وجود چالشهای متعدد در نواحی روستایی، پژوهشگران جغرافیا را به انجام پژوهش برای رفع این چالشها واداشته است. یکی از ارکان تأثیرگذار بر دستیابی نواحی روستایی به توسعه، شیوة ادارة آنها و نحوة سیاستگذاری است. آیندهپژوهی برای نگاشتن آینده و تغییرات محتمل در زمینههای ملی، منطقهای و سازمانی بهمنظور پاسخ به تغییرات استفاده میشود. این پژوهش بهدنبال تبیین شاخصهای اثرگذار بر سیاستگذاری برای مدیریت نواحی روستایی استان کرمان است تا به گرفتن تصمیمات دقیقتر برای آیندة روستاها و سیاستگذاری متناسب با این شاخصها کمک کند؛ درواقع پرسش اصلی این است که اثرگذارترین شاخصها در سیاستگذاری برای مدیریت نواحی روستایی استان کرمان در آینده کداماند.
روش پژوهش، توصیفیتحلیلی است و با دید سیستماتیک و ساختاری با رویکرد آیندهپژوهی و استفاده از نرمافزار MICMAC انجام شده است. نتایج نشان داد سیستم موجود سیاستگذاری برای مدیریت نواحی روستایی در استان کرمان پایدار و مطلوب نیست. تأثیرگذارترین شاخصها در سیاستگذاری برای مدیریت نواحی روستایی استان کرمان، محیط (با امتیاز 986)، روستاییت (با امتیاز 918)، اقتصاد (با امتیاز 884) و فرهنگ (با امتیاز 850) است؛ همچنین تأثیرپذیرترین آنها، شاخصهای محیط (با امتیاز 952)، اقتصاد (با امتیاز 952)، شناخت شرایط موجود (با امتیاز 918) و پایداری سیاستها (با امتیاز 884) بوده است. برای سیاستگذاری بهتر و مدیریت مطلوب نواحی روستایی استان در آینده باید به متغیرهای راهبردی توجه کرد؛ این متغیرها به ترتیب محیط بهمثابة عامل مؤثر، روستاییت یا هویت محیطی- اجتماعی و هویت اقتصادی روستا و تأثیر و اهداف اقتصادی سیاستها هستند؛ همچنین میتوان با دستکاری و بهبود متغیرهای اقتصاد، نقش دولت و افزایش مشارکت مردم برای تکامل و پایداری و بهبود سیستم مدیریت روستایی استان اقدام کرد.
عنوان مقاله [English]
Explaining the Indicators affecting Policy-making for Rural Management (Case Study: Kerman Province)
The existence of numerous challenges and problems in rural areas has forced geographers to do their research to solve these challenges. It can be said that one of the effective pillars in achieving rural development is the way decisions and policies are made. Futures studies are used to write about the future and possible changes in national, regional, and organizational contexts to respond to change. This study sought to explain the effective indicators in policy-making for rural regions management of Kerman province to help make more accurate decisions for the future of villages and policy-making appropriate to these indicators. In this regard, the main question was: What are the most effective indicators in policy-making for the management of rural areas of Kerman province in the future? The research method in this study was descriptive-analytical. The study followed a systematic and structural view with the method of futures studies and the use of MICMAC software. The results showed that the current policy-making system for the management of rural areas in Kerman province cannot be considered stable and desirable. The most influential indicators in policy-making for the management of rural areas of Kerman province were the environment (score 986), rurality (score 918), economy (score 884), and culture of rural people (score 850). Also, the indicators of the environment (score 952), economy (score 952), the sustainability of policies (score 884) were the most dependent factors. For better policy-making and optimal management of rural areas of the province in the future, strategic variables should be considered including environmental variables as an effective factor and the resulting form of policies, rurality or environmental-social identity, the economic identity of the village, the impact, and economic goals of policies, respectively. It is also possible to develop and sustain the rural management system of the province by manipulating and improving the variables of the economy, the role of the government, and increasing the participation of the people.
The need for the development and the existence of various challenges such as migration, poverty, and economic problems in rural areas, especially in developing countries, has led researchers to work to solve these problems. In this regard, governments make decisions and implement programs called policy-making. The executors of these decisions in the rural environment are the village managers. Because rural areas are different, policy-making to manage them must be appropriate by these features. In fact, in this study, the authors sought to identify and explain the influential indicators in policy-making for the management of rural areas of Kerman province to predict the impact of each indicator, and how each indicator will function in the future. With the complexity of development programs, it seems that it is necessary to adopt futuristic approaches. Futures studies are more capable of analyzing the situation in the future than other methods, and decisions based on this method can be long-term. It can be said that in order to achieve the goals of development and progress, the most important features that are important for policy-making in rural areas must be recognized and the impact of these factors on each other must be determined. Since our goal was to plan for the future of villages and to manage them properly in the future, structural analysis methods and futures research software were used in this research.
The research method in this research was descriptive-analytical in nature and practical in terms of purpose. In this research, with a systematic and structural view, we studied theoretical literature in the field of rural policy-making and management. Using a questionnaire, the status of these indicators and the impact of each in the rural areas of Kerman province were scored by the technique of interplay (structural analysis method). This information was analyzed in MICMAC software and finally, the most important and influential factors for policy-making and rural management were identified. The study area of this research was rural areas of Kerman province. According to the 2016 census, Kerman province had a population of 3164718 people, of which 1302557 people lived in villages, which constituted 41% of the province's population.
The structural analysis method was used by the software to obtain the main effective indicators and the influential indicators for the future of policy-making in the study area. Based on the number of variables, the dimensions of the matrix were 13 x 13, and with the formation of this matrix, the impact of each index on another index was determined by weighing from 0 to 3. The variables of the role of culture in the policy-making, management of rural areas, and the historical course of the management of rural communities in the province were among the influential variables, the variables of economy, government, and participation for policy-making were among the two-sided variables. Also, the variables of policy features and management of rural communities, policy management, multiplicity, the inadequate status of the current policy method, and specification pattern characteristics were known as influential or dependent variables and urbanized policy variable as the independent variable. The most relevant and strongest variables were the environment, rurality, economy, government, and participation. These variables are in fact key and strategic variables in policy-making and any decision to manage rural areas of Kerman province in the future. The indicators of the environment, rurality, economy, and culture had the greatest direct impact and the indicators of the environment, economic, and disproportionate status of the current policy-making method for the management of rural areas in Kerman province had the highest direct dependence.
The results showed that due to the scattering of variables on the coordinate axis, it cannot be said that the current policy-making system for the management of rural areas in Kerman province is stable. Therefore, for better policy-making for the management of rural areas in the province in the future, we must consider strategic variables. These variables are the environment as an effective factor and the resulting form of policies, rurality or socio-environmental identity, and economic identity of the village, the impact and economic goals of policies, the role of government, and attention to rural participation in policy-making and decision-making. In fact, our key player in the future is the environment as an influential factor and the basis of policy-making. The environment is a form and the result of policy-making. We can also help to the evolution, sustainability, and improvement of the province's rural management system by changing and improving the variables of the economy, the role of the government, and increasing people's participation in policy-making.
Keywords: Rural Development, Policy-Making, Rural Management, Kerman Province.
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