing the monthly variations in soil moisture revealed distinct patterns. For example, in January, about 54% of Iraq experienced a decreasing trend in soil moisture. This trend extended in a northwest-southeast direction along the rivers of Tigris and Euphrates, covering provinces, such as Diyala, Wasit, Maysan, Qadsiyeh, Babol, Dhi Qar, Basra, and Mushani. In February, a decreasing trend was observed in approximately 42% of the area of Iraq. The February trend map showed similarities to the pattern observed in January, albeit with lower intensity. The spatial extent of decreasing trends widened in a northwest-southeast direction along the rivers of Tigris and Euphrates. In March, declining trends covered around 24% of the area of Iraq, particularly along the northwest-southeast direction along the Tigris River in the provinces of Diyala, Wasit, and Misan, exhibiting increased density and intensity. In April, around 12% of the area of Iraq experienced a decreasing trend. These declining trends followed a specific geographic pattern, mostly occurring along the Tigris River and including provinces, such as Diyala, Wasit, Misan, and parts of Basra. In May, a similar geographic pattern was observed, with approximately 12% of the area of Iraq exhibiting declining trends. These trends were primarily noticed along the Tigris River in Wasit, Maysan, Dhi Qar, and parts of Basra, as well as around the Al-Razzah Lake and the Al-Tharsar Lake, along with a portion of Kirkuk Province. The extent of decreasing trends decreased in June, while the extent of increasing trends expanded. In July, the extent of increasing trends surpassed that of decreasing trends. Decreasing trends covered 7.4% of the area of Iraq primarily observed around the Al-Razzah Lake and the Al-Tharsar Lake, as well as in parts of the provinces of Wasit, Maysan, and Babol. In August, decreasing trends encompassed 6% of the area of Iraq mainly witnessed around the Al-Tharsar Lake, the Al-Razzah Lake, southern Dhi Qar Province, and northern Mothni Province. The trend pattern in September mirrored that of August with declining trends covering 8% of the area of Iraq predominantly observed around the Al-Razzah Lake and the Al-Tharsar Lake and along the Euphrates River in Qadsiyeh Province, north of Mothni Province, and the center of Dhi-Qar. In October, decreasing trends affected 12% of the area of Iraq primarily noticed around the Al-Razzah Lake and the Al-Tharsar Lake, as well as along the Tigris River in the provinces of Diyala and Wasit and parts of the provinces of Qadisiyah and Dhi Qar. The trend map for November highlighted the smallest range of decreasing and increasing trends compared to other months. In this month, 97% of the area of Iraq exhibited no discernible trend. In December, a trend pattern resembling that of April was observed with 11.5% of the area of Iraq experiencing a decrease. This decrease was mainly noticed along the rivers of Tigris and Euphrates, surrounding Al-Razzazeh Lake, below Al-Hadithah Lake, and in the provinces of Diyala, Wasit, and Misan. Discussion of Results & Conclusion: For this research, we utilized soil moisture data from the Copernicus Climate Base. The data had a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees and covered the period from 1991 to 2020 collected on a daily basis. Within the geographical extent of Iraq, we identified a total of 688 cells for analysis. To assess temporal and spatial trends, we employed linear regression trend tests and Mann-Kendall tests. In the temporal analysis, we initially explored the annual changes in soil moisture. Our findings revealed that the average volumetric soil moisture in Iraq from 1991 to 2020 was 0.1646 m3/m-3. The highest recorded soil moisture during this period was 0.1782 in 1993, while the lowest was 0.1514 in 2017. Examining the annual time series of soil moisture indicated an overall decline. Furthermore, our monthly analyses highlighted significant decreasing trends in January, February, and March with a subsequent reduction in the extent of areas exhibiting declining trends as the warmer months approached. Conversely, the increasing trends in soil moisture were more modest during the colder months but exceeded 20% during the warmer months of the year. Geographically, the decreasing trends extended from the northwest to the southeast, primarily along the rivers of Tigris and Euphrates. It is worth noting that the decrease in river flow attributed to the construction of dams in Turkey, particularly Ilisu Dam at the source of the Tigris River, might have contributed to this phenomenon. In conclusion, our research indicated an overall decline in soil moisture in Iraq over the studied period. The decreasing trends were most pronounced during the colder months, while increasing trends were more prominent in the warmer months. The geographical distribution of these trends suggested a strong influence from the rivers of Tigris and Euphrates potentially impacted by upstream dam construction. These findings provide valuable insights into the patterns of soil moisture in Iraq and can contribute to better understanding and managing water resources in the region. تغییرات محیطی ناشی از تغییرات طبیعی و فعالیت‌های انسانی می‌تواند در میزان رطوبت خاک تأثیر بگذارد و زمینۀ کاهش آب خاک را فراهم آورد؛ از این رو در پژوهش حاضر برای ارزیابی تغییرات زمانی و مکانی رطوبت سطحی (2 تا 5 سانتی‌متری) خاک در عراق داده‌های رطوبت حجمی خاک با تفکیک 25/0 درجه‌ای و بازۀ زمانی روزانه در یک دورۀ سی‌ساله (1991-2020) از پایگاه داده‌های اقلیمی کوپرنیکوس برداشت شد. در این مطالعه برای ارزیابی روندهای زمانی و مکانی از آزمون‌های روند رگرسیون خطی و مان-کندال استفاده شد. بررسی‌ها نشان داد که رطوبت حجمی خاک در ماه‌های گرم کاهش و در ماه‌های سرد افزایش یافته است؛ به‌طوری که مقدار‌های رطوبت خاک در ماه‌های سرد بیش از دو برابر ماه‌های گرم است. ارزیابی روند سری زمانی ماهانۀ رطوبت حجمی خاک در عراق نشان داد که ماه‌های دورۀ سرد روند کاهشی داشته است. میانگین مکانی سالانۀ رطوبت حجمی خاک در عراق 164/0m3/m-3 برآورد شد. کمترین مقدار رطوبت حجمی خاک در جنوب عراق در مرز کویت (093/0m3/m-3) و بیشترین رطوبت حجمی خاک در منطقۀ پایکوهی شمال شرق عراق (24/0m3/m-3) است. مقدار رطوبت خاک در عراق از شمال به جنوب کاسته می‌شود. بررسی نقشه‌های روند نشان داد که بیشترین روندهای کاهشی به‌ترتیب در ماه‌های دی، بهمن و اسفند بوده است که در ماه‌های دورۀ گرم سال از وسعت پهنه‌های با روند کاهشی کاسته می‌شود. گسترۀ جغرافیایی روندهای کاهشی روند شمال غرب–جنوب شرق داشته است و بیشتر در امتداد رودهای دجله و فرات و در اطراف دریاچۀ الرزازه و الثرثار مشاهده می‌شود. استان دیالی، میسان و به‌ویژه استان واسط در بیشتر ماه‌ها در‌معرض روندهای کاهشی رطوبت خاک قرار داشتند که این حکایت از در‌معرض خطر قرار‌داشتن این مناطق دارد. مناطقی که در‌معرض کاهش رطوبت خاک قرار داشته‌اند، بیشتر در‌معرض خطر تبدیل‌شدن به کانون‌های تولید گرد و غبار هستند. در پایان پژوهش به پژوهشگران پیشنهاد می‌شود که اقدام‌های حفاظتی مانند کاشت درختان خشکی‌پسند (نیاز آبی اندکی دارند) انجام شود تا از کاهش بیشتر رطوبت خاک جلوگیری شود.

https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_28392_aec4e9bde949865788d0c7e618cd0fe7.pdf

دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 35 3 2024 09 22 Identification and Zoning of Areas Prone to the Occurrence of Landslides Using the Aras Multi-Criteria Analysis Method (Study Area: Qaranqoochay Watershed in the Southeast of East Azarbaijan Province) شناسایی و پهنهبندی مناطق مستعد وقوع خطر زمینلغزش با استفاده از روش تحلیل چندمعیارۀ آراس (منطقۀ مورد مطالعه: حوضۀ آبخیز قرنقوچای در جنوب شرق استان آذربایجان شرقی) 65 94 28451 10.22108/gep.2024.140985.1639 FA صیاد اصغری سرسکانرود استاد ژئومورفولوژی، دانشکدۀ علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران الناز پیروزی دکتری ژئومورفولوژی، دانشکدۀ علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران Journal Article 2024 03 14 Abstract Landslides are a type of mass movement that often result in significant financial and human losses. Effectively mitigating these losses requires identifying high-risk areas. The Qaranqoochay Basin has long been susceptible to landslides due to its geological, physiographic, lithological, climatic, and anthropogenic conditions. This study aimed to assess and zone the landslide risk within this basin. First, a distribution map was created depicting landslides and relevant variables, including slope, aspect, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), lithology, land use, rainfall, and distance from roads, rivers, and faults. The degree of membership for each parameter was then determined using fuzzy membership functions, and the criteria weights were calculated using the CRITIC method. Finally, a landslide susceptibility map was generated using the ARAS multi-criteria decision analysis approach. The results indicated that slope, lithology, and land use were the most influential factors with weights of 0.162, 0.152, and 0.147, respectively. Approximately 12.86 and 25.42% of the basin area were classified as high-risk and very high-risk, respectively. These high-risk zones were primarily located in the northern, southern, and central parts of the basin, warranting prioritized management and protection efforts. The use of the rock curve method and sub-curve level (0.89) demonstrated the excellent accuracy of the ARAS method in identifying and zoning landslide-prone areas within the Qaranqoochay Basin. Keywords: Hazard, Mass Movement, Qaranqoochay Watershed, MCDM. Introduction Landslides are among the most dangerous natural disasters, resulting in significant loss of life, financial resources, and natural capital worldwide (Nazariani & Fallah, 2023; Silakhouri et al., 2023). The severe implications of landslides for the environment underscore the need to mitigate the damages caused by this hazard (Porfarazeshzadeh & Asghari Saraskanroud, 2022). The Qaranqoochay Basin is highly susceptible to landslides due to its unique geographic characteristics, including mountainous terrain, steep slopes, the presence of loose surface materials overlying resistant bedrock, and climatic conditions (e.g., spring rainfall and snowmelt). Despite the basin's vulnerability and the damages caused by past landslide events, such as destruction of transportation infrastructure and erosion of valuable soil resources, the landslide potential in this area has not been thoroughly investigated using multi-criteria analysis techniques. This research aimed to address this gap by employing the novel ARAS multi-criteria decision-making method to assess and zone the landslide risk within the Qaranqoochay Basin. The findings of this study will help inform effective risk management and mitigation strategies to protect the basin's communities, infrastructure, and natural resources. Materials & Methods This applied research employed an integrated data analysis, Geographic Information System (GIS), and multi-criteria analysis approach. Several software packages, including ENVI, Ecognition, ArcGIS, Idrisi, and Excel, were utilized for image processing and data analysis. To assess the landslide risk, the researchers first identified the key influencing factors, including slope, aspect, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), lithology, land use, rainfall, and distance from roads, rivers, and faults. These factors were selected based on the natural and anthropogenic conditions of the study area. Next, information layers corresponding to each of these factors were prepared within the GIS environment. The relative importance of the investigated factors was determined using the CRITIC weighting method and the final landslide risk assessment was conducted using the ARAS multi-criteria decision-making approach. After generating the landslide susceptibility map, the accuracies of the models were evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Research Findings The analysis revealed a strong correlation between the identified high-risk and very high-risk areas and the locations of observed landslides. Specifically, 30.76% of the landslides that occurred within the basin fell into the high-risk category, while 55.77% were situated within the very high-risk zones. The spatial distribution of cities and villages across the risk classes further highlighted the basin's vulnerability. The cities of Turkmanchay and Qarah Aghaj, along with 120 villages (16.13% of the total villages), were located within the very high-risk areas. The high-risk class encompassed the city of Nazarkehrizi and 223 villages (29.97% of the total). Additionally, the cities of Hashtroud, Mianeh, Aqkand, and Tikmehdash, as well as 178 villages (23.92%), fell within the medium-risk category. The remaining villages were distributed across the low-risk (158 villages, 21.24%) and very low-risk (65 villages, 8.74%) classes. These findings underscored the widespread landslide risk faced by the communities within the Qaranqoochay Basin with a significant proportion of the population and infrastructure located in the high-risk and very high-risk areas. Targeted risk mitigation and adaptation strategies will be crucial to enhance the resilience of the basin's settlements and protect its natural resources. Discussion of Results & Conclusion The landslide risk zoning analysis revealed that the most influential factors for landslide occurrence in the study area were slope (weight: 0.162), lithology (weight: 0.152), and land use (weight: 0.147). Specifically, slopes between 10-55%, areas with discontinuous Quaternary fine and coarse-grained surface materials, marl, sandstone, conglomerate, sandy pyroclastic rocks, silt, clay, and volcanic ash, as well as agricultural and poor-to-medium pasture lands, exhibited severe disturbance and high landslide potential. The results further indicated that 12.86 and 25.42% of the basin area fell into the high-risk and very high-risk categories, respectively. These high-risk zones should be prioritized for targeted management interventions and protection projects. Application of the ROC curve analysis with an area under the curve of 0.89 demonstrated the excellent accuracy of the ARAS multi-criteria decision-making method in identifying and delineating landslide-prone areas within the Qaranqoochay Basin. This robust analytical approach is expected to be of significant interest to researchers seeking appropriate landslide risk assessment and zoning methodologies, particularly in regions with natural and anthropogenic characteristics similar to the study area. These findings provide a valuable foundation for developing comprehensive landslide risk management strategies within the Qaranqoochay Basin. By targeting the high-risk and very high-risk zones, local authorities and stakeholders can implement effective mitigation measures to enhance community resilience and safeguard critical infrastructure and natural resources. پدیدۀ زمین‌لغزش از انواع حرکت‌های دامنه‌ای است که همواره خسارت‌های مالی و جانی زیادی را در‌پی دارد. در این میان، برای کاهش خسارت‌های ناشی از چنین حرکاتی، شناخت دقیق مکان‌های در‌معرض خطر بسیار مؤثر است. حوضۀ آبخیز قرنقوچای با‌توجه به شرایط زمین‌شناسی، فیزیوگرافی، لیتولوژی، اقلیمی و انسانی از دیرباز تحت‌تأثیر وقوع خطر زمین‌لغزش بوده است. بر این اساس، محققان در پژوهش حاضر به‌دنبال ارزیابی و پهنه‌بندی خطر زمین‌لغزش در‌سطح این حوضه هستند. در این راستا، ابتدا نقشۀ پراکنش زمین‌لغزش‌ها و متغیرهای تأثیرگذار (شیب، جهت شیب، ارتفاع، لیتولوژی، کاربری‌اراضی، بارش، فاصله از راه ارتباطی، فاصله از آبراهه و فاصله از گسل) فراهم و در مرحلۀ بعدی با استفاده از تابع عضویت فازی، درجۀ عضویت پارامترها و با استفاده از روش کریتیک، مقدار‌های وزنی معیارها تعیین و در‌نهایت، نقشۀ حساسیت زمین‌لغزش با استفاده از روش تصمیم‌گیری چند‌معیارۀ ARAS استخراج شد. با‌توجه به نتایج به‌دست‌آمده شیب، لیتولوژی و کاربری ‌اراضی به‌ترتیب با مقدار‌های 162/0، 152/0 و 147/0بیشترین وزن را از بین عوامل مؤثر بر وقوع زمین‌لغزش داشتند. همچنین، نتایج حاصل از پژوهش نشان داد که به‌ترتیب 86/12 و 42/25 درصد از مساحت حوضه در طبقۀ بسیار پرخطر و پرخطر قرار دارد. به‌طور ‌عمده، مناطق بسیار پرخطر و پرخطر در قسمت‌های کوهستانی شمالی، جنوبی و بخش مرکزی حوضه واقع شده است که این پهنه‌ها از‌لحاظ کارهای مدیریتی و اجرای پروژه‌های حفاظتی باید در اولویت قرار گیرند. همچنین، با نظر به بهره‌گیری از روش منحنی راک و با سطح زیرمنحنی (89/0) دقت روش ARAS در شناسایی و پهنه‌بندی مناطق مستعد وقوع خطر زمین‌لغزش حوضۀ قرنقوچای در‌سطح عالی است.

https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_28451_7db2389b68bb4b51b606499287cec92e.pdf

دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 35 3 2024 09 22 Identification of Vulnerable Karst Areas Using the COP Model (Case Study: Tekab Basin) شناسایی مناطق کارست آسیبپذیر با استفاده از مدل COP (مطالعۀ موردی: حوزۀ آبریز تکاب) 95 112 28450 10.22108/gep.2024.141035.1640 FA مهین پیره دانشجوی دکتری ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران،‌ ایران مهرنوش قدیمی دانشیار ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران حمید گنجائیان دکتری ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران،‌ ایران Journal Article 2024 04 08 Abstract Karst landscapes are of great importance due to their role in providing vital water resources. However, these areas face a high risk of resource pollution, which is a significant concern. This study aimed to identify pollution-prone zones within the Tekab Catchment. The research utilized topographic maps (1:50,000 scale), a 1:100,000 geological map, and a 12.5-m digital elevation model derived from Landsat satellite imagery. Key analytical tools included ArcGIS and ENVI software. The study was conducted in two stages. First, the (Concentration, Overlapping, and Protection (COP) method was employed to delineate areas vulnerable to pollution. Second, the trend of residential expansion towards these vulnerable zones was assessed. The COP model results indicated that approximately 33% of the catchment area, primarily the northwestern and southern regions, exhibited high to very high pollution vulnerability. This was attributed to the underlying lithology, land cover type, hydroclimatic conditions, and geomorphological characteristics. Furthermore, evaluation of land use changes revealed that the built-up area had increased from 8 km2 in 1990 to 19 km2in 2019. Consequently, the southern and northwestern parts of the Tekab Catchment were facing heightened vulnerability due to both their inherent pollution potential and the ongoing expansion of human settlements. These findings underscored the critical need for targeted management strategies to protect the valuable water resources within the Tekab Catchment, particularly in the identified high-risk zones, and ensure the long-term sustainability of this important karst landscape. Keywords: Pollution, Landuse Changes, Karst Areas, COP. Introduction Karst landscapes are characterized by the dissolution of bedrock and the formation of an intricate underground drainage network predominantly associated with carbonate rock formations. Karst springs are of crucial importance as they supply drinking water to approximately 25% of the global population. Considering the significant role of karst resources in providing water, protection of these valuable resources is essential. Karst landscapes are highly vulnerable and sensitive to pollution, which poses a significant challenge in the management of karst water resources. Iran's geographical location has led to approximately 11% of the country's area being covered by karst formations, including the Tekab Catchment located in the northwest of the country. The hydro-climatic characteristics of the Tekab Basin have contributed to the high potential for karst resource development, making the protection and prevention of pollution in these resources a pressing priority. Given the importance of karst water resources and the need for their protection, this study aimed to identify the areas within the Tekab Catchment, which were prone to pollution. Understanding the vulnerability of the basin to pollution is a crucial step in developing effective management strategies to safeguard these vital water resources. Materials and Methods This study utilized a range of geospatial data and analytical tools to achieve its objectives. The research data included 1:50,000 scale topographic maps, a 1:100,000 geological map, and a 12.5-m digital elevation model derived from Landsat satellite imagery. The key software tools employed were ArcGIS and ENVI, which were used to prepare the necessary maps and land use datasets. The research methodology was divided into two main stages. In the first stage, the Concentration, Overlapping, and Protection (COP) method was applied to identify areas within the study area that were vulnerable to pollution. This approach primarily examined two factors: the travel time of pollutants from the source to the destination and the reduction in pollutant concentration along the flow path. In the second stage, land use maps were generated for the years 1990 and 2020 using Landsat satellite imagery. This allowed for the assessment of the development trends of anthropogenic land uses (e.g., settlements) in relation to the previously identified vulnerable areas. By integrating the results from these two stages, the study was able to delineate the zones within the Tekab Catchment that were susceptible to pollution and analyze the spatial patterns of human-induced land use changes that might exacerbate the vulnerability of these critical water resources. Research Findings The COP method was employed to assess the vulnerability of the study area. The C factor represented the infiltration capacity, emphasizing the permeability and influence of precipitation on the ground surface. According to the C factor map, the northern parts of the region exhibited the highest potential for vulnerability. The O factor was calculated based on soil properties, including permeability, thickness, porosity, and lithological composition. This analysis indicated that the southern and northwestern regions of the basin had the greatest potential for vulnerability. The P factor considered the characteristics of precipitation, such as the amount, temporal distribution, duration, and intensity of floods, which could influence the infiltration rate. Based on this factor, the eastern and northern parts of the basin were identified as the most vulnerable areas. By integrating the maps of the individual factors, the overall vulnerability map was generated using the COP method. The results revealed that the southern and northwestern regions of the study area had the highest vulnerability to pollution. Additionally, this study examined the trend of land use development, specifically the expansion of anthropogenic land uses (e.g., settlements) towards the vulnerable areas. The analysis showed a significant increase in human-induced land uses within the vulnerable zones over a 30-year period. Discussion of Results & Conclusion The Tekab Catchment area is characterized by a distinct karst landscape, shaped by the region's underlying lithology and hydro-climatic conditions. This makes the identification and protection of vulnerable karst resources a critical priority. While numerous studies have focused on assessing the vulnerability of karst areas, this research presented a unique approach by not only delineating the vulnerable zones, but also analyzing the development of anthropogenic land uses within these sensitive areas. The evaluation of the COP model in the Tekab Catchment revealed that the southern and northwestern regions of the basin exhibited high to very high vulnerability. This could be attributed to the specific lithological characteristics, land cover types, hydro-climatic factors, and geomorphological conditions prevalent in these areas. Furthermore, the analysis of land use change over a 30-year period (1990 to 2019) showed a significant increase in the expansion of human-induced land uses, such as settlements, within the identified vulnerable zones. The areal extent of these anthropogenic land uses had increased from approximately 8 km2 in 1990 to nearly 19 km2in 2019. Given the high vulnerability of the southern and northwestern parts of the Tekab Catchment coupled with the intensifying development of human activities in these sensitive areas, it is crucial to implement targeted planning and management strategies. This should involve prevention of polluting industries and activities from encroaching into these vulnerable zones in order to safeguard the critical karst water resources that serve the local population. مناطق کارستیک به‌دلیل نقش مهمی که در تأمین منابع آب لازم دارند، بسیار حائز اهمیت هستند. یکی از مسائل مهم مناطق کارستیک پتانسیل بالای آلودگی این منابع است. با‌توجه به اهمیت موضوع، در این پژوهش مناطق مستعد آلودگی در ‌حوزۀ آبریز تکاب شناسایی شده است. در پژوهش حاضر برای دستیابی به هدف‌های مدنظر از نقشه‌های توپوگرافی ۱:۵۰۰۰۰، نقشۀ زمین‌شناسی ۱:۱۰۰۰۰۰، مدل رقومی ارتفاعی 5/12 متر و تصاویر ماهوارۀ لندست به‌عنوان داده‌های پژوهش استفاده شد. ابزارهای مهم استفاده‌شده در این مطالعه شامل ArcGIS و ENVI است. این پژوهش در دو مرحلۀ کلی انجام شده است. در مرحلۀ اول با استفاده از روش COP مناطق آسیب‌پذیر در‌برابر آلودگی شناسایی و در مرحلۀ دوم نیز روند توسعۀ نواحی سکونتگاهی به سمت این مناطق شناسایی شد. بر‌اساس نتایج مدل COP حدود 33 درصد از منطقه که بیشتر شامل مناطق شمال غربی و جنوبی حوضه است، به‌دلیل نوع لیتولوژی، نوع پوشش زمین، وضعیت هیدرواقلیمی و وضعیت ژئومورفولوژی پتانسیل آسیب‌پذیری زیاد و خیلی زیادی دارند. همچنین، نتایج حاصل‌شده از ارزیابی روند تغییرات کاربری اراضی بیانگر این است که کاربری نواحی انسان‌ساخت در سال 1990 حدود 8 کیلومتر مربع بوده که این میزان در سال 2019 به حدود 19 کیلومتر مربع افزایش یافته است. با‌توجه به موارد مذکور بخش‌های جنوبی و شمال غربی حوزۀ آبریز تکاب به‌دلیل روند توسعۀ نواحی انسان‌ساخت پتانسیل آسیب‌پذیری زیادی در‌برابر آلودگی دارند.

https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_28450_1d0c54d610b0ddbfbf67c0984293934e.pdf

دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 35 3 2024 09 22 Monitoring Temporal-Spatial Changes of Atmospheric Suspended Dust in Selected Provinces of the Western Half of Iran Using MODIS and Sentinel-5 Images پایش تغییرات زمانی-مکانی گرد و غبار معلق جوّ در استان‌های منتخب نیمۀ غرب ایران با استفاده از تصاویر MODIS و Sentinel- 5Sentinel- 5 113 128 28688 10.22108/gep.2024.140621.1635 FA فاطمه وطن پرست قلعه‌جوق دانشجوی دکتری آب‌و‌هواشناسی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکدۀ علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران برومند صلاحی استاد آب و هواشناسی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران بتول زینالی استاد آبوهواشناسی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکدۀ علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران Journal Article 2024 03 05 Abstract Dust is a significant global challenge. This study aimed to monitor the temporal and spatial changes of suspended atmospheric dust in the western half of Iran, specifically in the provinces of Ilam, Khuzestan, Kermanshah, Kurdistan, and Lorestan. We utilized MODIS sensor products from 2012 to 2021 and Sentinel-5 imagery from 2018 to 2021 within the Google Earth Engine framework. These sensor products are invaluable for managing and addressing dust-related issues. Using Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Absorbing Aerosol Index (AAI) data, we tracked the trends in aerosol concentration over time and across the selected regions. Additionally, we calculated the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Bare Soil Index (BSI) from MOD13Q1 images for the same period to assess their average changes. The analysis revealed a downward trend in AOD during January and an upward trend in July. The AAI indicated that January 2021 recorded the lowest aerosol levels, while July and September 2021 experienced the highest concentrations. Classifying aerosol concentrations into three categories highlighted that regions with high aerosol levels, as indicated by MODIS data, were consistently found in Khuzestan and Ilam provinces, while Sentinel data showed sporadic occurrences. Furthermore, the correlation between dust concentration from MODIS imagery and EVI and BSI indices revealed that the highest aerosol concentrations were located in areas with little vegetation and bare soils. Keywords: Western Half of Iran, Dust, Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), Absorbing Aerosol Index (AAI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Bare Soil Index (BSI). Introduction Dust has emerged as a significant contributor to air and environmental pollution worldwide. It can reduce horizontal visibility to less than 1,000 meters. With the increasing frequency of dust storms in recent years, monitoring these events has become crucial for identifying their sources. Given that dust can travel long distances from its origin, traditional measurement methods face time and spatial limitations. Therefore, satellite imagery and derived indices, such as Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Absorbing Aerosol Index (AAI), are essential for effectively monitoring dust across extensive areas. Materials & Methods This study examined the temporal and spatial changes of dust in the provinces of Ilam, Khuzestan, Kermanshah, Kurdistan, and Lorestan. We utilized AOD from Terra and Aqua satellite images (MODIS sensor) for the years 2012-2021, along with AAI from Sentinel-5 (TROPOMI sensor) for the years 2018-2021. To analyze the trends and severity of dust changes, we employed the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Bare Soil Index (BSI) derived from MOD13Q1 MODIS Terra images. Subsequently, we assessed the annual trends in AOD and AAI, generating spatial distribution maps of these changes. These maps were classified for the study period to facilitate a comprehensive understanding of dust dynamics in the region. Research Findings Analysis of the monthly time series for the AOD index revealed that the highest concentration of air pollutants in the studied provinces occurred in July 2012, while January consistently exhibited cleaner air throughout the period. Monthly variations in aerosol concentrations, as indicated by AAI satellite data, showed an upward trend in July and September due to elevated temperatures and reduced cloud cover and precipitation. Conversely, January saw a decrease in aerosol concentrations attributed to increased precipitation and lower temperatures. Yearly assessments of suspended dust concentrations using the AOD index indicated that 2012 and 2020 had the highest levels of aerosols. In Khuzestan and parts of Ilam Province, aerosol concentrations were notably high, identifying these areas as significant sources of dust. In contrast, Kurdistan and Lorestan provinces exhibited lower levels of suspended dust in the atmosphere. Based on the spatial distribution of dust density derived from MODIS and Sentinel-5 images, Khuzestan Province was classified as a high-risk area and served as an active center for dust generation. The spatial distribution of vegetation, as indicated by the EVI, revealed significant changes in vegetation in the northwest region of Khuzestan. In contrast, the southern parts of Khuzestan and the western areas of Ilam Province exhibited minimal vegetation changes alongside the highest dust concentrations during the study period. Discussion of Results & Conclusion The classification of aerosol concentrations into three categories revealed that areas with high aerosol levels, as indicated by MODIS images, were consistently found in Khuzestan and Ilam provinces, while Sentinel images showed these concentrations sporadically. The analysis of dust concentration in MODIS images, alongside the EVI and BSI, demonstrated that the highest aerosol concentrations occurred in regions characterized by minimal vegetation and bare soils. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for decision-makers aiming to manage areas with potential dust generation. Without effective management and planning, regions classified as medium-risk could gradually transition into high-risk areas, exacerbating the dust problem. The western regions of Kermanshah and Kurdistan provinces fell into a moderate category regarding vegetation. According to the BSI, most of the studied provinces featured bare soils, with only the western parts of Kermanshah, Kurdistan, and eastern Lorestan, along with central Khuzestan, displaying vegetation, water, and snow. پژوهش حاضر با هدف پایش تغییرات زمانی و مکانی گرد و غبار معلق جوّ در قسمت‌هایی از نیمۀ غرب ایران در محیط گوگل ارث انجین با استفاده از کارآمدترین محصولات سنجندۀ مودیس در بازۀ زمانی (2012-2021) و تصاویر سنتینل-۵ برای دورۀ (2018-2021) انجام شد. برای این منظور روند تغییرات زمانی و مکانی غلظت هواویز با استفاده از تصاویر شاخص عمق نوری (AOD) و شاخص جذب آئروسل (AI) پایش و سپس شاخص بهینۀ پوشش گیاهی (EVI) و شاخص خاک لخت (BSI) حاصل از تصاویر MOD13Q1 برای بازۀ زمانی (2012-2021) محاسبه شد ودرنهایت، میانگین تغییرات آنها به دست آمد. تغییرات غلظت گرد و غبار معلق در جوّ با استفاده از شاخص AOD روند نزولی را در ماه ژانویه و روند صعودی را در ماه جولای نشان می‌دهد؛ درحالی ‌که این غلظت در ژانویۀ سال 2021 کمترین و در ماه‌های جولای و سپتامبر سال 2021 بیشترین میزان آئروسل را با استفاده از شاخص AI داشته است. گروه‌بندی غلظت آئروسل‌ها در سه طبقه برای پهنۀ مطالعه‌شده نشان داد که مناطق با غلظت زیاد آئروسل بر‌اساس تصاویر مودیس و سنتینل شامل خوزستان و ایلام است که این طبقه‌بندی‌ها در تصاویر مودیس به‌صورت مداوم است؛ ولی در تصاویر سنتینل به‌صورت پراکنده است. هم‌پوشانی میزان غلظت گرد و غبار در تصاویر مودیس با شاخص‌های EVI و BSI نشان داد که بیشترین تمرکز آئروسل‌ها در مناطق فاقد پوشش‌گیاهی و خاک‌های لخت قرار دارد. نتایج این پژوهش به مدیران و برنامه‌ریزان کمک می‌کند تا با مدیریت اصولی پوشش‌گیاهی و کاهش خاک بدون پوشش گامی در راستای کاهش آلودگی‌های ناشی از گرد و غبار معلق در جوّ در این نواحی بردارند.

https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_28688_0ed7e3f01b0a266a485540e899f64ca4.pdf

دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 35 3 2024 09 22 Investigating and Analyzing the Potentials and Constraints of Tourism Development in Lenjan County Using AHP and SWOT Models بررسی و تحلیل توانمندی‌ها و تنگناهای توسعۀ گردشگری شهرستان لنجان با کاربرد مدل‌های AHP و SWOTSWOT 129 160 29007 10.22108/gep.2024.141775.1651 FA هدایت اله نوری استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشکدۀ علوم جغرافیایی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران اصغر نوروزی دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشکدۀ حقوق و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران 0000-0002-5609-7855 معصومه کرمی کله مسیحی کارشناس ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی توریسم، دانشکدۀ علوم جغرافیایی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران Journal Article 2024 06 10 Abstract Tourism is a leading development strategy in various societies, influencing economic, social, and environmental growth through targeted planning that recognizes both potentials and challenges. Lenjan County, despite facing certain limitations in tourism development, boasts diverse and significant resources related to nature and historical culture. This research aimed to identify these strengths and obstacles, proposing solutions to enhance capacities and mitigate tourism bottlenecks in Lenjan County. This study was applied in purpose and descriptive in nature and methodology. The research population consisted of tourism experts and visitors to the region with a statistical sample of 15 experts and 45 tourists. The first group analyzed tourism capabilities and limitations using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model, while insights from the second group were utilized within a SWOT framework to identify suitable solutions for tourism development based on the AHP findings. The results from the hierarchical analysis revealed that ecotourism attractions with a weight of 0.492, historical villages, and the potential for ecotourism activities (0.448), along with tangible and intangible historical-cultural heritage recognized nationally (0.330), represented the most significant tourism capabilities. Conversely, the lack of amenities and accommodation services at some historical-cultural sites (0.544) and damage to the local ecosystem due to river depletion and industrial pollution (0.427) were identified as the most critical bottlenecks. Additionally, the SWOT analysis identified 10 strengths and opportunities, yielding a final score of 3.53, while 8 weaknesses and threats scored 3.20, highlighting practical limitations on tourism development from the tourists’ perspectives. The recommended strategy for tourism development was an "active strategy". Keywords: Tourism, Tourism Development, Tourism Potentials, Tourism Bottlenecks, Lenjan. Introduction Today, tourism stands as one of the largest economic activities globally, generating significant benefits for societies. This industry serves as a crucial source of income, employment, and development of social and cultural infrastructure, impacting various facets of people's lives. For developing countries, where issues like unemployment and reliance on single-product economies are prevalent, tourism development is particularly essential. Iran is recognized as a prominent tourism hub positioned favorably for attracting both Asian and international visitors. Lenjan County with its rich array of natural and cultural attractions possesses substantial tourism potential. However, despite these resources, the region has not yet achieved significant progress in tourism development. Consequently, this research aimed to identify the opportunities and challenges associated with tourism development in Lenjan County. Materials & Methods This research was an applied survey focused on practical outcomes. It employed a descriptive-analytical approach in both its nature and methodology. The study combined library-based and field survey methods for data collection. Initially, theoretical foundations and relevant research literature were gathered through a comprehensive literature review. Subsequently, a questionnaire was administered to tourism experts, with data analysis conducted using Superdecision software. Following this, a second questionnaire was distributed to tourists to assess the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats related to tourism. The data from this section were analyzed using the SWOT model and Microsoft Excel, leading to the presentation of effective strategies. Maps were created using ArcGIS Pro software. The statistical population comprised tourism experts and visitors in Lenjan County with a sample size of 15 experts and 45 tourists. Lenjan County, covering an area of 1,171 km2, is located in the southwest of Isfahan city and is part of Isfahan Province. Research Findings Among the tourist respondents, 62% were from Isfahan Province, while 38% came from outside the province. Notably, 64% of the in-province tourists were from the city of Isfahan. Out-of-province visitors included 6% from Ilam, 17% from Tehran, 12% from Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, 17% from Khuzestan, 12% from Fars, and 18% from Qazvin. Kerman, Hormozgan, and Yazd provinces each accounted for 6% of the respondents. Regarding travel motivations, 33.3% cited recreation and leisure as their primary reason followed by 20% for nature-based tourism, 15.6% for work and employment, and 31.1% for visiting relatives and friends. Of all respondents, 64.4% reported making overnight trips, while 35.6% did not stay overnight. In terms of travel seasons, respondents noted spring and summer equally at 24.4%, with only 2.3% indicating autumn. An analysis of nature-based tourism potential in Lenjan County revealed that the criterion of "richness of ecotourism attractions" with a weight of 0.492 was the most significant factor and the highest priority. For historical and cultural tourism capabilities, the criterion of "presence of historical tourism-targeted villages and potential for developing ecotourism activities" with a weight of 0.448 was identified as the top priority. Investigating the limitations of nature-based tourism development highlighted that "damage to the ecosystem due to river depletion and industrial pollution" with a weight of 0.427 was the primary concern. Similarly, for historical and cultural tourism, the "lack of amenities and accommodation services at certain attractions" was noted as the top limitation with a weight of 0.544. The findings further identified 5 strengths, 4 weaknesses, 5 opportunities, and 4 threats related to tourism in the region. The recommended strategy was categorized as offensive (SO). Discussion of Results & Conclusion The analysis identified 10 key strengths for tourism development in the region: Richness of Ecotourism Attractions: Being weighted at 0.492, this factor was crucial for attracting visitors. Presence of Historical Tourism Villages and Potential for Ecotourism Activities: With a weight of 0.448, this criterion highlighted significant opportunities for development. Tangible and Intangible Historical-Cultural Heritage: This factor weighted at 0.330 underscored the value of cultural resources. Infrastructure for Sports and Recreational Activities: With a weight of 0.237, this indicated the importance of facilities that could support active tourism. Strategic Location on Communication Routes: Being weighted at 0.134, this factor enhanced accessibility to various regions. High Demand for Nature-Based Tourism across Age Groups: This criterion with a weight of 0.115 reflected a broad interest in nature tourism. Proximity to Major Destinations: This factor weighted at 0.099 emphasized the advantages of being near popular travel hubs. Specialized and Active Human Resources in Nature-Based Tourism: With a weight of 0.055, this pointed to the availability of local expertise. Potential for Combining Historical and Religious Tourism: This criterion with a weight of 0.046 highlighted opportunities for integrating diverse tourism offerings. Ability to Connect with Tourism Programs in Other Cities and Neighboring Provinces: Being weighted at 0.039, this emphasized the importance of collaboration in regional tourism. Conversely, the analysis identified 10 key limitations: Lack of Welfare Facilities and Accommodation Services: This issue weighted at 0.544 significantly hindered the appeal of historical and cultural attractions. Ecosystem Damage Due to River Depletion and Industrial Pollution: With a weight of 0.427, this highlighted critical environmental challenges. Insufficient Support from Local Organizations and Officials: This limitation weighted at 0.212 underscored the need for greater institutional backing. Inadequate Infrastructure and Poor Distribution of Tourism Services: With a weight of 0.197, this pointed to the necessity for improved facilities and services. Limited Access to Some Historical and Cultural Attractions: This factor with a weight of 0.182 restricted visitor engagement. Neglect of Historical Buildings: The lack of attention from authorities regarding physical deterioration and visual quality carried a weight of 0.161. Minimal Benefits for the Local Community: The seasonal and sporadic nature of tourism activities resulted in low community engagement with a weight of 0.091. High Tourist Density, Especially during Holidays: This issue weighted at 0.070 could lead to overcrowding and detracting from the visitor experience. Low Awareness among Locals of the Region's Historical and Cultural Potential: This limitation with a weight of 0.056 indicated the need for community education. Cultural Conflicts between Tourists and Local Residents: With a weight of 0.055, this highlighted challenges in integrating diverse cultural perspectives. To determine the most effective strategy for regional tourism development, internal factors received a final score of 3.60, while external factors scored 3.18. Both sets of factors suggested prioritizing offensive strategies (SO) to enhance tourism growth in the region. گردشگری از راهبردهای اصلی توسعه است و می‌تواند با برنامه‌ریزی هدفمند و مبتنی بر شناخت توانمندی‌ها و تنگناها بر توسعة اقتصادی، اجتماعی و محیط ‌زیستی هر منطقه اثرگذار باشد. شهرستان لنجان از‌لحاظ منابع و جاذبه‌های طبیعت‌محور و تاریخی-فرهنگی ظرفیت متنوع و غنی دارد؛ اما با محدودیت‌هایی نیز روبه‌روست. محققان در پژوهش حاضر به‌دنبال شناخت توانمندی‌ها و تنگناهای توسعة گردشگری و نیز ارائۀ راهبردهای مناسب هستند. این پژوهش از‌لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از‌حیث ماهیت از نوع تحقیقات توصیفی-تحلیلی است. جامعۀ آماری متشکل از صاحب‌نظران گردشگری به تعداد 15 نفر و گردشگران به تعداد 45 نفر است. از گروه اول برای تحلیل توانمندی‌ها و محدودیت‌های گردشگری با استفاده از مدل AHP پرسش و از نظر‌های گروه دوم در چهارچوب مدل SWOT برای دستیابی به راهبردها و راهکارهای مناسبِ توسعۀ گردشگری استفاده شده است. نتایج مدل AHP نشان داد که معیارهای «غنای جاذبه‌های اکوتوریستی» با وزن 492/0، «روستاهای تاریخی و امکان توسعۀ فعالیت‌های بومگردی» با وزن 448/0 و «میراث ملموس و ناملموس تاریخی–فرهنگی ثبت ملی» با وزن 330/0 به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین توانمندی‌های گردشگری منطقه است. معیارهای «کمبود امکانات رفاهی و خدمات اقامتی در برخی جاذبه‌های تاریخی–فرهنگی» با وزن 544/0 و «آسیب‌دیدگی اکوسیستم با وزن 427/0 به‌عنوان جدّی‌ترین تنگناهای گردشگری شناخته شده است. با توجه به نتایج مدل SWOT 10 نقطة قوت و فرصت با امتیاز نهایی 53/3 به‌عنوان مزیت‌ها و 8 نقطۀ ضعف و تهدید با امتیاز نهایی 20/3 به‌عنوان محدودیت‌های مؤثر بر توسعۀ گردشگری شهرستان مشخص شد. در این میان، راهبرد مناسب توسعۀ گردشگری نیز «راهبرد فعّال» است.

https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_29007_09d95f230c6849b537e14cfc26ac5155.pdf

دانشگاه اصفهان جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی 2008-5362 35 3 2024 09 22 Impact of Westerly Winds Troughs and Ridges on Droughts Extent in Iran اثر موقعیت ناوه و پشتۀ بادهای غربی بر گسترۀ خشکسالی‌های ایران 161 188 29017 10.22108/gep.2024.142104.1655 FA سوسن حیدری دانش آموخته دکترای آب‌و‌هواشناسی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکدۀ جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران 0000-0002-9749-9025 مصطفی کریمی دانشیار گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکدۀ جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران قاسم عزیزی استاد گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکدۀ جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران علی اکبر شمسی‌پور دانشیار گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکدۀ جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران Journal Article 2024 07 10 Abstract The consecutive droughts experienced in Iran over recent years have highlighted the need to analyze atmospheric structures and their effects on precipitation patterns and drought conditions. This study investigated the location and spatial variations of key atmospheric circulation components, particularly synoptic systems, such as ridges and troughs, in relation to the extent of monthly droughts across Iran. Using ERA5 data, which included 500 hPa geopotential heights and precipitation data with a spatial resolution of 0.25°, the analysis covered the period from 1979 to 2021. Monthly drought extent percentages (September to May) were calculated using the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) and categorized into 5 levels. The axes, as well as the southern and northern limits of ridges and troughs, were extracted and mapped from western Iran to the eastern Atlantic. The results indicated that during periods of widespread drought, the trough axis shifted from 30°E in September and May to 10°E in other months, while the ridge axis remained centered over central to western Iran throughout the year. Conversely, in months without drought, the trough axis was located between 30° and 40°E and the ridge axis spanned from 0° to 20°E. Notably, during widespread droughts, the southern limit of troughs was observed over North Africa, while the northern limit of ridges extended from Russia to Central Asia. The displacement of ridge axes between drought and non-drought months (approximately 50°) was significantly greater than the shifts observed in the trough axes. This displacement, particularly of the southern trough limit and the northern ridge limit, accounted for the decreased precipitation and increased drought conditions observed in December, January, and March. The eastward and westward shifts of ridges and troughs might indicate a change in Iran’s precipitation regime influenced by variations in regional atmospheric circulation within the broader context of planetary circulation. Keywords: Ridge, Trough, Synoptic Systems, Westerly Winds, Drought, Iran. Introduction Westerly winds are a vital component of mid-latitude atmospheric systems, playing a crucial role in transferring weather conditions across different regions. In the northern hemisphere during winter, these winds generate synoptic systems that can extend from several hundred to several thousand kilometers, forming 3 primary long waves: the long wave of eastern America, eastern Asia, and the Mediterranean. Research suggests that a key convergence point for the westerlies at the 500 hPa level is situated over the Mediterranean Sea. The strong meridional flow of these winds, particularly in winter, significantly influences the weather patterns of the affected areas. Moreover, the Mediterranean region is impacted by air masses originating from the Atlantic Ocean, resulting in a northward influx toward the western Mediterranean. The Mediterranean long wave is shaped by the interactions between subtropical high pressure and the polar vortex with its seesaw pattern reflecting meridional movements. These atmospheric flows characterized by deep troughs and strong ridges have a profound effect on weather conditions and precipitation across various regions. Spatial variations in the Westerly winds depend on the fluctuations in the range and depth of pressure systems, which are crucial for the transport of air masses and moisture. These changes can lead to significant precipitation anomalies and contribute to widespread droughts. In Southwest Asia, particularly in Iran, the high variability in precipitation often results in severe and prolonged drought conditions. This study aimed to examine the impacts of changes in mid-latitude atmospheric circulation patterns on drought the occurrences in Iran, focusing on the roles of troughs and ridges in influencing precipitation and drought events in this region. Materials & Methods To achieve the research objective of examining droughts in Iran with the spatial changes of troughs and ridges, we utilized monthly data on precipitation and geopotential height (in gpm) at the 500 hPa level. This level was chosen because it represented a critical point for westerly winds, where friction was minimal. The data were collected and analyzed for the period from 1979 to 2021. The Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) was employed to identify monthly droughts using monthly precipitation data from the ECMWF- ERA5 database. The RAI assessed drought severity and classified it into 5 categories: very severe, severe, moderate, mild, and non-drought. Geographic positions of the trough and ridge axes spanning from 40°W to 70°E and 10°N to 70°N were extracted using ArcGIS software. We calculated the average positions of these axes for each month. Finally, the relationship between the spatial changes of the trough and ridge features and the extent of drought areas in Iran was analyzed using regression analysis. Research Findings The results indicated that the axes of troughs and ridges in the Mediterranean wave activity region exhibited significant spatial shifts in relation to drought areas. When drought extent in Iran was limited (less than 20% of the area), the ridge axes were positioned from the central to western Mediterranean, occasionally extending to the eastern North Atlantic. In contrast, during widespread droughts (over 80% of the area), the ridge axes shifted to span from the eastern Mediterranean to western Iran. Conversely, the trough axes were found in the central to western Mediterranean during extensive drought periods, while during less severe droughts, they were located in the eastern Mediterranean up to 40°E longitude. The study also revealed that the southern limit of the troughs—indicative of their depth and southward extension—shifted southward and westward during widespread droughts. The positioning of the ridges and troughs was crucial for determining Iran's precipitation patterns. Specifically, a ridge over the eastern Mediterranean was associated with reduced rainfall and increased drought severity. Changes in the spatial positions of these ridges and troughs significantly impacted drought conditions in Iran. Shifts in the ridge axes toward the eastern Mediterranean and trough axes toward the western Mediterranean correlated with decreased rainfall and a higher incidence of drought in Iran. Conversely, strong ridges over western Europe and the western Mediterranean could enhance precipitation in Iran by facilitating the formation of deep troughs in the eastern Mediterranean. These findings underscored the critical influence of regional atmospheric circulation patterns on Iran's climate, particularly regarding rainfall distribution and occurrence of droughts. Discussion of Results & Conclusion This study explored the relationship between drought extent in Iran and the spatial positioning of key synoptic atmospheric systems, emphasizing the role of Mediterranean troughs and ridges associated with the westerlies. Analysis of monthly ERA5 precipitation and 500 hPa geopotential height data revealed that the location of these systems significantly influenced drought severity and extent across Iran. Shifts in their position or wavelength within the Mediterranean wave track of the westerlies affected climate and precipitation patterns in Southwest Asia, including Iran. During widespread droughts, Mediterranean troughs shifted eastward toward the Atlantic and western Mediterranean, resulting in the formation of a strong ridges over the eastern Mediterranean. This shift obstructed rain-bearing systems from reaching Iran, exacerbating drought conditions. Conversely, when the trough axis moved toward central Mediterranean areas, the eastern ridge expanded over Iran, further contributing to drought. In periods of limited drought, the trough axis was situated in the eastern Mediterranean and sometimes extended over Southwest Asia, while the ridge axis remained active over the western Mediterranean. These configurations facilitated greater moisture influx into Iran, mitigating drought severity. The findings suggested that shifts in the southern and northern boundaries of the trough and ridge axes closely correlated with monthly drought trends. For example, the westward shift of ridge axes in October, April, and particularly November, alongside the eastward movement of troughs, corresponded with reduced drought extent, allowing westerly winds and moist flows to penetrate Iran. These results provided valuable insights into how drought conditions in Iran were influenced by the positioning of Mediterranean troughs and ridges, which were also affected by broader atmospheric circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). خشکسالی‌های متوالی سال‌های اخیر در ایران اهمیت تحلیل ساختارهای جوّی و اثر آن را بر الگوهای بارش و خشکسالی افزایش داده است. هدف از پژوهش حاضر بررسی موقعیت و تغییرات مکانی اجزای کلیدی گردش جوّ و سامانه‌های همدید منطقه از‌جمله پشته‌ها و ناوه‌های جوّی در ارتباط با گسترۀ خشکسالی‌های ماهانۀ ایران است. در این مطالعه از داده‌های ژئوپتانسیل تراز 500 هکتوپاسکال و بارش داده‌های ERA5 با دقت 25/0 درجه از سال 1979 تا 2021 استفاده شد. درصد مساحت خشکسالی‌های ماهانه (سپتامبر تا می) با شاخص RAI در پنج طبقه محاسبه و موقعیت محور و حد جنوبی و شمالی ناوه‌ها و پشته‌ها در گستره‌ای از غرب ایران تا شرق اقیانوس اطلس استخراج و ترسیم شد. نتایج نشان داد که محور ناوه در خشکسالی‌های فراگیر از 30 درجۀ شرقی در سپتامبر و می به 10 درجۀ شرقی در سایر ماه‌ها و محور پشته در تمام ماه‌ها در محدودۀ مرکز تا غرب ایران و در‌مقابل، محور ناوه‌ها در ماه‌های فاقد خشکسالی بین 30 تا 40 درجۀ شرقی و محور پشته‌ها در ماه‌های فاقد خشکسالی از 0 تا 20 درجۀ شرقی مستقر بوده است. حد جنوبی ناوه‌ها در خشکسالی‌های فراگیر در شمال آفریقا و حد شمالی پشته‌ها در محدودۀ روسیه تا آسیای میانه مشاهده شد. میزان جابه‌جایی محور پشته‌‌ها بین ماه‌های خشکسالی فراگیر و فاقد خشکسالی (حدود 50 درجه) بسیار بیشتر از تغییر موقعیت محور ناوه‌‌ها بوده است. جابه‌جایی حد جنوبی ناوه‌‌ها و به‌خصوص حد شمالی پشته‌‌‌ها، کاهش بارش و افزایش خشکسالی را در ماه‌های دسامبر، ژانویه و مارس (در پژوهش‌های قبلی به‌طور مشخص به آن اشاره شده است) توجیه می‌کند؛ به‌طوری ‌که در این ماه‌‌ها به‌ترتیب پشته‌ها و ناوه‌‌ها جابه‌جایی شرق‌ و غرب‌سو داشته است. این شاید نمایانگر تغییر رژیم بارش ایران متأثر از تغییر اجزای گردش جوّ منطقه در بستر گردش جوّ سیاره‌ای باشد.

https://gep.ui.ac.ir/article_29017_a3716f88f1aa02653497aff4821fedb0.pdf