در این تحقیق سعی شده است تغییرات دما و بارش و همچنین بعضی از شاخصهای حدّی موثر بر بخش کشاورزی در دوره اقلیمی 1418-1389 در سطح استان خراسان رضوی ارزیابی گردد. با استفاده از دادههای آب وهوایی که توسط مدل GCM ECHO-G سناریوی A1 برای دوره آینده برآورد شده است، میزان تغییرات 8 شاخص موثر، نسبت به میانگین دوره گذشته محاسبه شده است. نتایج حاکی از افزایش متوسط درجه حرارت (5/0 درجه سلسیوسی)، طول دوره رشد(17روز)، میانگین بارندگی(7 میلیمتر)، تعداد بارشهای سنگین(یک روز) و ضریب تغیرات بارندگی (5/1 درصد) و همچنین کاهش در طول دوره یخبندان(7/14روز)، تعداد روزهای یخبندان(15روز) و تعداد روزهای همراه با بارندگی (9روز) را در دوره اقلیمی آینده نشان می دهد. نتیجه تحلیل فضایی که از ترکیب هشت لایه میزان تغییرات شاخصها در محیط GIS صورت گرفته، نشان می دهد، میزان تغییرات اقلیمی در سطح منطقه مورد مطالعه بین 46 تا 65 درصد خواهد بود. (از حداقل 0 تا حداکثر100درصد). نواحی عمده استان میزان تغییراتی بین 50 تا 60 درصد را تجربه خواهند کرد. بیشترین و شدیدترین تغییرات در مناطق شمالی استان خراسان رضوی و دشت مشهد رخ خواهد داد.
عنوان مقاله [English]
Zoning of climate changes rate base on agriculture approach in future climatic period (case study Khorasan Razavi province)
Â Zoning of climate changes rate base on agriculture approach in future climatic period (case study Khorasan Razavi province) Â Â Â Â R. Esmaile. ( * ),Â PhD student of climatology, Islamic Azad University of Najaf Abad, Najaf Abad, Iran. Â email: firstname.lastname@example.org Â Â Â A. Gandomkar.Â Assistant professor of climatology, Islamic Azad University of Najaf Abad, Najaf Abad, Iran . Â Â Â H. A. Ghayoor.Â Professor of Hydrology , University of Isfahan , Isfahan , Iran . Â Received: 21 Desember 2009 / Accepted: 17 August 2010, 9-12 P Â Â Â Â Â Extended Abstract Â 1- Introduction Â The trend analysis of the historical data and the output of Global Climate Models (GCMs) show that climate change is inevitable. Â According to the current trend, world population would be increased twice during in the one hundred futures. Climate change has most important in agriculture aspect because the agricultural section provides food for people and climate change influence the safety food. One of the climate changes is boundary replacement of forest and agricultural areas toward north. Â Â Â According to the report of Intergovernmental panel of climate change (IPCC), the most important results of climate change will be as follow: Â - Intensifying climatic cricis Â -Warming of high latitudes, Â - Decreasing of available water resource and Â - Development of monsoon rainfall toward the poles. Â Thus, the clear characteristic of climate change should be explored in studying critical phenomena spatially in agriculture which is more important. In this research, the changes of eight indices effective on agriculture have been investigated for future climatic period (2010- 2039). In the next step, spatial analysis has been done for anomaly of each index as separately and together . Â Â Â 2- Methodology Â In this research, the changes of variables such as temperature, rainfall, growth season length, freezing season length, coefficient of variations (CV)for rainfall, number of rainy days and heavy rain frequency (over 10 mm) were investigated in the last period (1964-2005) and future period (2010-2039). In this research, have been used 8 synoptic stations. Three stations including Mashhad, Torbat-e Heydariyeh and Sabzevar are located into Khorasan Razavi province. Â The future climate conditions have been predicted using the output of GCM ECHO-G model and A1 scenario. In the next step, the data has been downscaling using LARS WG model on the daily scale. Then, the changes of each variable which mentioned above have been calculated in the last and future period. Â Ultimately, the anomaly map for each index was drawn by GIS software. Â Â 3- Discussion Â According to the obtained results of this research, the temperature would be increased for 0.5 degree centigrade in the future period (2010-2039). The amounts of temperature increased for Mashhad, Sabzevar and Torbat-e Heydariyeh would be 0.38, 0.46 and 0.36 degree centigrade respectively. Â Amount of changes for rainfall is not unique. For example, the amount of rainfall in two stations including Mashhad and Torbat-e Heydariyeh have been increased 20.7 and 12.5 millimeter respectively while Sabzevar station has been experienced the decreasing trend of 8 millimeters. Also, the change of growth season length was very considerable. The growth season length would be increased 17 days in total of Khorasan Razavi province. But freezing season length and the number of freezing days would be decreased 14.7 and 14 days respectively. Â While the average rainfall would be increased in the future period, the results of this research showed that the number of rainy days would be decreased. The increase of heavy rainy days frequency and unsuitable distribution of rainfall might have the negative effects in the agricultural section. Â Â 4- Conclusion Â The Results of this research showed that variables such as temperature and precipitation would be increased during future 30 years (2010-2039). This increasing for temperature and precipitation were calculated 0.5 degree centigrade and 7 millimeter respectively. Also the amount of growth season length, the number of heavy rainy days and rainfall variations coefficient would be increased. The mount of indices such as freezing period, freeze season length and number of rainy days would be decreased. Based on spatial analysis on all of the GIS layers of the anomaly maps showed that the rate of climate changes would be nearly between 46-65 percent. The most changes would be occurred in Mashhad plain and the northern region of Khorasan Razavi province and central regions such as Torbat-e Heydariyeh would have the less change. Â Key words: Climate Changes, Statistical downscaling, LARS WG Model, Climatic critical indices, Climate models. Â Â Â References Â Arnon, I. (1999). principal of agriculturein dry regions, evaz kochaki and afshen soltani, amozeshekheshavarz publisher,first edition Â Esmaili, reza. (2007). An Analysis of Spring frost And its Impact in Agriculture: An Synoptic-statistical Perspective Case study: Mahvelat Region, The dissertation of m. sc. In physical geography and (climate in environmental planning), the university of sistan and baluchestan Gradute school Â Esmaili, reza., majed habibinokhandan & gholam abas fallah ghalhari. 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