نویسندگان

دانشگاه خوارزمی

چکیده

شناخت مسائل روستاها و ارائه راهکارهای مناسب برای آنها از اقدامات اساسی در راستای نیل به توسعه پایدار روستایی است. یکی از دغدغه‏های اصلی مدیران و برنامه‎ریزان منطقه‎ای، مخاطرات طبیعی در مناطق مختلف است. شهرستان طارم در شمال استان زنجان به دلیل ساختار خاص زمین‎شناسی و توپوگرافی آن، آسیب‎پذیری بالایی در برابر خطر زمین لرزه دارد. در این تحقیق، تلاش شده است تا با استفاده از مدل فرایند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی و روش تحلیل چندمعیاری فضایی و با بکارگیری پنج شاخص محیطی و جمعیتی به پهنه‎بندی سکونتگاه‎های روستایی در برابر خطر زلزله اقدام شود. برای این کار، ابتدا پارامترهای موثر شامل: وجود گسل، جنس زمین، شیب، زمین‎لغزش و تراکم جمعیت انتخاب شده و سپس لایه‎های اطلاعاتی آنها در محیط GIS تهیه و کلاس‎بندی شد. وزن‎دهی به معیارها با استفاده از منطق فازی و مدل تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP) صورت گرفته و نقشه نهایی پهنه‏بندی خطر زلزله در چهار کلاس پهنه‎های با خطر پائین، خطر متوسط، خطر بالا و خطر خیلی بالا به دست آمد. نتایج حاصل از این تحقیق نشان می‎دهد که بخش عمده‎ای از محدوده شهرستان طارم و سکونتگاه‎های روستایی منطقه در پهنه‎های با خطر بالا (45.71 درصد) و خیلی بالا (14.71 درصد) قرار گرفته است. با توجه به پهنه‎های خطر بالقوه، ضروری است تا محل مناسبی برای اسکان اضطراری در منطقه مکان‎یابی و تجهیز شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Rural Settlements Vulnerability Zoning for the Earthquake Risk Using AHP Model in GIS Software, a Case of Chavarzagh District in Tarom Township (Iran)

نویسندگان [English]

  • H. Dadgar
  • H. Jalalian

Kharazmi University

چکیده [English]

 Extended Abstract IntroductionRecognizing the problems in rural areas and presentation of its
suitable solution is one of the essentials to the sustainable rural
development. One of the mental disturbances of the regional managers and
planners is the natural hazards in different regions. Tarom area in north of Zanjan
province (northwest Iran) has a high degree of earthquake risk due to its
special geological and topographic structure, as the 21 June 1990 earthquake
had showed this unpleasant reality. Regarding the necessary and priority for
recognition this hazard and presentation the best solution for the planning
them, in this research it has tried to zoning the earthquake vulnerability risk
via the suitable methods.Theoretical BasesThere are numerous methods for assessment the settlement vulnerability
against earthquake. However, since there are many factors to evaluate the
settlement risk, so using the spatial multi-criteria analysis methods comes to
hand results that are more effective. Nowadays, geographical information
systems (GIS) have come as a powerful computer technique, which has the ability
to comprehensive spatial analysis, databases management and data visualizing. Expectation
to this, in sciences related to the earth, it is commonly use on informational
systems based on GIS for zoning the natural hazard risks such as earthquake and
landslide.  Methodology In this research, it has
tried to zoning the rural settlements for the risk of earthquake using AHP
model and spatial multi-criteria analysis method with five indices of
environmental and population. For operate this, first the effective factors as
the land kind, fault, sloop, landslide and population
density were selected and then, the layers of those data obtained and
classified in ARC GIS software. The criteria distinction was based on linear
function in AHP model and the end, the final map of the zoning for the
earthquake vulnerability risk produced in four classes contains low, medium,
high and very high-risk zones.DiscussionThe case study of this research has very high potential risk of
earthquake via the faults mostly the main faults and its alluvial unstable
lands and sloops. Since in the past times the local and spatial allocating of
villages were mainly based on natural factors and socio-economic trend, such as
accessibility to water and soil resources and also the sufficient security,
consequently it has taken into consideration very few about the natural
irresistible such as earthquake. so that many of villages are located beside the
main factors or in unsuitable land structure. Hence, in case of earthquake,
these settlements can be very vulnerable, as 21 June 1990 earthquake had showed
this. In addition, any ignorance to natural hazards will consequent stagnancy
of economic and agricultural activities in the area and led them to challenge
in various forms.  Conclusion The results of the research
show the main portion of the area and its rural settlements are in high (percentage
45.71) and very high (percentage 14.71) risk zones. Only 30.30% of the area is
comforted in medium risk zone and finally, 9.29% in low risk zone. In the other
hand, more than 60 percent of the studied area settled in high and very high-risk
zones, which contain 30 villages with 13219 populations in total.Suggestion





















Regarding to the risk potential zones, a suitable site for the
emergency shelter must be allocates and equip in the area. Based
on this zoning study, maps of the zones must be produced in large scales in
order to use in development planning for infrastructures and settlements based
on these risk zones and conformably to national regulations and provisions for
the buildings.It
is suggest to more study in this case based on geological, environmental,
construction engineering factors to the population, and activity cores of the
area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Rural Vulnerability
  • Earthquake
  • Fuzzy Logic
  • Tarom